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squirrelly
The Phun Nun



Registered: Oct 2003
Location: In the Shower
N.H. Race Shapes Up Along Classic Lines

quote:
Primary Pits Insurgents Against Convention
By John F. Harris
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, January 26, 2004; Page A01


MANCHESTER, N.H., Jan. 25 -- For all its abrupt lurches and high suspense, the Democratic presidential race is unfolding along one of the most familiar plotlines in American politics -- an oft-told tale that has been told more often here in New Hampshire than anywhere else. Tuesday's vote has come down to a classic contest of novelty vs. convention.




The question looming over this week's vote is whether the historically contrarian New Hampshire electorate will assert itself in the last hours before voting to halt the upward draft that has lifted Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) since his come-from-behind victory in the Iowa caucuses. A politician who last year was dismissed as old hat is back in fashion, polls here uniformly indicate. Yet former Vermont governor Howard Dean, roughed up and ridiculed in the week since Iowa, apparently remains his most formidable rival here -- a state historically prone to late-breaking swings in public opinion and sympathetic to the kind of reformist message Dean is offering.

Success for these men -- as well as for the fortunes of retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark and Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) -- probably comes down to the fickle mood of the state's progressive-minded independents, clustered around college campuses and along the state's southern border with Massachusetts, political analysts say. It was such voters who two decades ago sent Sen. Gary Hart vaulting over former vice president Walter F. Mondale here in a stunning upset, and just four years ago kept the contest between then-Vice President Al Gore and former senator Bill Bradley a toss-up until the end.

"The key group is New Hampshire liberals," said Dante Scala, a political scientist at St. Anselm College and the author of a recent book on New Hampshire politics. "New Hampshire voters, especially on the Democratic side, have a soft spot for what political scientists call 'policy entrepreneurs' -- people who want to stir the pot or bring something new to reform the system," he said. "There's always that opening for someone who isn't the same old thing."

For the past 36 years, one party or the other, and sometimes both, have seen incarnations of this same choice -- traditional politicians against various breeds of insurgents, reformers or protest candidates -- in nominating contests for nearly all of the 10 presidential elections since 1968. That was the year when the Granite State's original insurgent, Sen. Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota, so shook Lyndon B. Johnson in the Democratic primary that he helped chase the incumbent president from the race, and became the first in a long parade of figures who journeyed here to upend the political status quo.

This year, in Kerry and Edwards, New Hampshire voters have been presented two traditional, and increasingly skilled, presidential campaigns. Neither man is promising to overthrow his party's establishment, or fundamentally challenge the prevailing customs about how presidential campaigns are waged and won. The same is true of another major candidate, Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.), whose campaign has yet to exhibit signs of strength.

By contrast, in Clark and Dean, voters see two political exotics -- both basing their candidacies on the premise that a new formula is needed if Democrats are to beat President Bush this fall. Clark, a political novice who settled on his party affiliation only last year, defies convention almost by virtue of his résumé alone. Dean, meanwhile, placed his hopes in a grass-roots revival, roused by a china-rattling message that denounces not just Bush but also the "establishment special interests" and "Washington politicians" of both parties.

These are precisely the sort of novel candidacies for which New Hampshire has long shown special sympathy -- and indeed both men were prospering here until recently. Scala said the recent polling suggests that the mantra of the Kerry campaign -- "dated Dean, married Kerry" -- may well accurately describe this year's voters, but he does not discount still another lurch of momentum in the last hours by voters who are famously resistant to established wisdom.

Such a late lurch would raise anew the question of whether New Hampshire voters are -- as they like to think of themselves -- shrewd, discerning customers who won't be corralled into a premature choice, or whether they are fashion-followers who move with each new gust of "momentum." These voters, after all, had seemingly rejected Kerry, according to last year's polls, until Iowa caucusgoers served notice that he was back in vogue.

Defending her state's special status in previewing presidents, former New Hampshire governor Jeanne Shaheen said, "The issue is not about defying conventional wisdom; It's about looking beyond conventional wisdom."

"In New Hampshire we really get to know the candidates well and see beyond what the political pundits and media say about them," Shaheen said, adding that voters now apparently regard Kerry as the Democrat who would be most competitive against Bush.

This question of electability -- who can beat Bush? -- may be one factor tilting Democrats here toward a more conventional candidate, some strategists believe. New Hampshire Democrats harbor more negative feelings toward Bush than primary voters in other states and are also considerably better informed about their choices among the Democratic field, a recent survey by the University of Pennsylvania's National Annenberg Election Survey found.

Shaheen entered politics as a backer of one of the Democrats' most successful insurgent candidates ever: Jimmy Carter in 1976. That was the year the then-obscure Georgian vaulted from his victory in the previously little-noticed Iowa caucuses into a victory in New Hampshire -- trouncing better-known and more establishment politicians such as Sen. Henry Jackson and Rep. Morris Udall. This year she is backing Kerry.

The Carter experience underscores an important point. New Hampshire may be sympathetic to unconventional candidacies, but the American political system as a whole is not. Carter was the last of these politicians to win a nomination by leaping over the party establishment, and the only one to become president. Before that, George McGovern won the Democratic nomination over the more establishment campaigns of Edmund Muskie and others with a grass-roots-driven, antiwar campaign.

Otherwise, the history of recent decades echoes with a recurring pattern: Unconventional campaigns stir excitement and draw huge publicity, but eventually yield to more conventional and establishment-backed candidates as the race moves across the country.

That is what happened with Democrats in 1968, when McCarthy drew huge notice by nearly beating Johnson in New Hampshire, but the nomination eventually went to Vice President Hubert Humphrey. In 1980, the audacious challenge by Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (Mass.) to Carter, his party's incumbent president, faltered. That's also what happened in 1984, when Mondale survived -- though barely -- his New Hampshire shock to defeat Hart, who had run a campaign promising to infuse the party with new ideas and free it from the grip of special interests. On the Republican side, Ronald Reagan could not win his party's nomination as a grass-roots insurgent against incumbent Gerald Ford in 1976, though by 1980 his brand of conservatism had taken over the party, and his backers were the new establishment.

Patrick Buchanan's bracing New Hampshire challenges to George H.W. Bush in 1992 and to Robert J. Dole in 1996 soon faded. So did Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) after his boisterous and successful campaign against George W. Bush in New Hampshire in 2000. Only in 1988 did neither party feature some version of the classic choice between message-sending novelty or reassuring convention in New Hampshire (and even then, on the Democratic side, Jesse L. Jackson emerged as a powerful force after New Hampshire, with whom nominee Michael S. Dukakis needed to reconcile).

History is clear: American politics has an overwhelming bias in favor of conventional politics. Patrick Caddell, a pollster who was a chief strategist behind the insurgent efforts of McGovern, Carter and Hart, says this is no accident. Changes in nomination rules -- compressing the primary calendar to ensure an earlier nominee, and rules allowing "super-delegates" from among the party's elected leaders -- were all "designed to make sure you have an establishment candidate." In 1976, he noted, only a quarter of the delegates had been selected by the end of March. This year, Democratic National Committee Chairman Terence McAuliffe is planning a "unity dinner" for the party's nominee on March 25.

Thomas Mann, a political analyst at the Brookings Institution, said if Dean continues his Iowa fade, and Kerry continues his strong performance, what happens this year may amount to a speeding up of the traditional process by which novel candidacies rise up only to be beaten back by convention. This may only be natural, since traditional candidates usually get where they are in politics by being very good at it. "Rookie mistakes get punished very badly" at the presidential level, he noted, as Dean's faltering Iowa performance and his controversial speech in Des Moines the night of the caucuses illustrate. "There's something to be said for some experience in national politics, and having won elections in large states in difficult circumstances."


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...-2004Jan25.html

Interesting article, with the references to the past. I belive it to be a good read. *thumbs up*

Edwards seems to be a good speaker, but lacks enough education and backround on certain topics. I detest his elusion of answering certain questions with vague answers. It reminds me too much of Dean.

Dean, I feel has kicked hiself out of the running (one can only hope at this point ) with his atrociites and um... "emotional" speeches...

Kerry I belive would be a good VP.

Though, it's really beginning to look like America might be swayed into re electing Bush...

Alas, we still have a little over ten months to go until the elections, so much can happen until then.

I'm still going with Clark.


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Old Post Jan-26-2004 05:25  Poland
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DaveSZ
When The Levee Breaks



Registered: Jan 2003
Location: ATX

I keep going back and forth between Kerry, Clark, and Edwards. I would vote for any of those three, and Allah help us all if Dean gets the nomination. He's not a bad dude, it's just he's not cut out to face Bush.


Clark keeps making small mistakes because of his lack of political experience that are costing him some support. Plus Kerry is also a war hero and taking some of the spotlight from Clark in that regard.

The only thing I fault with Edwards is his vagueness. His uplifting folksy way of speaking really appeals to me though. I've looked at his senate voting record however, and I'm pretty satisfied.

Ideologically I'm closest to Kerry.

In Iowa he carried the veteran's vote, elderly vote, women's vote, minority vote, and was one percentage point behind Dean for the youth vote. He has very broad appeal, and his irresistible "real deal" slogan is suggestive of FDR's legacy.

So right now I think my favorite is Kerry. The only problem with Kerry is his home state and geographic location. I wish he were from a state like Florida. :/

Some key states we must win besides the usual democrat states are:

Florida, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Ohio, West Virginia, New Hampshire.


Whatever happens in November I'll always be an American no matter what, and we'll still get through Bush's draft, more of his wars, his abstinence only sex education that's worsening the AIDS epidemic, his multiple violations of the separation of church and state, his supreme court nominees overturning Roe vs. Wade and civil rights legislation...

But we don't have to go through all that, because we have the choice in our hands. I actually can't recall being this worried about my country ever.

But we must fight or we have no right to complain about the state of things. I intend to fight.


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Old Post Jan-26-2004 07:08 
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DaveSZ
When The Levee Breaks



Registered: Jan 2003
Location: ATX

The reason why I like Kerry over the other guys is because of his energy plan.

John Kerry's energy plan is visionary, and it's going to reduce our dependence on Mideast oil while creating many new jobs to replace the ones that Bush has lost at the same time:

http://www.johnkerry.com/issues/energy/plan.html

quote:

Energy Plan
Making the United States a Safer, Cleaner and Stronger Nation
Creates 500,000 New Jobs Over the Next Decade and Provides Assistance to Assure American Industries Will Lead the New Energy Economy.

John Kerry has outlined an energy plan that will reduce our dependence on Mideast oil, assure that American industries and ingenuity will lead the new energy economy, and protect our environment. Americans spend more than $20 billion each year on oil from the Persian Gulf -- often from nations that are unstable and hostile to our interests and our values. Kerry believes that we must end this dangerous dependence because it leaves American security and the American economy vulnerable. Kerry’s plan will reduce oil dependence by two million barrels of oil a day, as much as we currently import from the Middle East.




This is a very important front on the "war on terror." Much of our money that we spend on Mid East oil makes its way into terrorist hands.

I worry about getting this through the House, but I think we can get it done. We have to because our country only has 2 percent of the remaining reserves of oil in the world, our cities are choked with air pollution from automobiles, and no young American should have to die in the Iraqi desert for our dependence on Mid East oil. We have to move on to Hydrogen, because the only combustion product is pure water.


The world's remaining oil reserves will also only last a few hundred more years at current consumption levels.


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Last edited by DaveSZ on Jan-26-2004 at 07:23

Old Post Jan-26-2004 07:18 
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occrider
Traveladdict



Registered: Oct 2000
Location: New York

Well, over the weekend I heard a full version of a townhall speech kerry was giving over c-span radio (I was sitting in a car for 2.5 hours with nothing better to do) and I have to say that I like much of what he had to say. I can't really remember the specifics because I proceeded to get piss drunk that night but I distinctly remembered that I liked a lot of what he had to say. He responded to questions honestly and gave good responses ... much better than clark in N.H. At this point, I think that Kerry would make an excellent prez as well. I haven't really looked into edwards all that much but for now, I wouldn't mind clark or kerry.


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Old Post Jan-26-2004 17:12  United States
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MisterOpus1
Grumpy Old Fart



Registered: Dec 2001
Location: Kansas City

quote:
Originally posted by occrider
Well, over the weekend I heard a full version of a townhall speech kerry was giving over c-span radio (I was sitting in a car for 2.5 hours with nothing better to do) and I have to say that I like much of what he had to say. I can't really remember the specifics because I proceeded to get piss drunk that night but I distinctly remembered that I liked a lot of what he had to say. He responded to questions honestly and gave good responses ... much better than clark in N.H. At this point, I think that Kerry would make an excellent prez as well. I haven't really looked into edwards all that much but for now, I wouldn't mind clark or kerry.


Plus Kerry's got great hair!

I honestly saw a 5-min. blip on CNN about candidates' hair yesterday. I didn't know whether to laugh or be disheartened at the crap they were covering.


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Old Post Jan-26-2004 17:50  United States
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occrider
Traveladdict



Registered: Oct 2000
Location: New York

quote:
Originally posted by MisterOpus1
Plus Kerry's got great hair!

I honestly saw a 5-min. blip on CNN about candidates' hair yesterday. I didn't know whether to laugh or be disheartened at the crap they were covering.


I think it's very important for voters to see whether a person's hair is "presidential" enough. How can you fight a war against terror if you have crappy hair???


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Old Post Jan-26-2004 18:44  United States
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LiquidX
It's All OvA!



Registered: Mar 2001
Location: In Ur Mind

quote:
Originally posted by occrider
Well, over the weekend I heard a full version of a townhall speech kerry was giving over c-span radio (I was sitting in a car for 2.5 hours with nothing better to do) and I have to say that I like much of what he had to say. I can't really remember the specifics because I proceeded to get piss drunk that night but I distinctly remembered that I liked a lot of what he had to say. He responded to questions honestly and gave good responses ... much better than clark in N.H. At this point, I think that Kerry would make an excellent prez as well. I haven't really looked into edwards all that much but for now, I wouldn't mind clark or kerry.


what were you doing sitting on your car for 2.5 hours?


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Old Post Jan-26-2004 20:53  Chile
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occrider
Traveladdict



Registered: Oct 2000
Location: New York

quote:
Originally posted by LiquidX
what were you doing sitting on your car for 2.5 hours?


Driving to Philadelphia after forgetting my cd's at home.


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Old Post Jan-26-2004 21:08  United States
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PhloTron
EJECT EJECT EJECT !!!



Registered: Jun 2002
Location: Isle of Spam

quote:
Originally posted by occrider
I think it's very important for voters to see whether a person's hair is "presidential" enough. How can you fight a war against terror if you have crappy hair???



Hair...yes...but did you see him play hockey...

Any politician that can play hockey would get my vote ...

that's a very important issue for me....if I ever decided to vote


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Old Post Jan-26-2004 21:10  United States
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squirrelly
The Phun Nun



Registered: Oct 2003
Location: In the Shower

I've been looking into Kerry a bit and am curious about him enough to reconsider my position on him. However, I have this impression of him that I can't seem to shake... *frowns* Maybe my opinion will change for the better.

Occ- I for some reason imagine you as very entertaining when you're piss drunk.

How about all the PF addicts get drunk together and scream at each other about our situations on various issues? omg that just calls for disaster of some sort!


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Old Post Jan-27-2004 03:35  Poland
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imokruok
Lawyers, guns, and money



Registered: Aug 2003
Location: Los Angeles, CA / Milwaukee, WI

Here's an interesting piece of info. It just turned 12:00am in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire. Since it's technically election day, they always hold their primary right away.

There are no registered Democrats in Dixville Notch. They're all Republicans or independents.

Here are the results:

Democratic Primary:
Clark - 8 votes
Kerry - 3 votes
Edwards - 2 votes
Dean - 1 vote

Republican Primary:
Bush - 11 votes

Old Post Jan-27-2004 05:22  United States
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squirrelly
The Phun Nun



Registered: Oct 2003
Location: In the Shower

Another update:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...-2004Jan26.html

quote:

In New Hampshire, A Testy Primary Eve
Crossfire Marks Last Day of Campaigning
By John F. Harris
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, January 27, 2004; Page A01


MANCHESTER, N.H., Jan. 26 -- On the threshold of the nation's first primary, the Democratic presidential candidates raced across the frigid New Hampshire landscape Monday, offering closing arguments to large and attentive crowds and undermining their rivals with barbed exchanges on issues from abortion rights to the Iraq war.



Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), who is hoping to match his come-from-behind victory last week in the Iowa caucuses with a stay-on-top victory Tuesday, ignited one of several closing-hour skirmishes Monday morning with his assertion that he is "the only candidate running for president who has not played games, fudged around" on the issue of abortion rights.

"I laughed when I heard that," scoffed former Vermont governor Howard Dean. In a television interview, Dean said Kerry has equivocated and "couldn't give a straight answer" on the issue of parental notification when minors seek abortions.


Okay, I have to stop the quote here, because I literally laughed out loud, so hard that I woke my dog.

quote:
That snappish exchange between the front-runner and the man who polls indicate is most closely on his heels was typical of the crossfire for all the candidates in a crowded field that is likely to become less so soon after Granite State voters weigh in. They all faced the same delicate assignment -- to draw meaningful contrasts with rivals without crossing the line into personal invective of the kind Democratic voters have shown little appetite for this year, and which could easily damage the accuser as much as the accused.

Dean repeated his refrain that he has been the most consistent in his opposition to the Iraq war, emphasizing that Kerry in particular had held an erratic trail of positions that included an October 2002 vote authorizing Bush's use of force. Other candidates, including retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark and Sen. John Edwards (N.C.), emphasized their humble personal origins.

"Unlike all the rest of the people in this race, I did grow up poor," Clark told voters at a diner in Keene. "I didn't go to Yale. My parents couldn't have afforded to send me there."

Kerry, Dean and Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.) all attended Yale. Clark, who as a young man won a commission to West Point, later amended his comment after reporters noted that Edwards, too, grew up amid modest circumstances.

For his part, Edwards offered his version of an outsider's message. Appealing for change in Washington, the first-term senator asked, "Do you believe somebody that's been in politics all of their life, or in Washington for decades, will bring that change?"

New Hampshire voting officials have forecast that Tuesday's voting may well bring record turnout for a Democratic primary, surpassing the 162,000 total in 1992. Most of the candidates were playing to packed houses, with the crowds liberally sprinkled with voters who say they have yet to make up their minds. Veteran observers here say this reflects the zeal with which Democratic voters are searching for the candidate best poised to defeat President Bush. It also reflects the natural interest generated by an old-fashioned political drama, playing out in a state small enough that the candidates can be seen in the flesh by anyone with interest, and not simply as television images.

While the final hours seemed to suggest a clear pattern -- Kerry plainly ahead, according to various tracking polls, with Dean behind by totals that varied among different surveys, and a fight for third -- it was hard to put faith in appearances. This is especially true given New Hampshire's historically volatile electorate, prone to dramatic shifts of opinion in the final hours. Moreover, almost half of Tuesday's Democratic primary voters are likely to be independents, according to the University of Pennsylvania's National Annenberg Election Survey. The recent poll found that the vast majority of these independents share the liberal tilt of the registered Democrats on such issues as tolerance for gays and opposition to the Iraq war, although about 50 percent of the likely independent voters have a favorable view of Bush, while this is true of only a third of the Democrats.

After days of furious campaigning here -- a culmination of nearly two years of visits for many of the contenders -- several of the candidates were looking bleary-eyed as they sprinted through schedules that typically included a half-dozen stops each. Clark was ending the day at midnight in the small town of Dixville Notch, just as its residents were to cast the first votes in the primary.

Monday evening at the Derry Town Hall, Kerry was joined by his two daughters, and greeted the crowd with both fists pumping in the air. "I'm counting on New Hampshire," he roared. "I'm counting on your independence. I'm counting that you really want to live free or die."

"It's close and it's closing fast," Dean repeated at rallies during the day. "I need your help because we have every intention of winning the New Hampshire primary."

He appeared with his wife, Judy Steinberg Dean, at most stops Monday. Though Dean's spouse, a physician, had been reluctant previously to join the campaign trail, the candidate said she called her scheduled patients over the weekend to ask whether they would mind rescheduling.

A generally upbeat day had a persistently testy undertone. After the day's exchanges over abortion rights and Iraq, Kerry's campaign released a statement saying, "Howard Dean is ending this New Hampshire campaign the same way he started it, by angrily tearing down his opponents rather than offering any positive vision of his own. . . . The American people deserve leadership that offers a steady hand, not a clenched fist."

Dean, meanwhile, vented his grievances about campaign tactics. At an appearance in Nashua, and later riding the bus with reporters, he cried "dirty tricks," but did not specify what was being done or which campaign he thought was responsible. Later in the afternoon, campaign aides distributed documents alleging that voters had received harassing phone calls, phony e-mails and faxes that purported to be from the Dean campaign, but contained bigoted or offensive language. "The American people don't approve of that kind of stuff and will respond accordingly," Dean said.

No matter if Kerry retains his lead, questions remain: Does Dean perform credibly enough to demonstrate that he has halted the slide that produced his distant third-place finish in Iowa? Who wins the battle for third place, apparently a battle between Clark and Edwards, both of whom would be facing serious questions about their long-term viability with a fourth-place finish. Lieberman, who like Clark did not compete in Iowa, is registering fourth or fifth in most polls here and is already facing versions of these questions.

Come what may, Lieberman said, he planned to continue his campaign beyond Tuesday: "I've got a plane waiting for me in Manchester, and I'm going to Delaware, South Carolina and Arizona." His mood was sunny, even though his crowds were a fraction of those greeting most of the other major candidates, as he campaigned with his wife, Hadassah, and daughter, Rebecca. He predicted that his appeal with conservative Democrats and independents would yield him a result "better than expected."

Edwards, though his crowds were large and enthusiastic, may be hard-pressed in New Hampshire to replicate the late surge that gave him a strong second-place finish in Iowa, according to various polls. "It's harder to tell here, but . . . it feels very similar to what it felt like in Iowa," he told reporters after a morning drop-by with diners at Mary Ann's restaurant in Derry. "On the ground it feels similar, but it's harder to tell because there's a bigger field here and the polls are kind of all over the place," he said.

Many voters and pundits in New Hampshire have begun to talk about a Kerry-Edwards ticket, but the North Carolina senator said he was not interested in the number two spot on the Democratic ticket. "I'm not interested in being vice president," he said, then asked, "Did they tell you whether Kerry wants to be vice president?"

Staff writers Jonathan Finer, Ceci Connolly, Paul Farhi, Vanessa Williams and Paul Schwartzman contributed to this report.


Clark and Edwards seem to be battling back and forth to connect with the "people" of the United States. I'm getting the distinct impression of a battle to prove who was more unfortunate during their lives. Don't get me wrong, I like Clark, but this is getting a bit irritating.

I sincerely hope that Dean is forced to resign from campaigning after N.H.

I'm starting to flip between Kerry and Clark.


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Old Post Jan-27-2004 06:57  Poland
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