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Arrived: Recession

previous thread i posted 9 months ago was 'next stop: recession' -- well we have arrived, enjoy your stay!






http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...ec40&refer=home

Fed Cuts Rate 0.75 Percentage Point in Emergency Move (Update8)

By Scott Lanman
Enlarge Image/Details

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by three quarters of a percentage point, its first emergency reduction since 2001, after stock markets tumbled from Hong Kong to London amid increasing signs of a U.S. recession.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...k7cQ&refer=home

U.S. Stocks Pare Declines; Exxon Retreats, Financials Gain

By Elizabeth Stanton
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Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for a fifth day, the longest streak of declines in 11 months, as growing concern about the slowing economy prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by the most in two decades.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/22785666

Will Fed's Rate Cut Prevent Recession? Probably Not

By Reuters with CNBC.com | 22 Jan 2008 | 01:32 PM ET

There is no quick cure for what ails the U.S. and global economies, but if the Federal
Reserve's emergency interest rate cut Tuesday can instill some confidence among consumers, companies and investors, it may speed a recovery.

Interest rate reductions take time to work, and they cannot undo the damage inflicted by the tumbling U.S. housing market and subsequent credit contraction that has curbed the flow of
cash to households and businesses, pushing the economy to the brink of a recession.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...TVtU&refer=home

Bush Open to Larger Economic Stimulus Package (Update4)

By Roger Runningen
Enlarge Image/Details

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The Bush administration today left the door open for a stimulus package larger than the $150 billion plan the president already has outlined to avert a recession.




lol @ curious george and his futile stimulus package and him trying to 'avert a recession.' and i love how 3 weeks ago he said the economy was on a 'strong foundation.'

you guys def. called it, its HERE!!!!

any advice to help us out during this time...

i always heard that people tend to try and sell stock/options during these times in fear of losing... but i've always heard to just continue to stay where your are at and wait for everything to pass by.

also how do you think job security will be??

Re: Arrived: Recession

quote:

Originally posted by ninetyninej lol @ curious george and his futile stimulus package and him trying to 'avert a recession.' and i love how 3 weeks ago he said the economy was on a 'strong foundation.'

quote:

Originally posted by 72hrpartyanimal any advice to help us out during this time... i always heard that people tend to try and sell stock/options during these times in fear of losing... but i've always heard to just continue to stay where your are at and wait for everything to pass by. also how do you think job security will be??

If you follow the 8% rule, that is to cut your losses and sell when you're down 8%, you'll do well in the long term. Anywhere between 0 and -8% is market volatility, beyond that, you're treading in trouble water.

Re: Re: Arrived: Recession

quote:

Originally posted by fury

Good thing i moved all my risky 401K investments to safer ones like fixed income & bonds.

quote:

Originally posted by 72hrpartyanimal any advice to help us out during this time...

Here's one that has been proven to work... don't spend what you don't have and try to save for a rainy day. Looks like rain for a few years.

lol i was waiting for this thread to pop up today

going by the defintion, i don't think we've done two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP yet.

but yeah, after maneuvering through the market with just a few holdings over the last many months, i finally got all out about three months ago.. was just too busy to follow the market

Wait, if i don't have any money in the stock market and stuff, am i safe?

quote:

Originally posted by Miss Julia Wait, if i don't have any money in the stock market and stuff, am i safe?

lol

quote:

Originally posted by 2tall going by the defintion, i don't think we've done two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP yet. but yeah, after maneuvering through the market with just a few holdings over the last many months, i finally got all out about three months ago.. was just too busy to follow the market

yes by definition it is 2 consecutive quarters so in actuality an official ruling of a recession can't be declared until 6 months into it but merrill lynch has already had the foresight to acknowledge the recession that has begun and the others are either in denial or predict it later, such as Q3 or Q4 of this year.

but make no mistake, it doesn't take a wall street analyst to see that it has begun.

enjoy your stay everyone



Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke pauses while discussing the near-term economic outlook during testimony before the House Budget Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington in this Thursday, Jan. 17, 2008 file photo. (AP Photo/Dennis Cook. File)

quote:

Originally posted by Miss Julia Wait, if i don't have any money in the stock market and stuff, am i safe?

yeah, you are fine in that respect, but if you have a mortgage get a fixed rate now.

if you are a renter then just hope the blow back from the recession we've entered doesn't impact your job/income

i have an idea! let's soften the landing by inflating the shit out of the dollar!

quote:

Originally posted by R!CH i have an idea! let's soften the landing by inflating the shit out of the dollar!

seriously, bernanke and the fed reserve are fucking retarded. they need to let the housing, construction, stock market, etc, correction continue so that it can finally finish, get all the bad out, all the write downs, and we can see a bottom and began to stabilize and ultimately grow.

but instead he overreacts and cuts rates and drives the dollar into the ground.

The FED cut interest rates by .75 and yet the market BARELY rebounded. I noticed just a bit ago that the DOW formed a �head & shoulders� pattern which is extremely bearish. After it broke the neckline it took a major dive and I don�t see any support until 11,000-11,300. It will be interesting if we get a bounce or if stocks keep heading south from that point.



The best industry you can invest in through these times is Agricultural stocks. I believe industry will outperform almost any other in 2008. Also, I would invest in global markets with high growth. Such as China was a great place to invest in 2007 with around a 10% growth rate, when the average around the world is ~2%. India is an amazing economy to look into for 2008 too. If you are confident that the market will continue to crash for a good portion of the year, then I would start looking for bubble stocks to short. If not, load up on bear market ETFs to make a killing� but only buy those after the market bounces and begins to retreat again.

quote:

Originally posted by Miss Julia Wait, if i don't have any money in the stock market and stuff, am i safe?

Technically no... the dollar has been deflating its value over the past several years. Just look at this two year chart of the dollar vs. euro:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USD...l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

By the FED cutting interest rates only decreases the value of the dollar even more, and it encourages inflation.

http://www.etrade.com/

For those that want to fight against inflation, etrade is offering 5.05% APR on their savings account. There are plenty of other venues out there, just make sure to choose one that is FDIC insured with a 5% APR or greater.

well that is why we should all vote in a democrat, because they are going to pull us out of the war and economic turmoil, just like they are promising

quote:

Originally posted by ninetyninej seriously, bernanke and the fed reserve are fucking retarded. they need to let the housing, construction, stock market, etc, correction continue so that it can finally finish, get all the bad out, all the write downs, and we can see a bottom and began to stabilize and ultimately grow. but instead he overreacts and cuts rates and drives the dollar into the ground.

its reminiscent of the short-sighted ceo looking to prop up quarterly numbers at the expense of the firm's long-term profitability. an inflated dollar is more dangerous than a recession. recessions are natural economic cycles. they impact some sectors more than others. inflated currency makes banks and markets start reconsidering what currency they trade in and it impacts everyone but the ultra-wealthy. seems like the hallmark of the bush presidency is to inject politics into all of our supposedly non-partisan institutions. the cia, the courts, the fed... this is all politically motivated. the job of the fed is to control inflation, not soften recession. god i miss greenspan.

quote:

Originally posted by diskodave The best industry you can invest in through these times is Agricultural stocks. I believe industry will outperform almost any other in 2008. Also, I would invest in global markets with high growth. Such as China was a great place to invest in 2007 with around a 10% growth rate, when the average around the world is ~2%. India is an amazing economy to look into for 2008 too.

brazil too. my cousin's husband who's a commodities broker in south america is swimming in money right now. i mean he is disgusting rich. all from the work he does in brazil.

quote:

Originally posted by R!CH its reminiscent of the short-sighted ceo looking to prop up quarterly numbers at the expense of the firm's long-term profitability. an inflated dollar is more dangerous than a recession. recessions are natural economic cycles. they impact some sectors more than others. inflated currency makes banks and markets start reconsidering what currency they trade in and it impacts everyone, but the ultra-wealthy. seems like the hallmark of the bush presidency is to inject politics into all of our supposedly non-partisan institutions. the cia, the courts, the fed... this is all politically motivated. the job of the fed is to control inflation, not soften recession. god i miss greenspan.

well said

God i wish i had a picture of the ny times that was titled 'AMERICA FOR SALE'

such a good article that cnbc reported on a week or so ago about the weakening dollar and the fact that liquidity has gotten so bad that merrill, citi, etc were going over seas to lure investors, like the saudi prince for example putting in billions to citi because US is desperate for capital reserves. hell if it wasn't for china, switzerland, middle east, u.k., japan, etc etc etc, the US would run out of money and go bankrupt!

quote:

Originally posted by groovedaddy21

just to be clear, recession is NOT even official yet. things arent looking good however.

for all the people who are hyping about foreign emerging markets, think again. these countries largely rely on the US economy no matter how 'emerging' they are. nikkei down about 10% in 2 days, DAX about 8%, HSI down 5%.. list goes on. emerging markets are much more volatile and i dont think its a good idea to be in volatile positions at this moment. foreign market is good for diversification's sake.

how many of you people are traders/daytraders? how many of you are in the financial business? and what are your predictions and what do you guys recommend at times like these?

i personally never traded in recessionary times but probably the best bet in times like these is probably recession proof stocks or even high yielding CDs or money market accounts. get a good rate from a bank and go to your nearest credit union and let them match the rate of the CD term (make sure the credit union is financially stable/well off by researching their financials). family dollar just came to mind when writing this and looking at todays chart shares were up 8%+ (FDO). no major news out today except of the news that was out last week that the company is RAISING their dividends.

according to an article at yahoo finance:
Assets in money market funds ballooned by $15.96 billion to a high of $3.17 trillion.
investors pulled an estimated $18.2 billion out of mutual funds.

feds aid to the economy is like a double edged sword. yea good job raising supply of money but what are you going to do with inflation after were out of recession. IMO, the best thing they could have done was wait as long as possible and try not to lower rates at LEAST til the end of the month. i wonder how low dow would have dropped if fed didnt drop the rate (probably 500-600 points max?) now theyre gonna drop the rate like crazy and once recession is over hike the rate so fast in order to beat inflation. sounds like history is repeating again.

quote:

Originally posted by djGT http://www.etrade.com/ For those that want to fight against inflation, etrade is offering 5.05% APR on their savings account. There are plenty of other venues out there, just make sure to choose one that is FDIC insured with a 5% APR or greater.

i was just going to mention the risk of etrade but just realized theyre FDIC insured (i guess every public company is FDIC insured). does anyone know how FDIC really works? do they really give your money back right away or do they first try to liquidate a company and then try to pay off liabilities in that way?

quote:

Originally posted by stefanoc just to be clear, recession is NOT even official yet. things arent looking good however.

quote:

Originally posted by ninetyninej yes by definition it is 2 consecutive quarters so in actuality an official ruling of a recession can't be declared until 6 months into it but merrill lynch has already had the foresight to acknowledge the recession that has begun and the others are either in denial or predict it later, such as Q3 or Q4 of this year. but make no mistake, it doesn't take a wall street analyst to see that it has begun. enjoy your stay everyone

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