What I Fear Will Happen To Iraq - TranceAddict Forums

TranceAddict Forums (www.tranceaddict.com/forums)
- Political Discussion / Debate
-- What I Fear Will Happen To Iraq

Posted by Marc Summers on Feb-01-2006 00:36:

What I Fear Will Happen To Iraq

NOTE: The US-led invasion of Iraq already happened. Nothing can change these events. So, opinions on the invasion itself, in this thread, are inconsequential.

What happens when the troops leave, and Iraq is left to shape themselves into a stable country, with a society that respects them? Can they do it? What will this government do to stop any hostile groups that may spawn in their country? How long will this government last?

Iraq, and it's people, obviously, are influenced by nations around them. Saudi Arabia is a deeply religious state due to the majority of people practicing wahhabism. Iran is also a conservative islam state, mainly because of the shah's attempts to westernize the country. Compared to it's neighbors, Kuwait is a very modernized, and westernized country, due to its lucrative oil exportation. All these countries influence Iraq and it's people, and vice versa.

When all foreign troops leave Iraq, the government will have to make a decision that could make, or break, it's survival. The Iraqi government will have to choose to embrace free democracy, or to drop it. If they embrace free democracy, many things will come to Iraqi society that might not be appealing to the majority. Westernization is the worst thing that could come with free democracy. Capitalism and private enterprise could taint Iraqi society, and could also corrupt the government. Organized crime could seize and carve out privately-owned businesses, similar to what happened in Russia, Moscow to be more specific.

A quick and abrupt change to westernization is very dangerous, especially in a islamic country. This new lifestyle would most definately alarm the conservative islamic groups. There would be uprisings, similar to what happened in Iran, and eventually, there would be an overthrown government.

I believe that a revolution, or possibly even a civil war will shape the country into what it will be in 15 to 20 years.

Your thoughts?

Posted by Shakka on Feb-01-2006 01:21:

THE Marc Summers? I loved you on Double Dare!

Posted by Marc Summers on Feb-01-2006 03:47:

quote:
Originally posted by Shakka
THE Marc Summers? I loved you on Double Dare!

OMG THE Shakka?! I didn't know drinks can type!

That's how retarded it sounds when you take these names literally.

Twat.

Posted by InterMilan31 on Feb-01-2006 03:55:

quote:
Originally posted by Marc Summers
OMG THE Shakka?! I didn't know drinks can type!

That's how retarded it sounds when you take these names literally.

Twat.

Posted by Marc Summers on Feb-01-2006 03:59:

Great, what we have here are a bunch of elitists.

I was just trying to share my theory, and instead of criticism, I get comments I would expect from the c0r.

Posted by InterMilan31 on Feb-01-2006 03:59:

In all seriousness I agree with you. I believe that if Iraq is gonna sort its self out it needs to be done by themselves. Iraq could become a succesful economical country like Kuwait/Dubai is due to oil but I dont think it can ever return to normality if there is a dominant prescense(sp) there of troops ordered to "stabalize" and implay democracy

Posted by InterMilan31 on Feb-01-2006 04:00:

quote:
Originally posted by Marc Summers
Great, what we have here are a bunch of elitists.

I was just trying to share my theory, and instead of criticism, I get comments I would expect from the c0r.

I personally had to do that..it was a great show i grew up on it

Posted by Marc Summers on Feb-01-2006 04:03:

sorry, I shouldn't have gotten so angry.

it's late, state of the union address, AND the democrats response pissed me off.

Good night.

Posted by Kapedano on Feb-01-2006 04:05:

quote:
Originally posted by InterMilan31
In all seriousness I agree with you. I believe that if Iraq is gonna sort its self out it needs to be done by themselves. Iraq could become a succesful economical country like Kuwait/Dubai is due to oil but I dont think it can ever return to normality if there is a dominant prescense(sp) there of troops ordered to "stabalize" and implay democracy

OMG..I didnt know your smart..

Posted by InterMilan31 on Feb-01-2006 04:07:

quote:
Originally posted by Marc Summers
sorry, I shouldn't have gotten so angry.

it's late, state of the union address, AND the democrats response pissed me off.

Good night.

that guy was a n00b i turned it off after he gave his first 5 min to the tourist board of Vagina(i mean Virgina)

gouuryella

Posted by Kapedano on Feb-01-2006 04:57:

quote:
Originally posted by InterMilan31

gouuryella

i still love you my fellow interist

Posted by InterMilan31 on Feb-01-2006 05:30:

quote:
Originally posted by gouuryella
i still love you my fellow interist

YAY

Posted by Yohan on Feb-01-2006 05:57:

Personally I'm starting to lean towards full withdrawal of US and Coalition troops from Iraq not because it is the right thing to do, but because it may be the best thing to do, at least from US perspective.

Well, more because i don't think US is willing to pay the price to see the fruition of Iraq becoming a stable democracy or whatever. The price being blood of sons and daughters of Americans.

If/when US troops leave, the insurgents will start fighting each other, esp. Shia and Sunni militants and AQ backed insurgents. Already there are signs of that fracture. UN will probably not want to get involved with peacekeeping force, not after the attempt in Palestine in mid 90s.

Whether we like it or not, religious fanaticism has proven to be the superior morale booster in this case. Simply because it is harder to fight against people who believe that fighting and dying against the infidels will get them to Paradise to fuck some virgins, compounded by problem of not killing innocent people. (which the insurgents want hurt, to turn more people against the infidels) Plus whenever US forces kill an innocent person, helluva a lot of negative press comes out. (I wonder how many of those critics actually be in a situation where you can't tell whether someone is trying to kill you or give you a cookie, because rarely you can differentiate between the two)

What I'm saying is that the price has gone up high, and US may not wish to, or simply can't, pay the price anymore.

Posted by Shakka on Feb-01-2006 15:42:

quote:
Originally posted by Marc Summers
OMG THE Shakka?! I didn't know drinks can type!

That's how retarded it sounds when you take these names literally.

Twat.

Awwww, get over it. Nothing wrong with a little fun here and there.

I too, thought the Democratic response was pretty fucking weak (though the SOTU was pretty uninspiring too). Tim Kaine is a douche with bad hair.

Posted by Lepanto on Feb-01-2006 15:53:

Posted by KeSs on Feb-02-2006 06:09:

A civil war in that country is unavoidable

Posted by OurManFlint on Feb-02-2006 18:55:

I don't think the US really thought about impacts of a quick and forced change of government. I mean look at the history of East Europe in the 1800's. That will tell you everything you need to know about nationalist conservatism and the clash with liberalism.