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-- Thoughts on the N. Korea deal ?

Thoughts on the N. Korea deal ?

Surprised nobody made a thread out of it. Apparently N. Korea has agreed to close its main reactor in exchange of a package of food, fuel and other aid from the United States, China, South Korea and Russia. At least one positive step albeit riddled with doubts about Kim Jong-il's will to wind up his country's nuclear program and North Korea's compliance with deadlines.

Source

what little was accomplished, couldn't have been done alone.

anyone who said otherwise in the recent past was either playing politics or just plain uninformed.

John Bolton was on CNN yesterday speaking out against this deal.

I dunno, I think that anything like this should be seen as a good sign. The great unknown (as always) is whether Lil Kim will actually honour the deal over the long term.

I'm wondering if he's finally realizing what a shit state his country is in and is actually doing something for the people for a change...?

quote:

Originally posted by pmoisse I'm wondering if he's finally realizing what a shit state his country is in and is actually doing something for the people for a change...?

i hear what your saying, but i'm afraid what he ended up bargaining for (500,000 tonnes fuel oil essentially) would be just enough to keep his country afloat.

that, in exchange for shutting down his prized possesion will do little, unfortunately, for the people under his pudgy lil thumb.

It's a step in the right direction. How long it will last, and if it will get implemented or even work..is another story.

Re: Thoughts on the N. Korea deal ?

quote:

Originally posted by Omega_M Surprised nobody made a thread out of it.

Psst....

http://www.tranceaddict.com/forums/...9&forumid=66&s=

no worries, it's still an important topic

I really hope this deal works. The people of NK really need help and thier gov needs to realize that. Lets hope that this helps those poor souls that need it.

What are they going to do when he reopens the reactor a year later? Offer him another package?

after reading a couple articles it seems this was just a "first step" in a series of multi-lateral moves over a longer term. which is great, by any recent measure, really, compared to months and years of non-talking.

the recent sanctions apparently worked. worked well enough for the NORKS to come to us bi-laterally in Berlin a few weeks ago.

Japan is earnestly seeking normalization with the NORKS as opposed to the alternative for Japan which would be ramped up militarization.

once we recieve for ourselves compliance with shutting down his baby, it's said we will negotiate further options regarding his enrichment, research and weaponization programs and normalizing trade relations to, ultimately, his current stock of completed devices.

i can't find anything associated with China's part of the deal (typical) but i think it's safe to say their end of the sactions and enforcement was very compelling for the lil guy.

it doesn't do logical diplomacy justice to look at this one agreement in a vacuum.

If I read the article about it when it came out (it was a couple of days ago and I have just gotten home for the first time since sunday evening, gotta love being stuck in a motel room 20 miles from home) the 500,000 tonnes was just an initial amount to hold them over until the larger aid shows up after the reactor/weapons equipment are dismantled under IAEA supervision.

I did not, strangely, see anything about the light-water reactor building started under the 1994 deal re-commencing. But maybe that was just overlooked.


I am encouraged that negotiations worked, though the Bush administration can really take little credit for this as they have been as much of a hindrance as a help on any diplomatic solution to problems. Japan and the South were most likely the biggest players as they have the most to lose/gain outside of the North Koreans.

MrS

quote:

Originally posted by MrSquirrel though the Bush administration can really take little credit for this as they have been as much of a hindrance as a help on any diplomatic solution to problems.

right, of course. anyway

>Seed of North Korean nuclear deal was planted in Berlin<

quote:

BEIJING: On a Friday night in late December, the tortuous three-year diplomatic effort to end North Korea's nuclear weapons program finally seemed dead. Two months earlier, North Korea had conducted its first nuclear weapons test, and five days of talks in Beijing had just ended in failure and acrimony. But that evening, the American team sent a messenger to the gated North Korean Embassy. Would the North be interested in a private, bilateral meeting outside Beijing? A few days later, the North agreed and chose a location � Berlin.

quote:

Originally posted by Aquadyne What are they going to do when he reopens the reactor a year later? Offer him another package?

Agreed. A better deal would be a to sign an agreement to provide a certain amount of food/money annually in return for complete abandonment of nuclear program by NK. Otherwise the plant can be easily reopened. NK won this argument, the West/Russia/China has conceeded, yet again. There was no plans to invade NK before, but now that Kim has developed the nuclear program, he put his country in greater danger and all for what - prestige, trying to show off, starve his people even more? Pffft ... dumb moves, this will only give excuses for aggression from the West and arms buildup in the region which will not benefit anyone.

But, NK does not possess any strategic important, no oil/gas deposits of significance, so I expect no progress in the matter at least until Kim's death ;-)

The "agreement" won't get past the first stage.

quote:

Originally posted by Aquadyne What are they going to do when he reopens the reactor a year later? Offer him another package?

Thats exactly the plan.

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