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Posted by Q5echo on Mar-05-2008 03:57:

Super Tuesday II

Hillary is pulling it straight out of her ass right now.

discuss.

Posted by MisterOpus1 on Mar-05-2008 04:12:

Re: Super Tuesday II

quote:
Originally posted by Q5echo
Hillary is pulling it straight out of her ass right now.

discuss.

I'd take great pleasure in strangling every freakin' MSM mouthpiece who're speculating about a "major" Clinton comeback should she win both big states. They're doing their best to keep the story alive, of course, but Obama will still have the lead with the delegates unless she wins by like 60% in both Ohio and Texas, which is extraordinarily unlikely.

She can pull anything she wants out of her ass, but this sucker was over since Super Tuesday a month ago. The Superdelegates will be talking in her ear tomorrow for her and her fucking gigantic ego to get the hell out.

Posted by Q5echo on Mar-05-2008 04:23:

Re: Re: Super Tuesday II

quote:
Originally posted by MisterOpus1
I'd take great pleasure in strangling every freakin' MSM mouthpiece who're speculating about a "major" Clinton comeback should she win both big states. They're doing their best to keep the story alive, of course, but Obama will still have the lead with the delegates unless she wins by like 60% in both Ohio and Texas, which is extraordinarily unlikely.

She can pull anything she wants out of her ass, but this sucker was over since Super Tuesday a month ago. The Superdelegates will be talking in her ear tomorrow for her and her fucking gigantic ego to get the hell out.

believe me, i somewhat feel your frustration but i differ in knowing that yes, it would be one hell of a comeback. "major" would be an understatement IMO. it's definitely a shift in the Democrat paradigm. pretty newsworthy if you ask me. i'd hate to see the MSM repress it thats for sure.

i mean from purely an observational perspective it really puts some faith back in the system IMO. candidates, through there constituants, really can be determiners of their own destinies.

Posted by josh4 on Mar-05-2008 04:52:

Re: Re: Super Tuesday II

quote:
Originally posted by MisterOpus1
I'd take great pleasure in strangling every freakin' MSM mouthpiece who're speculating about a "major" Clinton comeback should she win both big states. They're doing their best to keep the story alive, of course, but Obama will still have the lead with the delegates unless she wins by like 60% in both Ohio and Texas, which is extraordinarily unlikely.

She can pull anything she wants out of her ass, but this sucker was over since Super Tuesday a month ago. The Superdelegates will be talking in her ear tomorrow for her and her fucking gigantic ego to get the hell out.

Its easy to share these sentiments when you're supporting Obama. If the situation were reversed I could easily see myself clinging to hope that things change and understand a desire to stick with it when a comeback is technically possible.

Posted by Lebezniatnikov on Mar-05-2008 04:58:

Hillary had a very good week on the trail. The NAFTA thing killed Obama in Ohio, and I have a feeling we're just hearing the beginning of the Rezko trial. Bad timing, but I think he's got enough buffer to carry him through - it's pretty unlikely that Hillary makes up any real ground in pledged delegates tonight even if she does carry Texas.

Posted by Spacey Orange on Mar-05-2008 06:20:

i hope obama has learned that you don't take a knife to a gun fight.

Posted by Renegade on Mar-05-2008 07:13:

Considering this was her "firewall" she couldn't be that happy with how things went tonight. She'll have the "media narrative" for a few days, but her gain in delegates (especially after the Texas Caucus results come through) will be negligible. Considering these were two states where she held 20%+ leads a couple of weeks ago, these results really aren't good enough for her. Before tonight she needed to win something like 58% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination. 55-43 and 51-47 (excluding caucus results) means that she's going to need 60%+ from here on.

She can spin it how she wants, but the only way Obama can lose this from here is if it's taken from him by the DLC. The Democrats are pretty good at self-destructing, but not even they would be stupid enough to hand the nomination to someone who lost the popular vote and the delegate count in the primaries.

EDIT: If she wins every contest from here by 25 points (so 62-37) she will still lose by 50 delegates:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2.../3056/80/468751
http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

Posted by Chryz707 on Mar-05-2008 08:25:

But the Superdelagates can be her saving grace.

Posted by TranceGiant on Mar-05-2008 08:50:

There's something about Hillary that remids me of "Boris the Blade" from Snatch. If I only knew what it was...

Posted by Renegade on Mar-05-2008 09:13:

quote:
Originally posted by Chryz707
But the Superdelagates can be her saving grace.

The superdelegates will break for whoever wins the pledged delegates / popular vote. If they don't, there'll be riots in the streets.

Let's be honest: the only way Hillary can win from here is by destroying the party. She can't win fairly and she certainly can't win democratically. If she takes this to Denver and wins the nomination by convincing the party bigwigs to vote for her against the will of the people, I will personally tattoo "McCain '08" onto my chest and sell my car to see that I can do everything in my financial power to stop her becoming president.

The Republicans must be loving this circus right now.

Posted by josh4 on Mar-05-2008 09:44:

Posted by Q5echo on Mar-05-2008 11:13:

quote:
Originally posted by Renegade
The superdelegates will break for whoever wins the pledged delegates / popular vote. If they don't, there'll be riots in the streets.

Let's be honest: the only way Hillary can win from here is by destroying the party. She can't win fairly and she certainly can't win democratically. If she takes this to Denver and wins the nomination by convincing the party bigwigs to vote for her against the will of the people, I will personally tattoo "McCain '08" onto my chest and sell my car to see that I can do everything in my financial power to stop her becoming president.

The Republicans must be loving this circus right now.

not necessarily. youve presumed the "Messiah" has already been annointed. it may seem that way to you supporters of course but lets be honest, right?...he's not.

the race is now, going forward (b/c it's not over yet), for Obama to lose. which is completely plausible.

if he manages to err enough, forced or unforced, we'll quickly see a tipping of the super-delegate scales and won't in any way be an illegitimate victory like youre suggesting. i'm not saying it won't be spun that way (i wouldn't expect anything less from the Messiah friendly press) but it would be a reflection or referendum on the Democrat party structure itself, not an abuse of it.

she'll also try her damnedest to get those votes counted in Flo-ri-da and Michigan in which again was a consequence of the Party structure and policy.

...then we'll be loving the circus

Posted by Chryz707 on Mar-05-2008 12:49:

I would pay money to see that happen. I hope Hillary does get it. She is the better choice in my opinion and really is the only one who can beat McCain. I think the Republicans have some things brewing if they have to deal with Obama to bury him and win it.

quote:
Originally posted by Renegade I will personally tattoo "McCain '08" onto my chest and sell my car to see that I can do everything in my financial power to stop her becoming president.

Posted by Lebezniatnikov on Mar-05-2008 14:19:

quote:
Originally posted by Renegade

The Republicans must be loving this circus right now.

Actually, they're not.

The Democratic primary hasn't gone this far into the season in a long, long time, and there have been some huge gains in organizational infrastructure made by the Democratic party in places like Texas and Ohio - battleground states that will be huge in November.

In Texas turnout in the Democratic primary was 3.8 million. That's a staggering number considering John Kerry only received 2.4 million votes in the general election in '04. The infrastructure of the party, if not the public face of it, has improved dramatically.

Posted by Renegade on Mar-05-2008 22:48:

quote:
Originally posted by Q5echo
not necessarily. youve presumed the "Messiah" has already been annointed. it may seem that way to you supporters of course but lets be honest, right?...he's not.

the race is now, going forward (b/c it's not over yet), for Obama to lose. which is completely plausible.

From here, barring some unimaginable fuck-up, Obama really can't lose the pledged delegate count or the popular vote. He is leading her by 10 points in national polls. If all this holds - and there is little reason to suspect it won't - Hillary can't expect to win this without usurping the direct will of the people.

This is an email from the Obama team:

quote:
Projections show the most likely outcome of yesterday's elections will be that Hillary Clinton gained 187 delegates, and we gained 183.

That's a net gain of 4 delegates out of more than 370 delegates available from all the states that voted.

For comparison, that's less than half our net gain of 9 delegates from the District of Columbia alone. It's also less than our net gain of 8 from Nebraska, or 12 from Washington State. And it's considerably less than our net gain of 33 delegates from Georgia.

The task for the Clinton campaign yesterday was clear. In order to have a plausible path to the nomination, they needed to score huge delegate victories and cut into our lead.

They failed.

[...]

The chatter among pundits may have gotten better for the Clinton campaign after last night, but by failing to cut into our lead, the math -- and their chances of winning -- got considerably worse.

Today, we still have a lead of more than 150 delegates, and there are only 611 pledged delegates left to win in the upcoming contests.

By a week from today, we will have competed in Wyoming and Mississippi. Two more states and 45 more delegates will be off the table.

It's over. She's finished. Making this go all the way to the convention is only going to tear the party in half. I know that Hillary isn't particularly concerned about that, but Dean and the rest of the DLC should be. Like Opus said, if the Democrats are going to win in November, the superdelegates should start throwing their weight behind Obama and the DLC should be having a word in Clinton's ear right now. A protracted, spiteful contest from here isn't going to benefit anyone, not even Hillary.

quote:
if he manages to err enough, forced or unforced, we'll quickly see a tipping of the super-delegate scales and won't in any way be an illegitimate victory like youre suggesting. i'm not saying it won't be spun that way (i wouldn't expect anything less from the Messiah friendly press) but it would be a reflection or referendum on the Democrat party structure itself, not an abuse of it.

Of course, but if Hillary were to win in such a way there would still be riots in the streets, whether it's within the rules of the Democratic primary system or not. If the Democrats want to lose in November, all they have to do is completely ignore the will of their supporters. That's what a Hillary win will necessarily amount to.

quote:
she'll also try her damnedest to get those votes counted in Flo-ri-da and Michigan in which again was a consequence of the Party structure and policy.

I don't think any Obama supporters would begrudge Hillary a "do-over" in those states, but there is no way that she can expect to be given delegates from those contests when, you know, she was the only candidate on the fucking ballot.

You know what Q? I think I finally understand why you Republicans hate her so much...

Posted by Renegade on Mar-05-2008 22:53:

quote:
Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov
Actually, they're not.

The Democratic primary hasn't gone this far into the season in a long, long time, and there have been some huge gains in organizational infrastructure made by the Democratic party in places like Texas and Ohio - battleground states that will be huge in November.

In Texas turnout in the Democratic primary was 3.8 million. That's a staggering number considering John Kerry only received 2.4 million votes in the general election in '04. The infrastructure of the party, if not the public face of it, has improved dramatically.

Well there's that, and there's also the advantage of having Hillary and Obama get all the press for the next three months while McCain fades out of the spotlight. But I don't think that these benefits in themselves outweigh the negatives of a protracted, spiteful, divisive campaign. Hillary has been rewarded once for going "sink and all" with the negatives, there's no reason to think she won't keep it up from here.

I fail to see any positives in that for the party.

Posted by Magnetonium on Mar-06-2008 02:39:

This could be the first time ever that I picked an incorrect candidate to win in US elections. I picked Clinton to win democratic nomination even as early as 3 years ago, when Clinton made a serious move towards her long-term political career. As long as the voting machines are on her side *cough cough*, she'll continue kicking.

Its funny how in 2000 I was telling all my friends that Bush was gonna win, and all my friends were laughing, like am I for real or what. But I knew that the forces of evil are powerful. As charismatic and womanly Hillary can be, I don't think she as feminist and as transparent as she wants us to see her.