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-- Obama, Huckabee win big
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Posted by HardTranceProd on Jan-04-2008 03:46:

Obama, Huckabee win big

The results are in!


Posted by Kapedano on Jan-04-2008 03:53:

Yeah, no surprise there. I do not think Huckabee will go far though.


Posted by Capitalizt on Jan-04-2008 04:01:

A bible-thumpin state full of conservative farmers...supporting a black man named Obama. I was surprised.

The fact that he won in a state that is 95% white means Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton are soon to be out of a job.

Racism = dead


Posted by Lira on Jan-04-2008 04:06:

quote:
Originally posted by Capitalizt
Racism = dead

God bless America

Talking about God, actually, I read something interesting in a Brazilian magazine last week. Most Brazilians would vote for an African-Brazilian president - yet, less than 20% would vote for an atheist


Posted by HardTranceProd on Jan-04-2008 04:07:

Some thoughtful commentary from our British cousins.

http://timesonline.typepad.com/usel...abama.html#more

quote:

Final thoughts as we sift through the confetti and the wreckage of the first contest of the 2008 election.

For the Democrats, Obama's victory (by about 38 per cent to Edwards' 30 and Hillary's 29) is well enough outside the three-way tie scenario to be truly significant. Change was the message, according to the entrance poll, from an astounding turnout of Democratic voters and they think - quite reasonably - that Obama, fresh and new, and not Hillary or Edwards, is the one to deliver it.

This was a body blow for Hillary. The spin was that she was always going to have a tough time here and that was true. For a while back in the spring her campaign even pondered pulling out of Iowa. Her husband, remember, didn't really run here in 1992 and there was no Democratic contest in 1996.

But she did run and she ran on a fairly simple premise that she was inevitable. If you run as inevitable and lose you really lose.

And yet. It's only one contest. It's only Iowa. She will now unleash some furies in the next four days in New Hampshire, where voters do not necessarily follow the Iowa line. If she wins there she evens the contest and it's all to play for in Nevada (where she should win) and South Carolina and beyond.

But she is in the fight of her life now.

A brief word on Edwards. He needed to win here and he was a distant second. He won't quit immediately but he faces almost impossible odds. The next big question for him is when to pull out and to whom he should throw his valuable support.

On the Republican side Huckabee was a big winner but Romney was a bigger loser. Like Hillary, Romney was a frontrunner with all the advantages and resources that entails. But he got soldily beaten by an upstart. His nightmare scenario was a poor second here and to have McCain - his main rival in New Hampshire - run a strong third. In the event McCain seems to have tied for third, but the result is still very ominous for Romney.

Huckabee now has to prove that he is not just a likeable guy with a floating subliminal cross over his shoulder. Evangelicals pulled him to victory here but they won't do it in New Hampshire. Still, he only needs a respectable showing there now and have McCain beat Romney, which would probably finish Romney - and turn it into a two man fight through the primaries with McCain.

Which leaves McCain. The man written off for dead two months ago is on the march.


Posted by Krypton on Jan-04-2008 04:11:

I like them both...


Posted by Capitalizt on Jan-04-2008 04:16:

quote:
Originally posted by Krypton
I like them both...


I'm rootin for Obama

He just gave an awesome speech in New Hampshire. His economic policies suck, but he would be an infinite improvement over the republicans on foreign policy and diplomacy.

I'll gladly pay more taxes in exchange for bringing our troops home and making friends around the world rather than enemies..


Posted by HardTranceProd on Jan-04-2008 04:19:

Biden and Dodd dropping out!!!


Posted by Krypton on Jan-04-2008 04:21:

quote:
Originally posted by Capitalizt
A bible-thumpin state full of conservative farmers...supporting a black man named Obama. I was surprised.

The fact that he won in a state that is 95% white means Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton are soon to be out of a job.

Racism = dead


Well, Jesse YACKson n da rev himself, Al Sharpton, representin the mostly the black inter-city, as if race was still just a thang of the 1960's...

That's why they'de never win anything


Posted by Krypton on Jan-04-2008 04:21:

quote:
Originally posted by HardTranceProd
Biden and Dodd dropping out!!!


WHaaaa??! Biden's the shit!!


Posted by Lebezniatnikov on Jan-04-2008 04:23:

quote:
Originally posted by Krypton
WHaaaa??! Biden's the shit!!



Biden was running to be Obama's VP.

Anyway, I called these results two months ago. Old news.


Posted by Lebezniatnikov on Jan-04-2008 04:30:

From Kos: "57 percent of Obama's support is 17-29. It's awesome to see younger voters turning out. That's got to be the GOP's worst nightmare."

Over 220,000 Democrats turned out, and they usually only see 160,000. About 120,000 Republicans. The Democrats are in good shape no matter who wins the nomination.


Posted by DJ Shibby on Jan-04-2008 04:42:

quote:
Originally posted by Lesbianosaur
From Kos: "57 percent of Obama's support is 17-29. It's awesome to see younger voters turning out. That's got to be the GOP's worst nightmare."

Over 220,000 Democrats turned out, and they usually only see 160,000. About 120,000 Republicans. The Democrats are in good shape no matter who wins the nomination.


And so it shall be writ that after they had taken a mile

we were so battered and broken

that we were appeased by an inch.


Posted by MisterOpus1 on Jan-04-2008 05:26:

quote:
Originally posted by Capitalizt
I'm rootin for Obama

He just gave an awesome speech in New Hampshire. His economic policies suck, but he would be an infinite improvement over the republicans on foreign policy and diplomacy.

I'll gladly pay more taxes in exchange for bringing our troops home and making friends around the world rather than enemies..


Unless you are in the top 1% of income earners, I don't think you'll see much of a dent in your taxes if Obama wins it overall.

And how 'bout that Paul fella?

Woo.

And Huckabee winning as predicted. And the Republicans are beginning to eat their own with a religious Right monster as their current frontrunner, as predicted.

And thank God Hillary got third. Hopefully her momentum tanks (pretty please?!?!?!)


Posted by Renegade on Jan-04-2008 06:09:

quote:
Originally posted by MisterOpus1
And how 'bout that Paul fella?

Woo.


Haha have the Ronbots started blaming the mainstream media for the result yet? Or are they starting to realise that maybe people, you know, just don't really want to vote for him?

quote:
And Huckabee winning as predicted. And the Republicans are beginning to eat their own with a religious Right monster as their current frontrunner, as predicted.


I can't see any way the party isn't going to split over this. The northern / coastal caucuses probably aren't going to go for Romney or Huckabee and the rural / southern caucuses probably aren't going to go for Giuliani or McCain. The relationship between the religious conservatives and the small-government conservatives in the party has always been tenuous, but none of the current candidates look capable of bridging the divide. Even if none of the losers for the GOP candidacy decide to run as third party, I can't see any way they can win this year.

quote:
And thank God Hillary got third. Hopefully her momentum tanks (pretty please?!?!?!)


She was comfortably in front in NH last I heard, but this result won't help her chances there.


Posted by eROs.au on Jan-04-2008 06:14:

Link to the results?


Posted by Capitalizt on Jan-04-2008 06:15:

I don't think anybody expected Ron Paul to win tonight. Iowa is a Christian Coalition stronghold that loves farm subsidies and fears 'terrarists'. I was watching c-span before the vote, and the republican rooms were filled with elderly voters...religious conservatives who are set in their ways. They aren't ready for the revolution.

New Hampshire is going to be the real test. It's a modern state with a diverse population. If Paul doesn't get 2nd or 3rd there, it's over. I think he has a very good chance of beating at least two of the "major" candidates though.


Posted by Q5echo on Jan-04-2008 07:01:



the witch is dead.


Posted by Renegade on Jan-04-2008 07:10:

quote:
Originally posted by Capitalizt
New Hampshire is going to be the real test. It's a modern state with a diverse population. If Paul doesn't get 2nd or 3rd there, it's over. I think he has a very good chance of beating at least two of the "major" candidates though.


Not according to the most recent poll:

quote:
A CNN/WMUR New Hampshire poll shows Clinton with a 34%-30% lead over Obama. Edwards has 17%. On the GOP side, the poll has Romney and McCain tied in New Hampshire at 29%. Giuliani is third with 12%; Huckabee has 10%; Paul comes in fifth at 7%.


http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/arch.../03/545301.aspx

He's polling less there than he got in IA. I mean realistically, which state is he likely to win? Are there any identifiable "liberatarian" states in the US?

quote:
Originally posted by eROs.au
Link to the results?


Democrats: Barack Obama (38%), John Edwards (30%), Hillary Clinton (29%), Bill Richardson (2%) and Joe Biden (1%).

Republicans: Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%), Ron Paul (10%), Rudy Giuliani (4%) and Duncan Hunter (1%).


Posted by jonSun on Jan-04-2008 07:55:

Hillary third & Ron Paul in front of Giuliani.


Posted by Capitalizt on Jan-04-2008 08:00:

quote:
Originally posted by Renegade

He's polling less there than he got in IA. I mean realistically, which state is he likely to win? Are there any identifiable "liberatarian" states in the US?


New Hampshire, the "Live Free or Die" state is as close as we've got
They have no state income tax, no state sales tax, low property taxes, very few regulations on business, legalized gay marriage, etc etc.

It is home to the Free State Project which is a group of a few thousand people dedicated to making the state a bastion for libertarian ideals. So this is obviously RP's best hope.


Posted by Q5echo on Jan-04-2008 09:20:

quote:
Originally posted by Capitalizt
So this is obviously RP's best hope.


then there is no hope, is there?

i'm sorry, i can sound really mean towards your guy. i can truly go along with a handful of some of his policies, but lets face it, there's no chance.

once he goes Independent it becomes even more of a circus side show than it already is.


Posted by Ian on Jan-04-2008 09:42:

i wanted fred thompson to get nominated. Anyone who can grace my screen for years as a guy paid so much to say so little is true president material. Plus i then expected a government with lennie briscoe in it (bless his soul)


Posted by Zild on Jan-04-2008 10:50:

Racism is definitely not dead. You must not live in the south. Racism is just like the civil war 'supposed to be dead' but not buried and still hanging around stinking up the place.


Posted by Lebezniatnikov on Jan-04-2008 12:59:

quote:
Originally posted by Capitalizt
I don't think anybody expected Ron Paul to win tonight. Iowa is a Christian Coalition stronghold that loves farm subsidies and fears 'terrarists'. I was watching c-span before the vote, and the republican rooms were filled with elderly voters...religious conservatives who are set in their ways. They aren't ready for the revolution.

New Hampshire is going to be the real test. It's a modern state with a diverse population. If Paul doesn't get 2nd or 3rd there, it's over. I think he has a very good chance of beating at least two of the "major" candidates though.



New Hampshire is 96% white, Iowa is 94% white. Each state is composed roughly 24% by college grads... basically, the populations are both pretty compatible.


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