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-- The incredible shrinking Russia

The incredible shrinking Russia

Read this George Will column last week... really interesting and disturbing. It basically explains how Russia is experiencing a rapid and seemingly unstoppable trend of population decline, for various reasons, that has only been seen in the past in times of war.

Here is an excerpt with a link to the full article below. I'd be interested on hearing from Magnetonium and others who maybe have some experience living over there as to their points of view:

quote:

Significant arms agreements are generally impossible until they are unimportant. Significant agreements are those that substantially alter an adversarial dynamic between rival powers. But arms agreements never do. During the Cold War, for example, arms negotiations were another arena of great power competition rather than an amelioration of that competition. The Soviet Union was a third-world nation with first-world missiles. It had, as Russia still has, an essentially hunter-gatherer economy, based on extraction industries -- oil, gas, minerals, furs. Other than vodka, for what manufactured good would you look to Russia? Caviar? It is extracted from the fish that manufacture it. Today, in a world bristling with new threats, the president suggests addressing an old one -- Russia's nuclear arsenal. It remains potentially dangerous, particularly if a portion of it falls into nonstate hands. But what is the future of the backward and backsliding kleptocratic thugocracy that is Vladimir Putin's Russia? Putin -- ignore the human Potemkin village (Dmitry Medvedev) who currently occupies the presidential office -- must be amazed and amused that America's president wants to treat Russia as a great power. Obama should instead study pertinent demographic trends. Nicholas Eberstadt's essay "Drunken Nation" in the current World Affairs quarterly notes that Russia is experiencing "a relentless, unremitting, and perhaps unstoppable depopulation." Previous episodes of depopulation -- 1917-23, 1933-34, 1941-46 -- were the results of civil war, Stalin's war on the "kulaks" and collectivization of agriculture, and World War II, respectively. But today's depopulation is occurring in normal -- for Russia -- social and political circumstances. Normal conditions include a subreplacement fertility rate, sharply declining enrollment rates for primary school pupils, perhaps more than 7 percent of children abandoned by their parents to orphanages or government care or life as "street children." Furthermore, "mind-numbing, stupefying binge drinking of hard spirits" -- including poisonously impure home brews -- "is an accepted norm in Russia and greatly increases the danger of fatal injury through falls, traffic accidents, violent confrontations, homicide, suicide, and so on." Male life expectancy is lower under Putin than it was a half-century ago under Khrushchev. Martin Walker of the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, writing in The Wilson Quarterly ("The World's New Numbers"), notes that Russia's declining fertility is magnified by "a phenomenon so extreme that it has given rise to an ominous new term -- hypermortality." Because of rampant HIV/AIDS, extreme drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) and alcoholism, and the deteriorating health care system, a U.N. report says "mortality in Russia is three to five times higher for men and twice as high for women" than in other countries at a comparable stage of development. The report, Walker says, "predicts that within little more than a decade the working-age population will be shrinking by up to 1 million people annually." Be that as it may, "Russia is suffering a demographic decline on a scale that is normally associated with the effects of a major war." According to projections by the United Nations Population Division, Russia's population, which was around 143 million four years ago, might be as high as 136 million or as low as 121 million in 2025, and as low as 115 million in 2030. Marx envisioned the "withering away" of the state under mature communism. Instead, Eberstadt writes, the world may be witnessing the withering away of Russia, where Marxism was supposed to be the future that works. Russia, he writes, "has pioneered a unique new profile of mass debilitation and foreshortened life previously unknown in all of human history." "History," he concludes, "offers no examples of a society that has demonstrated sustained material advance in the face of long-term population decline." Demography is not by itself destiny, but it is more real than an arms control "process" that merely expresses the liberal hope of taming the world by wrapping it snugly in parchment.

http://townhall.com/columnists/Geor...l&comments=true

fewer people doesn't mean weaker

^

Did anybody ever say that?

It's very dangerous to underestimate anyone, let alone a country. One would be better served to overestimate and then be relieved, than underestimate and then get a sobering shock.

By the way, even though what Will described may be true, don't underestimate the qualities of the Russian people. A British ambassador said recently of the boom in Moscow, "One of the things people forget about Russia is that, unlike other countries that went through regime changes, in Russia's case the fall of Communism left a highly skilled and intellectual workforce."

I greatly blame communism for these problems in Russia, a disease that is ravaging Russia heavily for almost a century now. A lot of people think that Russia was great in the 20th century, I don't. It came at a great price which in the end showed the exhaustion. Bolsheviks sucked out everything out of Russian (and as a matter of fact, Slavic) peoples, for decades destroying their culture, rituals, religion, bonds, etc. and constantly telling them what to do and how to run their lives. A country and legacy built by slaughtering millions of innocent people. A century of human misery, suffering and despair. When everything crumbled, people really saw how empty they are in their souls. Today Russia is continuing the downward trend. Only a powerful Russian Orthodox Church (in the future) can save the country. I can see it through resurgence of the Church and re-emerging Cossacks (who have strong cultural bonds - cultural re-awakening - and huge demographic growth for their groups). Or e;se the quickly growing Islamic population will overtake - they hardly drink and multiply in large numbers.

I lived there. I saw it. Among the moments of inspiration, pride and vision, there was so much degredation of society. People say its due to alcohol and bad economy, but I think the problem runs much deeper than that.

EDIT:

quote:

According to projections by the United Nations Population Division, Russia's population, which was around 143 million four years ago

In 1991, Russian population was about 149 million. It didnt just drop by 7 million since then, but by a much larger margin - thats because the losses were greatly offset by immigration to Russia of peoples from the former Soviet bloc (mostly ethnic Russians). I'd say about 10-15 million people immigrated to Russia since 1991. So the demographic decline over than period would be about negative 20 million people.

BUT THEN AGAIN, Russia has experienced a period of weakening and retreat before. Russia has faded away only to re-emerge later numerous times. The nation is far from dead. They are just going through the motions.

quote:

Originally posted by Atmos ^ Did anybody ever say that?

yes the second half of the article tries to link the "withering" of the population with weakness stating "History," he concludes, "offers no examples of a society that has demonstrated sustained material advance in the face of long-term population decline."

what does history say about countries who print their money without restraint? what does history say about countries controlled by zionist interests? what does history say about a country that wages war against smaller thrid world countries and still fails miserably?

i also think it's a fucking joke that they criticize russia over developing its own natural resources and saying it doesn't manufacture anything. how's the american manufacturing sector? factories closing left and right with most of the shit being made in china or some other country.

just another example of jews and their fear of putin because he won't let them control him.

quote:

Originally posted by HardTranceProd By the way, even though what Will described may be true, don't underestimate the qualities of the Russian people. A British ambassador said recently of the boom in Moscow, "One of the things people forget about Russia is that, unlike other countries that went through regime changes, in Russia's case the fall of Communism left a highly skilled and intellectual workforce."

Good point... the Russian's I've met in my adult life who want a better life for themselves and their families are good, hard working people. And because of the circumstances in their country growing up, they've almost been forced to become more clever in how to get ahead and make money. I find their perspectives on business and strategy refreshing sometimes because they come up with shit I'd never think of.

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