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Taking bets on NH primary
The poll is asking who you think will win, not who you support.
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| Campaigns Work to Turn Out N.H. Voters By William Branigin Washington Post Staff Writer Tuesday, January 8, 2008; 2:13 PM New Hampshire voters streamed into polling places in large numbers today to select candidates in the state's first-in-the-nation presidential primary, as the contenders vied for support from the undecided and worked to turn out their backers. Seeking to continue the momentum he gained from his victory last week in the Iowa Democratic caucuses, Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) appeared to be in a strong position today to deal another major setback to his chief rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), who trails him by double digits in the latest New Hampshire polls. The Republican front-runner in the state, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), looked for a decisive win over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney in an effort to cement his comeback status in a wide-open GOP race. Polls opened statewide at 6 a.m. Eastern time and turnout was reported to be brisk, with voters lining up at polling stations in unseasonably balmy weather. The polls were scheduled to close at 8 p.m., with results expected to start rolling in soon after that. Temperatures today were forecast to reach the low 60s, bolstering state election officials' predictions of a record primary turnout. At one polling place, Brookside Congregational Church in Manchester, N.H., dozens of voters lined up before dawn and found three Republican contenders stumping for their votes. On hand at the church were former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and Romney. Huckabee, who won the Iowa GOP caucuses, was running third in New Hampshire, according to pre-primary polls, followed closely by Giuliani and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. Attempting to stave off a second defeat following her third-place finish in Iowa, Clinton began campaigning before dawn at a Manchester elementary school. Joined by her daughter, Chelsea, she poured coffee for voters at the school and pledged, "We're going to work all day to get the vote out." Like other candidates, she sought support from New Hampshire's large bloc of independent voters, estimated at 45 percent of the nearly 830,000 people registered to vote. Independents can vote in either party's primary, giving them added importance and prompting candidates to reach out beyond their bases to broaden their appeal. But Clinton faced a tough road ahead in her bid to become the nation's first woman president, with polls showing Obama widening his lead over her in New Hampshire and drawing even with her nationally. According to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, Obama, the freshman senator seeking to become the country's first African American president, is now tied with Clinton nationally at 33 percent support, having closed a gap of 18 percentage points in less than a month. Former senator John Edwards of North Carolina is running third in the national poll with 20 percent. Nationwide, the USA Today/Gallup poll now has Huckabee leading the Republican field, having vaulted ahead of Giuliani since his victory in Iowa. Following Huckabee (25 percent) and Giuliani (20 percent) were McCain (19 percent), former Tennessee senator Fred D. Thompson (12 percent), Romney (9 percent) and Paul (4 percent). Polls of likely New Hampshire voters in recent days have shown Obama opening a substantial lead over Clinton, with Edwards in third place among Democrats. Polls on the Republican side show McCain leading Romney by several percentage points, followed by Huckabee, Giuliani and Paul. In the first votes of the primary -- by tradition in the northern New Hampshire hamlets of Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, where the polls opened at midnight -- Obama and McCain finished ahead of their respective fields. The combined 46 votes were split evenly between Democrats and Republicans. Combined results from both places showed Obama with 16 votes, Clinton and Edwards with three each, and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson with one, the Associated Press reported. Among Republicans, McCain received 10 votes, Huckabee five, Paul four, Romney three and Giuliani one, AP said. In a brief break from his hectic campaign schedule, Obama spent a few minutes yesterday talking by phone with Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga, to whom he is related, CNN reported today. Obama's late father was from Kenya. The East African nation has been in turmoil since a disputed presidential election last month. The incumbent, Mwai Kibaki, was declared the winner by a narrow margin over Odinga, who attributed the result to election fraud. Making the rounds of the morning television news shows as they campaigned in New Hampshire, top-tier candidates voiced the usual optimism and began looking ahead to other primaries. Huckabee complained on MSNBC that "people have been trying to write us off as sort of a one-state wonder" following his Iowa victory. He pointed to the latest national Gallup poll and other surveys in states with upcoming primaries as hopeful signs for his candidacy. "We're first in South Carolina, Florida, Texas, all over the Southern states; second in California; first in Delaware," the former Southern Baptist minister said. "So we're really not a one-state wonder. This is a national campaign, and we expect it to go all the way to the White House." Giuliani expressed similar confidence, telling CNN this morning that regardless of what happens in New Hampshire, "We're moving on to Florida" tomorrow. "We think we're in very, very good shape in a lot of the states that are coming up," the former New York mayor said. "I think we're heading like 16 or 18 of the states. And we've always seen this as a 29-state primary [or] caucus in the first month, and whoever wins 16 or 18 of them is going to be the person in the best position." In the November election to choose a successor to President Bush, Giuliani said, "I believe that I'm the candidate who has the best chance of putting 50 of the states in play." Florida holds its Democratic and Republican primaries on Jan. 29. Preceding them are primaries in Michigan Jan. 15 and caucuses in Nevada Jan. 19. South Carolina holds its Republican primary Jan 19 and its Democratic primary Jan. 29. In a separate interview on CNN, Romney renewed his sniping at McCain over immigration policy and touted his economic plans. He said an immigration bill sponsored by McCain and Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) "was rejected by the American people." First introduced in 2005 and backed by Bush, the bill would have provided a path to legalization and eventual U.S. citizenship for many of the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in the United States. "My view is that you allow those that have come here illegally to gradually and humanely return home, get in line, and make their application to come to this country just like everybody else," Romney said this morning. "But they should not be given a special pathway, a special privilege to all stay here for the rest of their life unless they've committed a crime and become automatic, permanent residents of the United States." Asked about his economic plan in view of growing fears of a recession this year, Romney said, "Well, the first thing to do in a tough economy, as George Bush did when he was in a recession, is to lower the tax rate on middle-income Americans." He said he would tax all interest, dividend and capital gains income "at a zero rate for all middle-income Americans," defined as people earning less than $200,000 a year. He said he would also begin "a very aggressive investment program in new technologies related to energy . . . so we can become free of our dependence on foreign oil." Interviewed on CBS, Edwards described himself as "very much the underdog candidate" compared to Obama and Clinton. "I mean, we've got two candidates who have just spent over $100 million," he said. "And I finished between them in Iowa, which I think is a great success." Clinton, who became emotional during a question-and-answer session with supporters yesterday, rejected the idea that her campaign was slipping away. In an interview last night with NBC's "Today" show that was broadcast this morning, Clinton said, "We're going to be fine no matter what happens. I'm not as concerned as maybe I should be about the horse race and the game of politics, because politics to me is not an end in itself. It is a process by which we all reach decisions." Asked if the New Hampshire primary were a "defining moment" in her political life, Clinton said, "I view the defining moment in this process as midnight on the West Coast, February 5th, because I think it's going to take until then to really sort this out." She referred to the "Super Tuesday" primaries and caucuses that day, when voters make their choices in 22 states, including New York, Illinois and California. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...0802159_pf.html |
Re: Taking bets on NH primary
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| Originally posted by josh4 The poll is asking who you think will win, not who you support. Finally we can start getting some real results. Personally I'm just waiting for a huge Ron Paul loss so I can rub it in the face of those naive idiots and we can finally be rid of that ridiculous "revolution." On the other hand, he beat Giuliani in Iowa so it'd be pretty interesting if he actually does well. |
I voted by who I thought would win.
Obama & McCain.
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| Originally posted by Krypton I voted by who I thought would win. Obama & McCain. |
You mean they're not all exactly the same?
NH is McCain country..
Kudlow & Company guys on CNBC are saying the markets are reacting to Obama winning the Iowa causus and his lead in the polls in New Hampshire. They're saying he'd be like a Jimmy Carter president. I'm hearing the 1970's stagflation is coming or will come in the future, especially if Obama is elected. Those are some strong words...
Polls are closed and results are trickling in:
Democrats
29 of 301 precincts -- 9%
Clinton 38
Obama 36
Edwards 17
Richardson 4
Republicans
29 of 301 precincts -- 8%
McCain 37
Romney 28
Huckabee 12
Giuliani 9
Paul 8
Thompson 1
fyi - live updates at http://www.concordmonitor.com/
and WOW at the turnout of Dems compared to GOPers
Looks like things are looking up for Hillary! finally
40 to 34 so far.
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| Originally posted by HardTranceProd Looks like things are looking up for Hillary! |
Yeah, I lol'ed when I saw the picture they used too.
And the gap is down to 39-37 with 50% of precincts in. The urban centers seemed to have gone to HRC in a big way, but there are a lot of small rural counties unreported. Still a tossup.
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| Originally posted by Lesbianosaur Yeah, I lol'ed when I saw the picture they used too. And the gap is down to 39-37 with 50% of precincts in. The urban centers seemed to have gone to HRC in a big way, but there are a lot of small rural counties unreported. Still a tossup. |
Hillary wins! A remarkable resurrection.
What happened in the last 24 hours?
Wesley Clark said he could feel "something in the air" change a little bit specifically yesterday afternoon
crap...I was really really really hoping Hillary would lose.
Looks like her "crying" act paid off with female voters.
She did the same thing in her senate run against Rick Lazio. The race was neck and neck until a debate when Lazio pushed her hard on a few questions. The the next day she played the "boohoo he's picking on me" card, and reversed her fortunes overnight.
Amazing how voters react to a little "emotion".
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| Originally posted by Groundhog Boy None of the college towns have reported yet. Go Dartmouth and UNH, hopefully they can pull Obama through. |
I just threw up in my mouth a little.
And I stand corrected, BTW. Then again, Rasmussen, CNN, Gallup, and a handful of other polls stand corrected for showing a double digit lead for Obama in NH as well.
As for you fucking New Hampshire "independents", what in God's name are you smoking? What a bunch of twits.
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| Originally posted by Groundhog Boy Awfully big change in the results from the weekend poll numbers. Obama, Edwards, and Richardson all fell from the CNN/Rasmussen final poll results gathered over the weekend, yet Hillary jumps 10%. Hmmmm....... |
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| Originally posted by MisterOpus1 I just threw up in my mouth a little. |
Completely unsubstantiated of course, but I wouldn't be surprised if Edwards jumping down Hillary's throat yesterday for the crying thing got her more sympathy than the actual tears. I like Edwards, but he is a little over-zealous.
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| Originally posted by Lesbianosaur Completely unsubstantiated of course, but I wouldn't be surprised if Edwards jumping down Hillary's throat yesterday for the crying thing got her more sympathy than the actual tears. I like Edwards, but he is a little over-zealous. |
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| Originally posted by HardTranceProd Edwards was very stupid to go so negative on Clinton in that debate. Ungraceful but also in terms of political calculations, stupid. |
Talk about an unflattering photo, this is as bad as Howard Deans Scream heard around the world.
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| Originally posted by Chryz707 Talk about an unflattering photo, this is as bad as Howard Deans Scream heard around the world. |
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