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-- UN Inspections Report
UN Inspections Report
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(CNN) -- The following are excerpts from Monday's reports to the U.N. Security Council by chief weapons inspector Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Hans Blix Overview "Unlike South Africa, which decided on its own to eliminate its nuclear weapons and welcomed the inspection as a means of creating confidence in its disarmament, Iraq appears not to have come to a genuine acceptance, not even today, of the disarmament which was demanded of it and which it needs to carry out to win the confidence of the world and to live in peace. "It is not enough to open doors. Inspection is not a game of catch as catch can. Rather, it is a process of verification for the purpose of building confidence." On Iraqi cooperation "Cooperation might be said to relate to both substance and process. It would appear from our experience so far that Iraq has decided in principle to provide cooperation on process, notably access. "A similar decision is indispensable to provide cooperation on substance in order to bring the disarmament task to completion through the peaceful process of inspection and to bring the monitoring task on a firm course." On Iraq's 12,000-page report "Regrettably, the 12,000-page declaration, most of which is a reprint of earlier documents, does not seem to contain any new evidence that will eliminate the questions or reduce their number." On chemical bombs "The [Iraqi weapons report] document indicates that 13,000 chemical bombs were dropped by the Iraqi air force between 1983 and 1998, while Iraq has declared that 19,500 bombs were consumed during this period. Thus, there is a discrepancy of 6,500 bombs. The amount of chemical agent in these bombs would be in the order of about 1,000 tons. In the absence of evidence to the contrary, we must assume that these quantities are now unaccounted for." On chemical rockets "The discovery of a few rockets does not resolve but rather points to the issue of several thousand of chemical rockets that are unaccounted for. The finding of the rockets shows that Iraq needs to make more effort to ensure that its declaration is currently accurate." On biological weapons "There are strong indications that Iraq produced more anthrax than it declared and that at least some of this was retained over the declared destruction date. It might still exist. "Either it should be found and be destroyed under UNMOVIC [U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission] supervision or else convincing evidence should be produced to show that it was indeed destroyed in 1991. "As I reported to the council on the 19th of December last year, Iraq did not declare a significant quantity, some 650 kilos, of bacterial growth media, which was acknowledged as reported in Iraq's submission to the Amorim panel in February 1999. "In the letter of 24th of January this year to the president of the Security Council, Iraq's foreign minister stated that, I quote, 'All imported quantities of growth media were declared.' This is not evident. I note that the quantity of media involved would suffice to produce, for example, about 5,000 liters of concentrated anthrax." On missiles "There remain significant questions as to whether Iraq retained Scud-type missiles after the Gulf War. Iraq declared the consumption of a number of Scud missiles as targets in the development of an anti-ballistic missile defense system during the 1980s, yet no technical information has been produced about that program or data on the consumption of the missiles." On recently discovered documents "The recent inspection find in the private home of a scientist of a box of some 3,000 pages of documents, much of it relating to the lacing enrichment of uranium, support a concern that has long existed that documents might be distributed to the homes of private individuals. This interpretation is refuted by the Iraqi side, which claims that research staff sometimes may bring papers from their workplaces. "On our side, we cannot help but think that the case might not be isolated and that such placements of documents is deliberate to make discovery difficult and to seek to shield documents by placing them in private homes." On scientist interviews "Today, 11 individuals were asked for interviews in Baghdad by us. The replies have been that the individual would only speak at Iraq's Monitoring Directorate or at any rate in the presence of an Iraq official. "This could be due to a wish on the part of the invited to have evidence that they have not said anything that the authorities did not wish them to say. At our recent talks in Baghdad, the Iraqi side committed itself to encourage persons to accept interviews in private, that is to say alone with us. Despite this, the pattern has not changed. "However, we hope that with further encouragement from the authorities, knowledgeable individuals will accept private interviews in Baghdad or abroad." Mohamed ElBaradei On Iraqi weapons report Mohamed ElBaradei, executive director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, arrives at the U.N. on Monday. "The Iraqi declaration was consistent with our existing understanding of Iraq's pre-1991 nuclear program. However, it did not provide any new information relevant to certain questions that have been outstanding since 1998, in particular, regarding Iraq progress prior to 1991 related to weapons design and centrifuge development. "While these questions do not constitute unresolved disarmament issues, they nevertheless need further clarification." On reports of attempted Iraqi procurement of high-strength aluminum tubes "From our analysis to date, it appears that the aluminum tubes would be consistent with the purpose stated by Iraq and unless modified would not be suitable for manufacture centrifuges. However, we are still investigating this issue. "It is clear, however, that the attempt to acquire such tubes is prohibited under Security Council Resolution 687." On reports of Iraqi efforts to import uranium "The Iraqi authorities have denied any such attempts. The IAEA will continue to pursue this issue. At this stage, however, we do not have enough information, and we would appreciate receiving more." On Iraqi cooperation "The international community will not be satisfied when questions remain open with regard to Iraq weapons of mass destruction. The world is asking for a high level of assurance that Iraq is completely free from all such weapons and is already impatient to receive it. "The sooner such assurance can be provided by the inspecting organizations, the sooner the prospects of a peaceful resolution will translate into a plausible reality." On more time for inspectors "Mr. President, to conclude, we have to date found no evidence that Iraq has revived its nuclear weapon program since the elimination of the program in the 1990s. However, our work is steadily progressing and should be allowed to run its natural course. With our verification system now in place, barring exceptional circumstances and provided there is sustained, proactive cooperation by Iraq, we should be able within the next few months to provide credible assurance that Iraq has no nuclear weapon program. "These few months, in my view, would be a valuable investment in peace because they could help us avoid a war. We trust that we will continue to have your support as we make every effort to verify Iraq's nuclear disarmament through peaceful means and to demonstrate that the inspection process can and does work as a central feature of the international nuclear arms control regime." |
I think the last paragraph sums it up nicely. Give the inspectors more time, let the UN do it's job.
also, on the subject of interviews in private, there is a conflict of interest either way.
if the scientist is interviewed in the presnce of a iraqi official, he may be compelled NOT to say there is any weapons (even if there is) why? because he fears for his life.
if the scientist is interviewed alone by a UN inspector, then he may be compelled to say that there ARE weapons (even if there isn't). why? because he could be bribed, coerced, blackmailed into doing so.
Personally, i think the chances of the first are 90 to 100%, and the chances of the second are more like 5 to 10%. those are serious charges that a UN official would do such a thing, but i do not underestimate the power of the US.
I am reminded of the time when the UN representative of Yemen voted "no", when the US wanted them to vote yes. the US rep immediately came to the yemeni rep, and said "that will be the most expensive no vote you ever cast" within weeks the entire US aid budget to yemen was eliminated. I believe this is not an isolated case of bribery, but rather an isolated case where the US was dumb enough to get caught.
the US wants a war, this is clear. if only one scientist were promised money, had his family threatened, etc, then he could be coerced into fabricating and "exposing" a WMD program. in this case the US could attack. the potential cost/benefit ratio for them is high, so they have motive.
still, i believe the iraqi regime is much more corrupt, and the chances are better that an impartial interview can be obtained WITHOUT the iraqi official there.
The last paragraph does not sum things up nicely. I agree that more time is needed, but pay attention to all the preceeding paragraphs which outlines the fact that Iraq is hiding SOMETHING. This whole fiasco is like a bad repeat of the OJ Simpson trial. You KNOW he's guilty, you have everything except photos of him committing the crime, yet we're still waiting for those photos to turn up before we convict him.
How is the UN going to coerce or blackmail a scientist into saying there are WOMD??? What would they do? What is Hans Blix gonna slap him around for a bit and force a statement out of him? Maybe throw him in jail? Kill him? Hahha this is starting to get a little ridiculous. Lets say this scientist is bribed, don't you think this scientists statements are going to be under INTENSE international scrutiny??? Do you think everybody is gonna be so stupid as to not realize that this scientist's story is completely fabricated and unverifiable and that his bank account is 10 times larger all of a sudden? Don't you think there would be a greater risk of this bribery doing more harm than good if it ever spills out into the public? Seriously, are you one of those people that thinks that humans never landed on the moon and that the whole thing is a government hoax?
Lastly, with regards to the Yemen issue, think of it what you will, but the pulling of aid from Yemen is called WORLD POLITICS not bribery. Every country utilizises their political clout to push forward their own agendas. Get off your high horse if you think that the US is the only country to practice it.
cmon man. i'm being as diplomatic as possible here. bribery or coercion is POSSIBLE, but like i said very unlikely. intimidation by iraqi officials is PROBABLY, i doubt there is nof influence.
as for yemen.. you wanna call that world politics? then you will understand why i hate US politicians.
here is further info:
http://www.zmag.org/content/print_a...61§ionID=40
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| Minutes after Yemen voted against the resolution to attack Iraq, a senior American diplomat told the Yemeni ambassador: "That was the most expensive 'no' vote you ever cast." Within three days, a US aid programme of $70m to one of the world's poorest countries was stopped. Yemen suddenly had problems with the World Bank and the IMF; and 800,000 Yemeni workers were expelled from Saudi Arabia. |
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