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-- What will end the war in afghanistan - why is it still happening?

They believe they can passify the Pashtuns. Eventually, they will fail. This is no longer about 9/11.

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Originally posted by Krypton They believe they can passify the Pashtuns. Eventually, they will fail. This is no longer about 9/11.

Who will fail? Your attempts at being cryptic always fall flat on their face.

Re: What will end the war in afghanistan - why is it still happening?

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Originally posted by ******** Is it an attempt at genocide?

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Originally posted by Halcyon+On+On Who will fail? Your attempts at being cryptic always fall flat on their face.

The occupation will fail. Just like it did for the British and Soviets.

Do you suppose the specifics of their "failures" have really made a difference though? Obviously they're not really there anymore, but war takes place on innumerable imperceptible levels - culturally and militarily, the Pashtun people have endured irrevocable change due to their hardships. Even if the US were to rescind its every last troop and representative (private contractors included), Afghanistan would still be forced to not only recuperate in every civic sense, but also be impelled to defend itself from whatever future exists for a bone amongst vultures. Perhaps temporary sovereignty shall some day come to the country and its people, but it shall not be in the form of any victory or revolution or united seditious endeavour against the world's tyrannies, but in leaving the Bedouins alone so they can wallow in the remnants of a time-tarnished tradition and either assimilate themselves into the devices of current civilization or fade into the desert as the winds that made them.

Never forget that your fervor is at the behest of the chair which holds your ass from the dirt.

Halcyon, what exactly is your point?

What does failure look like? Don't you first need to define success?

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Originally posted by Krypton Halcyon, what exactly is your point?

The Pashtuns have already been passified[sic].

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Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov What does failure look like? Don't you first need to define success?

A very fair question.

The thing that ends the war is the very thing that isnt visible. first they need to fracture the leadership of the Taliban which is starting to happen. Then they need to stop or at best try to slow down or hinder the Opium trade. This can put a real damper on the Taliban. Another thing thats the problem is we can get into Pakistan without them crying that we are invading them... UAV's are very effective but its like only using air assets to fight a war, its not really able to get in and win without troops on the ground. it will be endless unless we can get them out of that corridor in Pakistan really.

Obama looks to be putting more heat on the Taliban in Afghanistan. This war has been in the news more often lately. He seems to be interested in narrowing the targets.

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Originally posted by Krypton The occupation will fail. Just like it did for the British and Soviets.

Both the British Empire and Soviet comunisim collapsed shortly after they realized they could not occupy Afganistan. I tend to think that if the US isn't honestly seeking objective self determination it will also bring the US civilization to it's knees, with one possible exception: it might have already happened.

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Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov What does failure look like? Don't you first need to define success?

It would probably be massive economic stagnation, the loss of wealth, a substantial decrease in living standars and a loss of national political power. Then there would probably be a lot of unemployment, tons of debt, and institutions that begin to be unable to meet thier obligations (California / GM)

Chompsky argues that the US is already a failed state, others might as well. (in 'Failed States', the one Chavez held up at the UN)

Joseph Tainter makes an important distinction in his book 'The collapse of complex societies' where he points out that there is a difference between a collapse and a decline. Rome declined; it lost pre-eminance, complexity, population, and influence over a period measured in hundreds of years. The viking collony on Greenland collapsed; it disapeared in a matter of a single generation.

Jarred Diamons book 'Collapse' offers some decent insight but it's long winded imo. I don't have his arguments in memory right now but the book is in my stack to include in my upcomming writing.

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Originally posted by Chryz707 The thing that ends the war is the very thing that isnt visible. first they need to fracture the leadership of the Taliban which is starting to happen. Then they need to stop or at best try to slow down or hinder the Opium trade. This can put a real damper on the Taliban. Another thing thats the problem is we can get into Pakistan without them crying that we are invading them... UAV's are very effective but its like only using air assets to fight a war, its not really able to get in and win without troops on the ground. it will be endless unless we can get them out of that corridor in Pakistan really.

Yes fracturing the Taliban is needed to end the war.

No slowing the opium trade is not required, although controling it might be.

Yes Pakistan poses a dificult problem. Don't forget that the Pashtun made it within 70km of Islamabad this summer as they occupied the Swat vally. This is hardly a passified group of people.

thedoggyworld - yes Obama is putting a lot more pressure on the Afgans. This is in line with his proposal in his pre-election essay that was published in Forign Affairs (posted on this forum somewhere). IMO it's a needed step in the right direction for US foreign policy. It was looking really bad that the initial attack was only an attack and not an attack and disarm. If Obama and his team are able to calm that country and not just cut and run like Iraq, then the US will gain major international political capital.

Oh, another thing that would end the war is that the West could loose. I think this wouldn't look like a loss as one might expect though, it's not as if the Taliban are going to be sailing up the Potomak and burning down the white house, that's way to British a move anyway

I think a US / Western 'loss' would be a forced withdrawl due to economic crisis. It's not unthinkable but only time will tell. The real story about the crisis won't be seen until late August / early September as everyone comes back from vacations.

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