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US Bail-out

For what it's worth, here's the summary of the bail out I put together.

So I finished reading over the 450 pages of the bail out that was written into law in October. Unfortunately I've now got to figure out what modifications have been done, but here are some notes on the original law.

Overview
It is organized into three 'Divisions'. The first one is a modified version of the bail out that was initially rejected, the second one is all about energy, the third one is about taxes.

Division A
The whole point of this bill is to make sure that banks don't become insolvant. The way they wanted to do this was to buy up the riskiest loans that the banks had made; 'toxic assets'. The wording is a bit misleading though, my intuition is that the government would not end up with risky assets but would simply get assets that were already lost.

There's some wording that makes me think the government expects to run into really dodgy practices as it begins scrutinizing actual mortgage dealers.

I'm pretty sure that one of the changes (still have to double check) between the rejected and the passed bill is that the one that passed has a section that says the FBI is to go over the whole program.

Division B
Let the pork begin!

I found it interesting that in these new 'divisions' it is pretty easy to see which changes are Democratic and which are Republican.

There is a lot of incentive creation and renewal for 'green tech.', including energy generation, coal 'cleaning', and transportation infrastructure changes. For the most part Division B is very progressive and the world in general should be happy it passed.

Title IV is one area that made me do a double take. It is all about oil and with the exception of a doubling of the amount oil companies have to pay to insure against oil spills the section wasn't clear (to me) which makes me cautious.

Division C
For the most part this is the boring part.

It's also the part where the worst provisions are inserted.

Title III has a section on 'training teachers in order to promote appropriate market driven technology in the classroom' (page 286-287). This seems like an ideological attack on education.

Title III also has an incentive for first time buyers to buy houses in Washington DC, in the form of a tax credit extention. Odd that they want to encourage new buyers in the mists of a housing crisis. It makes a lot more sense when taken together with the zero per cent capital gains tax (normaly applied to house price gains), also in DC. It's clear that the politicians are trying to sell thier houses for maximum profit to people who are new to the market. SHADY!!!!

Title IV could be the most disturbing of all 450 pages. It is called 'Extension of Tax Administration Provisions' and all it does is delet three paragraphs from other pre-existing laws (I haven't looked them up yet). One of the deletions is to grant permanent Authority for undercover operations, the other two are to grant permanent authority for disclosure of information relating to terrorist activities. The fact that the title is deceptive (to reduce the number of people who would look into the actual law because it looks innocent in the table of contents) and that the actual modifications are not even included in the document makes me extremely leary of this sub-section.

Title V has the weirdest section in the whole document: "Sec. 503. Exemption from Excise Tax for Certain Wooden Arrows Designed for Use by Children." ???? Come on, this is pork for one or two people!

Maybe I should work on optimisim though, the import/export of certain (not all) wooden arrows designed for use by children is going to save us all and fix the problems that Lehmans and Bear Sterns left us with!

quote:

Originally posted by josh4

where did the 4.6 trillion number come from? any action by the fed shouldn't count because it isn't directly using taxpayer money.


assuming the 4.6 trillion number is correct, its probably misleading. comparing the total government projects as a percentage of GDP is probably a better measure.

quote:

Originally posted by ******** Now if the government gave money to me so that I could spend it, is this an equally acceptable premise? If it works fundamentally lets practices this on a small scale, who would like to volunteer in this experiment to be the government?

The US Government did give us money. Around the beginning of the year, they issued 'Stimulus Checks' to roughly all tax paying citizens.

quote:

Originally posted by ******** Wow, since I am now an US citizen does this mean I can cross the border without being locked up in a detainment facility or deported? Yah like the US banks are owned by US citizens ps correction is becuase it is difficult to deny I am an natural born american - born from the earth, but the US federal citizenship thing is something else entiremely. So did the cheques stimulate the economy.. why not keep giving them if the premise works. Who needs loans when you have stimulus cheques. Are you sure it wasn't my popularity ratings are 18% cheques rather than economic stimulus cheques?

Yikes, easy there tiger. I wasn't naming reasons as to why they did it. I'm just saying they did it. And yes, I know you're from Canada, hence why I 're-informed' you that it did happen. No, the money isn't directly from the Federal Govt, but they were issued through the IRS as a non-taxed 'givaway'.

can someone clarify that 4.6 trillion dollar figure?

i thought we were in the ballpark of a 1 trillion dollar hole.

quote:

Originally posted by DJ Damerchi can someone clarify that 4.6 trillion dollar figure? i thought we were in the ballpark of a 1 trillion dollar hole.

Here's my count:

700 Billion - Actual Bail-out
300 Billion - Second Bush admin. bail-out
80 Billion - AIG
20 Billion - Bear Stearns
700 Billion - Obama promised bail-out.
-----------------------------------
1.8 Trillion

I've seen something about more then that though. For some reason I remember hearing 5 Trillion which would be double the US debt before August 17, 2007.

If anyone could produce a complete list of US liabilities that have been added since that day back in oh-seven I bet you could sell it for a substantial amount of money. I don't think anyone has been able to put together a comprehensive list.

Somewhere I put together a more comprehensive list of US liabilities... I'll try to find it.

Here it is:

US States are set to loose 66.8 bn this year, that will come out of something called a 'general fund' which will end at about 520 bn after subtracting that amount.

Total value of the US mortgage market 42.7 trillion.

Total value of the US mortgage market where housing value is less then the value of the mortgage due, 7.8 trillion.

I have a feeling that a very high percentage of those mortgages where the value is less then the mortgage outstanding will default, say 15% ... that adds some 2.1 trillion or so.

bump

Peter Schiff on the economy...

PKC, I'm sure you'll love this clip... or at least it'll give you a reason to pack a bowl soon

Re: Peter Schiff on the economy...

quote:

Originally posted by shaolin_Z PKC, I'm sure you'll love this clip... or at least it'll give you a reason to pack a bowl soon

I've seen a few clips by this guy, mostly good, at least he's calling people out.

Trying to sustain the system is going to make the eventual failure worse.

I don't have the contempt for government spending that he does, but I'd be sure to target more specifically and make the wages paid for government created positions VERY low, sustinance wages; not buy a new plasma TV wages. Maybe have some kind of program where people on make-work jobs don't have the option of having credit.

Nice video.

Tell me, is this what they call freedom of speech?

quote:

Originally posted by atbell Here's my count: 700 Billion - Actual Bail-out 300 Billion - Second Bush admin. bail-out 80 Billion - AIG 20 Billion - Bear Stearns 700 Billion - Obama promised bail-out. ----------------------------------- 1.8 Trillion

What about Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac? What about backstopping $4 trillion in monkey market funds and giving unlimited FDIC insurance? We won't know the loss from those quiet bailouts until after the fact.. But the taxpayers could be on the hook for another trillion easily..

quote:

Originally posted by Capitalizt What about Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac? What about backstopping $4 trillion in monkey market funds and giving unlimited FDIC insurance? We won't know the loss from those quiet bailouts until after the fact.. But the taxpayers could be on the hook for another trillion easily..

yeah, that's part of what I'm trying to figure out.

The overall question that I've yet to get a decent answer about is How much is the US in debt?

There seems to be two distinct parts to the debt of the US, actual debt owed and liabilities.

The money market crap is a big liability, as are some unknown percentage of corporate debts.

If I had instant data available I'd add up the debts + some percentage of the liabilities to estimate. Clearly the percentage of the liabilities that go sour is open to debate but if that debate could start then at least people would be able to make thier own estimates.

My gut tells me it is a lot worse then anyone really thinks, partly because of the amount of debt decentralization that has gone on and partly because the numbers are so big that most people don't really grasp what they 'mean'.

*************************************

Edit: For instance, 700 billion is about enough for a country to build a competative navy from scratch, when I was pricing ice breaking cargo ships (expensive by any measure) they were around 70 million, thus you could get 1,000 of them with 700 billion.

If you assume that the extra money for the ice breaking capabilities could be used to arm ships then you've got a fleet of 1,000 military vessels for the price of the bail out.

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