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What would happen next if... (Iraq-global related topic)

Suppose America invades Iraq. Suppose Saddam's army loses battle after battle and America control half of the country. Suppose the country is about to fall into American hands. Right?
Now, suppose Saddam, seeing no other alternative to prevent America from controlling the country, decides to invoke his chemical arsenal and the number of American casualties is high (say 1000).
What would happen next?
Conventional or non-conventional (= nuclear, chemical or biological) counter-attack by the USA? Small scale or mass-destruction? What do you think?

Re: What would happen next if... (Iraq-global related topic)

quote:

Originally posted by Belgian Bonzai Suppose America invades Iraq. Suppose Saddam's army loses battle after battle and America control half of the country. Suppose the country is about to fall into American hands. Right? Now, suppose Saddam, seeing no other alternative to prevent America from controlling the country, decides to invoke his chemical arsenal and the number of American casualties is high (say 1000). What would happen next? Conventional or non-conventional (= nuclear, chemical or biological) counter-attack by the USA? Small scale or mass-destruction? What do you think?

I kind of doubt the U.S. would counter with anything too powerful. Even though we'd be pretty pissed off, you still shouldn't use a sledgehammer to kill a fly. Even though our government is stupid, I doubt they would see any strategic advantage (either militarily or politically) to countering with similar weapons of their own, especially given that ours are so much more powerful than his anyway. If we did that, it would be almost impossible to contain the destruction within Iraqi borders.

Personally, I don't think 1000 casualties in a war are a big deal, but I know our government and our press would make a huge deal out of it. I just don't think they'd be quite insane enough to use similar tactics in response - especially after all the flak the U.S. catches about the use of nuclear weapons in the past (even though they saved lives on both sides by doing so and ending the war quickly).

If he releases his chemical/biological arsenal, there'd probably be more than 1000 american casualties. If he does that, he'll probably unleash those weapons at the israeli civilians also. The death toll would be very high then, and whatever america does, it would lose much of it's international support, demonstrations would sprout throughout the us, and so on. On the other hand, many people would want total extermination of Iraq. Judging by Bush's character, he'd probably then unleash massive attack on Iraq. Maybe even small tactical nuclear devices which are currently being developed. That would sprout a wave of islamic fundamentalism throughout the region. The results might turn up to be like what happened in Vietnam in the end...more harm than good.

my analysis of the war, if it were to take place

the beginning would be like any other america war in the past 20 years. heavy air attacks on military and strategic targets, crippling the military machine of the iraqi's. if that alone does not cause saddam to buckly a ground force would definitly be sent in. i would see saddam trying now to send off his pety scuds at whatever targets he could muster. i see this coming from two waves, the north and the south. In the north light american forces with heavy kurd forces (the new northern alliance which has put thier pety fueds aside and united during secret meetings that have already taken place). these forces will attack from two possible areas, the iran-iraq border in the northern parts or more likely, the turkish-iraq border in the north. the brunt of the US. From the south the majority of US troops would invade coming from kuwait and using the highway to get straight to baghdad. during this double wave i think saddam will see he has no chance and start putting on those banned warheads onto his missles, be it scuds or regular katushas. he will launch them everywhere, israel, kuwait, turkey and try to make as much damage as possible. another option i heard him doing is sending out planes that would spart chemical or biological agents over populated areas, he would probably send these planes out from the areas least patrolled by radars, being the south west borders with saudia and jordan. after saddam's counter of WOMD, i think the world would be outraged and see to it the his regime is changed completely. i doubt that america would retaliate with chem/bio/nukes of their own but would definitly begin a new more agressive air bombing assualt taking higher risk targets where civilians might be killed. i personally belive most the other arab states will do the smart thing and stay quiet during the whole ordeal and make sure to qual any pro saddam protests in their countries (because those same protesters would be a danger to the local government anyways). anyways thats what i just think... hopefully none of this happens and saddam will decide to leave power and live in a lavish exile somewhere.

quote:

after saddam's counter of WOMD, i think the world would be outraged and see to it the his regime is changed completely.

First, at the time that would happen, Saddam's regime would be already a day or two before its fall. Therefore, the world reaction wouldn't matter anymore. Secondly, very many people would blame america for what happened, because if america didn't attack, it wouldn't have happened. Maybe not you, but many people would. I don't think people would after that approve any US intervention in middle east, because it would mean thousands or eve millions of civilian deaths in the area. Especially the arab countries. Would say, Jordan agree to another intervention if there's a possibility that they'd be attacked in act of desparation and have thousands of casualties? Not likely.

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Originally posted by DrUg_Tit0 Secondly, very many people would blame america for what happened, because if america didn't attack, it wouldn't have happened. Maybe not you, but many people would.

you're right i wouldnt, i dont see how you can blame america for iraq using those weapons, first of all it would prove that saddam has been lying flagrantly about his weapons and second if he had them anyways whats to say he would not have used them if america hadnt attacked?

If and when this breaks out, you know that Saddam has no hope in hell of having a victory. If he has CHM/BIO weapons, why wouldn't he unleash them on the opponents? In retaliation, I don't think US would release the equivalent, however they would unleash a fury like we've never seen. Remember, the idea is to overthrow Saddam's regime without having too many civilian casualties (something that would be difficult to do with CHM or BIO weapons. We'll see how this plays out. What will be interesting is when they get close to Baghdad.

Also, if this does break out, the whole scenario will have a weird taste, different then 10 years ago. Cuz you know that this is "all or nothing". No liberation of Kuwait, rather Liberation of Iraq from Saddam's regime. The US will not accept anything less than victory this time around.

TP

US army generals made it clear that if Saddam would use any non conventional weapon they would retaliate on a massive scale, on the whole of the country, even using nukes...

i expect the US to try whatever they can to get massive defections from the armies or people close inside the regime so they can defeat easily saddam. if not, then the american army will have to engage in an urban warfare which is the last thing they want. it won't be 100 deaths or 1000 american deaths, but scores more...

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you're right i wouldnt, i dont see how you can blame america for iraq using those weapons, first of all it would prove that saddam has been lying flagrantly about his weapons and second if he had them anyways whats to say he would not have used them if america hadnt attacked?

Because american attack provoked use of those weapons. Yes, it would prove he had them, so what. Everyone would hate Saddam, but he'd already be dead. Last, whats to say that america won't use WOMD on Iraq or any other country right now? It's not sure, but it's definitely not probable. Saddam would just dig his own grave if he'd do that.

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