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Any stock market investors?

Any stock market investors out there? I was thinking of posting a thread on stock picks but only if there are people who actually play the market..

There is already one. One which was hijacked by the Aussie tasmanian devil!

Re: Any stock market investors?

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Originally posted by Krypton Any stock market investors out there? I was thinking of posting a thread on stock picks but only if there are people who actually play the market..

Every day from 7-5:30

Re: Re: Any stock market investors?

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Originally posted by Shakka Every day from 7-5:30

What is your strategy? Value, Growth, GARP, CANSLIM, technical, fundamental?

Currently, I'm mostly a Value investor, looking for the undervalued companies. But CANSLIM is a very good system that I'm looking at.

What's your favorite pick? You got target prices? Or do you use trend lines?

Re: Re: Re: Any stock market investors?

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Originally posted by Krypton What is your strategy? Value, Growth, GARP, CANSLIM, technical, fundamental? Currently, I'm mostly a Value investor, looking for the undervalued companies. But CANSLIM is a very good system that I'm looking at. What's your favorite pick? You got target prices? Or do you use trend lines?

what are your picks? lol

Re: Re: Re: Any stock market investors?

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Originally posted by Krypton What is your strategy? Value, Growth, GARP, CANSLIM, technical, fundamental? Currently, I'm mostly a Value investor, looking for the undervalued companies. But CANSLIM is a very good system that I'm looking at. What's your favorite pick? You got target prices? Or do you use trend lines?

We run a couple of long/short funds. CANSLIM is a William O'neil strategy, right? I have one of his books at home though I haven't really put it to good use. I think O'neil often ends up being a classic momentum investor, but if your timing is right, it can certainly work. My team and I are pretty much generalists so we will look for good ideas just about anywhere, though our style is about 95% equities and maybe 5% options. We do both a top-down and a bottom-up approach and often use technical analysis in concert with our fundamental research to try and more effectively manage risk and improve our timing. My favorite pick probably changes day-to-day, but we've made great money with Akamai, though the stock has had a huge multi-year run, is getting extremely expensive, and is routinely subject to rumors of new competition. Some of our favorite shorts are in the sub-prime mortgage origination space (which I actually mentinoned on this board about a year ago). However, I cannot recommend short selling to retail investors as the risk is theoretically unlimited. We've been starting to see cracks in the sub-prime foundation for several quarters now and we think things there could potentially get a lot uglier before they get better. Anyhoo...

Most stock markets look overvalued here in my opinion. The US is about to enter a recession, and usually when the US sneezes, the world catches a cold. If you insist on being in stocks, I recommend you stick with value...solid companies that pay dividends, as well as resource stocks with REAL assets backing the companies (oil, gas, gold, silver, etc). There is no shame in staying mostly cash, especially when you can get a juicy 5% guaranteed yield right now.

Bankrate.com shows some banks is offering 6 months CD's that pay around 5.3%

No shame in parking a little cash there until things settle down economically and politically in the world.

Re: Re: Re: Re: Any stock market investors?

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Originally posted by Dopey what are your picks? lol

My favorite one right now is BJS.

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We run a couple of long/short funds. CANSLIM is a William O'neil strategy, right? I have one of his books at home though I haven't really put it to good use. I think O'neil often ends up being a classic momentum investor, but if your timing is right, it can certainly work. My team and I are pretty much generalists so we will look for good ideas just about anywhere, though our style is about 95% equities and maybe 5% options. We do both a top-down and a bottom-up approach and often use technical analysis in concert with our fundamental research to try and more effectively manage risk and improve our timing. My favorite pick probably changes day-to-day, but we've made great money with Akamai, though the stock has had a huge multi-year run, is getting extremely expensive, and is routinely subject to rumors of new competition. Some of our favorite shorts are in the sub-prime mortgage origination space (which I actually mentinoned on this board about a year ago). However, I cannot recommend short selling to retail investors as the risk is theoretically unlimited. We've been starting to see cracks in the sub-prime foundation for several quarters now and we think things there could potentially get a lot uglier before they get better. Anyhoo...

Who has invested in your fund? Did you set it up? I'm looking to take this as my career path, but have no idea how to pursue it.

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Most stock markets look overvalued here in my opinion. The US is about to enter a recession, and usually when the US sneezes, the world catches a cold. If you insist on being in stocks, I recommend you stick with value...solid companies that pay dividends, as well as resource stocks with REAL assets backing the companies (oil, gas, gold, silver, etc).

Value stocks are companies trading below their actual value. Dow Dogs are the solid dividend paying companies. Very simple strategy, easy to follow (Dogs).

My strategy is value dividend equity positions.

I haven't gotten burned once with this strategy (although I owned Reliant Energy and SBC). The key is to know when to get out (usually when they slash dividends or eliminate them, as I did with SBC when it became AT&T).

I also tend to examine book value of companies which I am really unsure of. But dividend/value seems good. Right now I spotted some companies that do shipping that seem to have very good returns, but haven't invested in them yet.

This strategy requires a long time horizon however.

And its great, because a stock that pays 3% dividends when you buy it can potentially in 5 years or less pay 10% dividends (or more) on your initial investment...

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Any stock market investors?

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Originally posted by Krypton Who has invested in your fund? Did you set it up? I'm looking to take this as my career path, but have no idea how to pursue it.

Uh, lots of folks, though I am not allowed to disclose any of that information. Not that it's exciting or telling information. Here--I am an investor for one! I certainly didn't set the fund up--though somewhere down the road I'd love to be the lead portfolio manager. The fund has been in existence since about 1992, though I joined the firm in 2000. I really just fell into the job to be honest, though looking back it was definitely the right choice. Prior to my current job I was working in retail banking--which sucked. The hedge fund world makes me sweat every day, which is both a blessing and a curse!

Setting up a fund takes a lot of legwork--particularly in this day and age with Red FD, Reg SHO, Sarbanes-Oxley, etc. There are more hoops to jump through and more compliance issues, SEC filings and what not that it's really a pain in the ass. Then you have to have a prime brokerage relationship, several trading relationships with sell-side brokerage firms. It's not that it's difficult, it's just that there is a huge laundry list of things you need in place just to get things off the ground. Though, that could be a bit of an overstatement as that pertains more to our mutual fund than our hedge fund, which is much less loosely regulated. Then again, there are always tons of legal, audit and accounting fees that have to be paid, yada yada yada. Just a lot of busy work.

One thing I really like about our company is that we are a small team so we work very closely together and everyone is intimately involved in our strategy. We have a team of 3 of us that basically manage the portfolio, do the research, trade, etc. Then just a couple of others in the firm to handle things like compliance, PR, operations, etc. And then of course someone to answer the phone.

First thing you need to get started is money of course--not necessarily your own, but definitely some investors. I'd say it would be hard to run a fund for a job without $10M at the very least. And even then, that's really going to be a tight ship. At $25M, a fund will generate around $250K/year in advisory fees to pay overhead, salaries, rent, etc. The real money is made at the end of the year if you made good money for your clients.

How much time do you guys spent a day on this stuff? Or more clear, how much time did you guys spent in the beggining when you went with the idea of doing this? I'm busy with other business projects now, but i just wanted to get a general idea on this.

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Originally posted by Kapedan How much time do you guys spent a day on this stuff? Or more clear, how much time did you guys spent in the beggining when you went with the idea of doing this? I'm busy with other business projects now, but i just wanted to get a general idea on this.

It took me 3 months of reading, researching, sampling, developing a trading strategy, and learning how to implement it. That's if you are good at numbers crunching, charting, and business.

The easiest strategy I know of it the Dogs of the Dow, and charting.

Dogs of the Dow:
1. Screen for the top 10 highest dividend yielding stocks on the Dow Jones every January 1.
2. Buy equal amounts of each stock.
3. Every January 1, sell the losers, and replace them with the next dividend yielders for the next year.

Charting (Technical Analysis):
Start with a graph of the stocks movement over the past year (52wks).
1. Draw a line from a particular low, and connect the next low to form a support line.
2. Draw a line from a particular high, and connect the next high to for a resistance line.
3. Buy when the support line is touched.
4. Sell when the resistance line is touched.
*Support & resistance reliability is based on how many times each has been touched and not crossed. The more touches, the more reliable the trend is.

what about "channeling" an established stock for the long term? that doesn't really require too much effort or experience does it?

I like to play it safe. Sell high, buy low.

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Originally posted by stevieboy32808 I like to play it safe. Sell high, buy low.

Can you go beyond 1-2-3?

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Originally posted by Q5echo what about "channeling" an established stock for the long term? that doesn't really require too much effort or experience does it?

Yea, that's what charting and technical analysis entails. But, channels rarely last more than 6 months, so it's a short term strategy. I use to determine my entry points. Once I've evaluated a company's business and see that it is worth investing in, I chart the stock's price movements by drawing the channel lines, thereby, predicting the stock's future movements to a certain degree, and waiting to buy until the support (bottom) line is touched.

The bottom line is the support. The top line is the resistance. The basic strategy is to buy when the support line is tested, and sell when the resistance line is tested.

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I like to play it safe. Sell high, buy low.

When is the price high or low enough? It's not so simple.

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Originally posted by Krypton Yea, that's what charting and technical analysis entails. But, channels rarely last more than 6 months, so it's a short term strategy. I use to determine my entry points. Once I've evaluated a company's business and see that it is worth investing in, I chart the stock's price movements by drawing the channel lines, thereby, predicting the stock's future movements to a certain degree, and waiting to buy until the support (bottom) line is touched. The bottom line is the support. The top line is the resistance. The basic strategy is to buy when the support line is tested, and sell when the resistance line is tested.

my apologies i'm not hip to that chart, or many charts. am i reading that channel is 2.0 points wide?

Bit sick of shares, after 7-8 years of fiddling with them I've made a lot of gains 3 times during that period, but I sort of figure my luck will run out sooner than later and that could leave me in a real pickle so I'm punching out while my boring old mining shares are happy and the company wants to buy them back.
Pay off a some of my debts and concentrate on my realestate for awhile, realestate at the moment where I am is kind of 'crummy' and it's bottomed out to the point it's not going any lower. Good chance of being able to slash some nervous sellers to the bone...

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Originally posted by Q5echo my apologies i'm not hip to that chart, or many charts. am i reading that channel is 2.0 points wide?

Yep, about 2 dollar range. The channel indicates the price's probable movement, and the more touches the support and resistance line get, the more reliable the trend is.

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Bit sick of shares, after 7-8 years of fiddling with them I've made a lot of gains 3 times during that period, but I sort of figure my luck will run out sooner than later and that could leave me in a real pickle so I'm punching out while my boring old mining shares are happy and the company wants to buy them back. Pay off a some of my debts and concentrate on my realestate for awhile, realestate at the moment where I am is kind of 'crummy' and it's bottomed out to the point it's not going any lower. Good chance of being able to slash some nervous sellers to the bone...

I make big gains about once a month. Big gains, I mean at least 2% gain, or $1000 gain in a single day.

Yeah but at the moment I have a lot floating around and it makes me nervous to keep it there when I could be using it for more practical things. I did really well out of Cisco around early 2000 when it peaked and been living off dividends from energy companys for the 5 or so years, mostly Shell until they went nuts halfway through last year and it was too tempting not to sell.
Then going into resources, which are slightly sluggish for the most part but unless you buy into a real dog of a company, you're not likely to be burnt just playing it cool and biding your time. I went in with 'fair bit', coming out with 'lot' so it's not done me wrong, it's just a bit too much of temptation to throw money on wild and high maintenance company's. I can use a little less anxiety and a bit more money right about now so it's a good at time as any for a rank amatuer to call it quits.

Here is another example of trendlines holding/working I posted a few months back.. :

http://www.tranceaddict.com/forums/...=&pagenumber=10

Interesting times

Very tempting to take up the prowl on some lower priced shares right now.
(mind you, a lot of others are probably thinking the same thing so I wouldn't expect it to last)

Wow, I am thanking my laziness right now. I was planning on investing a month ago into emerging markets, but just never got around to it.

Anyways, I am looking for two avenues in which to invest right now. I am currently invested in a real estate company through a friend that returns on average close to 8% a year. I would like to invest in a somewhat risky security (ETF, Mutual Fund) and safer security (bond fund). It seems like a few of you are professionals, could you offer any advice? There was this one fund, Oppenheimer Intl Bond A (OIBAX) that I was recommended two months ago as a steady, high returning bond fund. Any thoughts on that too would be much appreciated.

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Originally posted by kush paintings Wow, I am thanking my laziness right now. I was planning on investing a month ago into emerging markets, but just never got around to it. Anyways, I am looking for two avenues in which to invest right now. I am currently invested in a real estate company through a friend that returns on average close to 8% a year. I would like to invest in a somewhat risky security (ETF, Mutual Fund) and safer security (bond fund). It seems like a few of you are professionals, could you offer any advice? There was this one fund, Oppenheimer Intl Bond A (OIBAX) that I was recommended two months ago as a steady, high returning bond fund. Any thoughts on that too would be much appreciated.

Right now...bury your head in the sand. Though in theory there should be some great buying opportunities coming very soon. This week has been a roller-coaster ride!

I lost 12k today.

Not joking.

Good thing I'm not a materialistic pos.

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