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Red states, blue states, and divorce rates

I put together a map and a graph earlier, plotting voting patterns of the 2004 U.S. presidential election vs. divorce rates for that same year. I got the divorce rates here.





The blue states have an average divorce rate roughly three-fourths of the rate in the red states. If we're more generous to the red states and take Nevada (realm of ill-conceived impromptu weddings) and Arkansas out of the average, we end up with an average rate of 4.124. Still significantly higher than the rate in the blue states.

"Not so fast," you say. "There isn't any data for California, and that would surely throw off the blue states!" Well, the divorce rate for California in 1994 was 4.3 and since then divorce rates have been going down nationwide. The inclusion of California might give the blue states a bit of a jolt, but not enough to throw off the trend completely.

So...why are divorce rates higher in red states, supposedly the home of "family values" and respect for the institution of marriage?

Re: Red states, blue states, and divorce rates

quote:

Originally posted by MrJiveBoJingles So...why are divorce rates higher in red states, supposedly the home of "family values" and respect for the institution of marriage?

One factor may be that those "family values" types are more prone to getting married faster. After all, if they genuinely believe in not getting down and dirty until you tied the knot, then I can understand why they might get married faster, whereas a more "liberal" couple might be willing to stay unmarried for a long time and, in some cases, indefinitely. It may even be the case that a significantly higher portion of the population is married - so a more enlightening statistic might be divorce rate per 1000 marriages rather than per 1000 people.

Even so, I suspect that the red states would come out in the lead there as well. A considerable portion of that may be the pressure that such people feel to marry, from their family/friends or even from their gonads if they're a true believer. After all, it does seem intuitive that a marriage more hastily entered into would be more prone to ending in divorce.

Re: Red states, blue states, and divorce rates

quote:

Originally posted by MrJiveBoJingles So...why are divorce rates higher in red states, supposedly the home of "family values" and respect for the institution of marriage?

Because "family values" are in fact utter bullshit - it's just that those certains states are too backwards to come to terms with it.

A possible influence could be...

There are far more red states than blue, thus, the red states have more chances to have higher than average divorce rates than blue states would..

I suggest a change to your study...

Match each blue state with a red state based on the points each state is given by the electoral college. Then once, you have you matches, average the divorce rates again, and see what you get..

who f**kin gives?

quote:

Originally posted by Q5echo who f**kin gives?

Smart people who watch societal trends.

It's interesting to me that the major issue in 2004 was "preserving the sanctity of marriage" - yet the red states where that was a rallying cry have failed to preserve it even relative to the blue states they so detest on that account. What is the most interesting thing of all in those statistics though, may be that the divorce rate in Massachusetts was the lowest measured. After all, isn't Massachusetts supposed to be public enemy number one in the war on marriage?

nice charts

quote:

Originally posted by Krypton A possible influence could be... There are far more red states than blue, thus, the red states have more chances to have higher than average divorce rates than blue states would.. I suggest a change to your study... Match each blue state with a red state based on the points each state is given by the electoral college. Then once, you have you matches, average the divorce rates again, and see what you get..

actually, im pretty sure the federal reserve have something to do with it

quote:

Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN actually, im pretty sure the federal reserve have something to do with it

haha I lol'ed

quote:

Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN actually, im pretty sure the federal reserve have something to do with it

Do a study on divorce rates when the Fed rate is high, and when the Fed rate is low. You might find something interesting; the Fed might be influencing social trends!!

quote:

Originally posted by Lesbianosaur Smart people who watch societal trends.

right.

lets be frank here, as far as i can see you've taken these stats at face value and nothing more. which leads me to believe you care enough only to mock those trends. am i right?

anyway who cares what i think. sorry i bummed this thread.

EDIT> what kind of a difference in rates are we talking about here? after taking Nevada and Arkansas out the difference half a percent?

i don't know, taking the stats at face value IMO leaves very little in the way of any real scientific analysis but just enough mock i guess. flame on.

what are the marriage rates of the States? anybody know? anybody care?

>LINK to marriage rates<

is the difference between the two kinds of states in divorce rate that signifigant?

if those same blue states were behind those same red states in marriage rates would it matter?

if those same red states were signifigantly ahead of those same blue states in marriage rates would it affect the divorce rate? would it affect the total analysis?

Re: Re: Red states, blue states, and divorce rates

quote:

Originally posted by Arbiter One factor may be that those "family values" types are more prone to getting married faster. After all, if they genuinely believe in not getting down and dirty until you tied the knot, then I can understand why they might get married faster, whereas a more "liberal" couple might be willing to stay unmarried for a long time and, in some cases, indefinitely. It may even be the case that a significantly higher portion of the population is married - so a more enlightening statistic might be divorce rate per 1000 marriages rather than per 1000 people. Even so, I suspect that the red states would come out in the lead there as well. A considerable portion of that may be the pressure that such people feel to marry, from their family/friends or even from their gonads if they're a true believer. After all, it does seem intuitive that a marriage more hastily entered into would be more prone to ending in divorce.

ironic considering the red states pride themselves in keeping a high standard for moral values.

quote:

Originally posted by Q5echo lets be frank here, as far as i can see you've taken these stats at face value and nothing more. which leads me to believe you care enough only to mock those trends. am i right?

face value? this thread was started to discuss possible reasons for the discrepancy.

quote:

Originally posted by Lesbianosaur this thread was started to discuss possible reasons for the discrepancy.

really, was it? does it matter?

what do you have to say further? or have you already said it?

The study is biased towards blue states.

To fix it, match pairs of states that have the same electoral college points, and then average the divorce rates again on them. Then it'll be fair.

quote:

Originally posted by Krypton There are far more red states than blue, thus, the red states have more chances to have higher than average divorce rates than blue states would..

This makes no sense. Basically you're saying that larger samples have more of a chance of including outliers, which is perfectly true, but you neglect to mention that, ceteris paribus, a larger sample will also have more of a chance of including outliers on the low end as well, not just outliers on the high end.

quote:

Originally posted by MrJiveBoJingles This makes no sense. Basically you're saying that larger samples have more of a chance of including outliers, which is perfectly true, but you neglect to mention that, ceteris paribus, a larger sample will also have more of a chance of including outliers on the low end as well, not just outliers on the high end.

What are the populations of the blue states compared to the red states?

quote:

Originally posted by Q5echo EDIT> what kind of a difference in rates are we talking about here? after taking Nevada and Arkansas out the difference half a percent?

If you would read the first post, you would see that I already addressed that point. Taking out Nevada and Arkansas only lowers the rate for red states by about .15. Still much higher than the blue states.

The point about marriage rates is a valid one. Red states have more marriages, so if an equal percentage of marriages break up in both blue states and red states, the red states would still show a higher divorce rate as a percentage of the general population.

Another thing to consider is that fundamentalist Christians divorce more frequently. Since fundamentalist Christians are far more common in the red states, that would go some way toward explaining the trend.

quote:

Originally posted by Krypton What are the populations of the blue states compared to the red states?

Of the ones included in the study? The total for each group is probably about equal, since California was not included in the blue states.

quote:

Originally posted by MrJiveBoJingles The point about marriage rates is a valid one. Red states have more marriages, so if an equal percentage of marriages break up in both blue states and red states, the red states would still show a higher divorce rate as a percentage of the general population.

While true, a higher marriage rate can be a symptom of a high divorce rate. After all, those who divorce often remarry, resulting in more marriages and, thus, a higher marriage rate.

It would be difficult to seperate the effect of having more marriages generally (due to more people choosing to marry) versus the effect of having more marriages as a product of marriages tending to be shorter-lasting.

Knowing the percentage of the adult population that is married might help resolve this -- if a state has a higher marriage rate, but no higher proportion of its population is married, then most of the additional marriages are presumably due to people re-marrying. It might be helpful to exclude nonresident marriages re: Nevada in particular when examining marriage rates.

quote:

Originally posted by MrJiveBoJingles Of the ones included in the study? The total for each group is probably about equal, since California was not included in the blue states.

Of all the states that have reported divorce rates, what are their respective blue and red populations? You're doing a study right? Make it better by examining all aspects of the results, just to make sure the notion that "family values proponent's own social policy doesn't work in their respective districts".

quote:

Originally posted by Krypton Of all the states that have reported divorce rates, what are their respective blue and red populations? You're doing a study right? Make it better by examining all aspects of the results, just to make sure the notion that "family values proponent's own social policy doesn't work in their respective districts".

Heh, I shouldn't have said "study," this is just my speculation on social trends with the limited data available to me. I am interested in doing demography / social trends statistics professionally, though. It's fascinating to me.

quote:

Originally posted by Arbiter

I wonder if there are statistics available for number of first marriages and first divorces in a state. Those might be interesting to examine...

quote:

Originally posted by Krypton Of all the states that have reported divorce rates, what are their respective blue and red populations? You're doing a study right? Make it better by examining all aspects of the results, just to make sure the notion that "family values proponent's own social policy doesn't work in their respective districts".

I fail to see how the size of the samples really matters - when you're talking about 100+ million people in each sample, whether they are precisely equal or off by 10 million on one side or the other doesn't bear any statistical significance.

Something that would be more interesting than a red state v. blue state comparison, glancing at the map, is a regional comparison. It seems to me that divorce rates in Southern states are much higher than those in New England or the upper Midwest where you get both blue and red states. The causation is likely more closely related to regional culture rather than any sort of politics - I imagine that political leaning is simply another effect rather than a causation.

As always, lets take a graph with a grain of salt.
We're pretty much of the opinion (because we've argued this before) that correlation ≠ causation.

ie. Just because Red States have a high divorce rate doesn't point to crumbling family values.

A wise man once said, "Just because you have a cat in the over, doesn't make it a biscuit"...

You'd have to do this for more that just one year to make a better assertation than that IMHO...

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