http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2004/01/26/006.html

Interesting observation on the role of Russia and where it would stand with a diminished U.S. role in the global arena. Very insightful and worth reading the entire piece to formulate a P.O.V.

"Despite all of Russia's current problems, many Russian officials and commentators express enormous confidence that their country will once again be a great power. Bolstering this confidence is the observation that since the country has previously been able to survive periods of extreme weakness and (like the proverbial phoenix) risen from the ashes to become stronger than before, it can -- and will -- do so again now. But there is strong reason to doubt the country's ability to pull this feat off.

Three of the most striking occasions when the country appeared to be on the verge of collapse, but then went on to reassert itself as a great power, occurred during the Napoleonic Wars, World War I and World War II. In each of these cases, Russia benefited from the facts that the principal opponent (France in the first case, Germany in the second two) had overextended itself, and that there were many other nations working to defeat it.

Many Russians who see the United States as Moscow's principal opponent now draw an analogy between these previous events and the present. While Russia was greatly weakened by the collapse both of communism and the Soviet Union, the United States is now overextending itself in Afghanistan and Iraq. Further, Russians see that many other countries are working to end "American hegemony."

This analogy, however, is a false one. To begin with, it is not at all clear that the United States is overextending itself. The Bush administration's military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq are hardly the equivalent to Napoleon's, Kaiser Wilhelm's and Hitler's attempts to conquer all Europe and more.

But even if the United States is overextending itself and ends up withdrawing from Afghanistan and Iraq as well as retreating from the role of sole superpower, it is not at all clear that this will benefit Russia. Russia's previous transformations from near-collapse to resurrection as a great power were greatly facilitated by its neighbors in Europe, the Muslim world and China all simultaneously being weak as a result of war or some other factor.

This is certainly not the case now. Europe is strong and united. China is also strong, and getting stronger. And while the Muslim world may not be strong, it is certainly reasserting itself. Even if U.S. power does decline, opportunities for Russia to assert its influence in Europe, China or even the Muslim world simply will not be present, as they were in the past.

Many Russians, though, are focused on reasserting Moscow's influence in the non-Russian republics of the former Soviet Union. They bitterly resent the unprecedented U.S. military presence in the Caucasus and Central Asia. An American withdrawal from these regions, however, would not benefit Russia. Moscow's failure to defeat the Chechen rebels after many years of trying suggests that it would also be unable to contain resurgent Islamic fundamentalism in the Caucasus and Central Asia by itself. Indeed, it is not clear that this could be done even with a U.S. presence there.

Similarly, Russia by itself could hardly hope to contain growing Chinese power in the Far East. And given the likely continuation of European distaste for intervention or confrontation, it is doubtful that Russia can count on its new allies there for much support vis-a-vis a resurgent China, the Muslim threat from the south or both.

Instead of resulting in Russia once again becoming a great power, a decline in American willingness or ability to act as a superpower will only result in Russia becoming even weaker. For if the United States can't or won't help Russia against the most likely threats Moscow faces, it is doubtful that Europe or anybody else will be willing or able to do so, either. The choice Russia now faces is either to be a junior partner of the United States, or a weak, isolated power facing threats it cannot deal with on its own. The Russian phoenix won't rise again this time."

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i really agree with this author, i was thinking of every counter point right before he brought it up. the conclusion says it best, for russia to regain its past glory it has to ally itself with the US. strong economic ties and a shared geo-political vision will aid both sides mutually.

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Umm i was going to reply because i thot i had something to say.

But this article is by an American, and makes no real points i would argue against. Plus it really says nothing new anyhow|

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quote:

Originally posted by Izzy i really agree with this author, i was thinking of every counter point right before he brought it up. the conclusion says it best, for russia to regain its past glory it has to ally itself with the US. strong economic ties and a shared geo-political vision will aid both sides mutually.

In all likelihood Russia will align itself more Eurocentrically, or if history is any indication - towards China. But then again Sino-Russian relations have never been consistently stable either|

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quote:

Originally posted by biznology In all likelihood Russia will align itself more Eurocentrically, or if history is any indication - towards China. But then again Sino-Russian relations have never been consistently stable either|

i agree with you, russia is going to end up going Eurocentrically. i think the past few years have show this.

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I believe that Russia has little choice in geopolitics but to align with Europe as time progresses otherwise they are going to be isolated, surrounded by NATO, China, E.U. and a bunch of former Soviet States that are not all welcoming to Russia's sphere of influence position, and did I mention all those Islamic republics within Russia that cannot be quelled. If Chechnya does go which I feel Russia will have to allow at some point to integrate with Europe then more Chechnya's will appear, as was the case with Dagasten( of course these autonomous republics have always resented living under a Russian flag for centuries) Whew sux to be a Russian troop in the Caucasus today.

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Russia won't be going anywhere for awhile and would be more fearful of China. A billion plus people at very low labor prices equals inexpensive military equipment and research. It's okay though we just bought new IBM setups to research new nukes

classical geopolitics (ok its still "relatively" new science) have always feared a German and Russian alliance. An alliance that would be unbeatable (ingeneering + unlmtd resources).

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Russia my favourite country.

I doubt that Russia will become the dominant world power anytime soon and I also doubt that it will become Eurocentric. Russia has never truly been a European power.

Russia has been a Russia centric power caused by its geography. Its vast open terrain has led it to be extremely paranoid and at times militaristic. History endlessly repeats itself, Russia swallows up its neighbours to remove them as a threat or its neighbours attack it. This has always ensured that Russia has been militaristic leading it to being backwards in non-military technology and social developments. For instance in the Soviet Union period it had advanced space exploration, deadly fighter planes, nuclear submarines and all the rest and people queing for food, and using buses and carsfrom the nineteen fifties. Spending money on weapons not people is a doomed strategy and the USA will end up the same way as the Soviet Union -Bankrupt.

Russias geography has also led to extreme paranoia about all things different/non Russian most notably the Jewish people and an extreme reluctance to take up new ideas until it is too late to implement new ideas gradually and has to undertake crash courses of reform such as what happened after the Soviet Union with predictable results. Mass social upheval leading to ordinary people being convinced all along that they were right, foreign ideas are wrong.

Russia has many problems

1) neighbours who are potentially a grave threat to its internal security which will require large amounts of money to stop. For the most part the rulers of the post Soviet Union countries are the same people/clique who ruled it before hand but inevitably they will be replaced by Islamic-fascist style regimes.

2) a declining population. Russians dont have many children and those that do often leave Russia to find opportunity elsewhere. Declining populations are the biggest threat to economic growth which Europe and Japan are already finding out. Russia now is looking for migrants to live their but its traditional distrust of foreigners will make this difficult.

3) the oil curse. Most countries with vast abundances of oil have vast masses of poor people. They shouldnt but when Oil is a major export item it leads to an overvalued domestic currency which makes it easier to import goods than to build them domestically. No manufacturing industry leads to lots of people with no opportunities. As oil is a capital not labour intensive industry it leads to strong concentrations of power at the top and a weak middle class. Hopefully Russia will avoid this problem and seems to have taken steps in this direction by taking a greater control of the oil industry. The arrest of Khordokovsky (a very rich oligarch) is a very good start. The new Russian billionares are utterly detested by the common people who see them for the thieves that they are.

4) no history of being a customer service culture, nobody smiles and workers often have little or no commitment to their customers or employer, a hold over from the communist days where the perception was "they pretent to pay us, we pretend to work"

5) laws which stifle economic development, such as prohibitions on foreigners owning Russian land, an ineffective legal system which makes foreign investors wary that they wont get cheated or even robbed by their Russian business partners. Either the President will use his absolute power to push through these essential reforms or the country will just go backwards as it needs foreign money to repairs its broken down infrastructure

I see where this is going, and I well aware of the situation and I agree that Russia won't be a World Power anytime soon. Though it is a strong power, and getting better, both economically and politically, corruption and economy continues to keep the country down. There's so much potential, so many reserves, ... yet wrong people do always the wrong things. However, it's been prophecized by several well-known medieval future-tellers (Nostradamus - one of them) that Russia will have 3 major rises and falls, and I think they have one more left. Russia had a great position on the world stage, best one ever, about 100 years ago, and if the czar was not dumb and selfish, I am pretty sure that the russian rouble would still be the second highest currency in the world (in 1901, 2 Russian rouble were worth about 1 British pound, second strongest currency in the world at that time). Wars and communism have really sucked a lot out of that country. Dont forget - just in World War 2 alone Soviet Union lost 7 million troops and another 25 million civilians. After World War 1, when Revolution began in Czarist Russia, 5 million peasants starved to death ... another 15 million died fighting, and another million or two intellectuals left the country ... all of this does not include the purges. A country of 80 million people 100 years ago is only 145 million today? Thats pretty bad. Also its almost twice smaller in size, though still the largest ... etc etc etc


Oh, as for the war in Chechnya - it's been going on there since 1815, after czarist armies defeated Napoleon, they continued on their expansion in southern caucasus and central asia. Chechens were defeated, but they THEN began stealing people for slaves and ransom ... attacking troops /// In WW2, they went on the German side, but Stalin killed and exiled hundreds of thousands of Chechens in process to central asia. In the early 90s, now that they have access to better weapons and have MUCH better training that Russian troops, that war will continue for another hundred or so years .... but now there's no KGB to infiltrate and minimize their rebellion forces ... etc

rambling .. I can talk about this forever, but enough is enough.

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quote:

Originally posted by Magnetonium I see where this is going, and I well aware of the situation and I agree that Russia won't be a World Power anytime soon. Though it is a strong power, and getting better, both economically and politically, corruption and economy continues to keep the country down. There's so much potential, so many reserves, ... yet wrong people do always the wrong things. However, it's been prophecized by several well-known medieval future-tellers (Nostradamus - one of them) that Russia will have 3 major rises and falls, and I think they have one more left. Russia had a great position on the world stage, best one ever, about 100 years ago, and if the czar was not dumb and selfish, I am pretty sure that the russian rouble would still be the second highest currency in the world (in 1901, 2 Russian rouble were worth about 1 British pound, second strongest currency in the world at that time). Wars and communism have really sucked a lot out of that country. Dont forget - just in World War 2 alone Soviet Union lost 7 million troops and another 25 million civilians. After World War 1, when Revolution began in Czarist Russia, 5 million peasants starved to death ... another 15 million died fighting, and another million or two intellectuals left the country ... all of this does not include the purges. A country of 80 million people 100 years ago is only 145 million today? Thats pretty bad. Also its almost twice smaller in size, though still the largest ... etc etc etc Oh, as for the war in Chechnya - it's been going on there since 1815, after czarist armies defeated Napoleon, they continued on their expansion in southern caucasus and central asia. Chechens were defeated, but they THEN began stealing people for slaves and ransom ... attacking troops /// In WW2, they went on the German side, but Stalin killed and exiled hundreds of thousands of Chechens in process to central asia. In the early 90s, now that they have access to better weapons and have MUCH better training that Russian troops, that war will continue for another hundred or so years .... but now there's no KGB to infiltrate and minimize their rebellion forces ... etc rambling .. I can talk about this forever, but enough is enough.

Interesting to get the perspective from a Russian, moreover what is the general concensus of the Russian people about the Chechen war. I know in Russia the Chechens are often termed bandits, of course it runs deeper than that. Do Russians believe that the conflict that seems to have no end in sight is worthwhile. Most of the troops who go to fight are not from the major Russian cities such as Moscow, St.Petersburg, so I've heard but the smaller cities and villages throughout the vast terrain of Russia.

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Russia won't be coming to world power any time soon. After the Cold War, many countries have taken precautions towards Russia, considering how it originally sided with Germany in WWII, but that was the rest of the worlds fault for pushing them in that direction by denying them alligence. As grand of a country as it is, too many countries would form alliances against them if they made any sort of military strategy to expand once again in Europe.

quote:

Most of the troops who go to fight are not from the major Russian cities such as Moscow, St.Petersburg, so I've heard but the smaller cities and villages throughout the vast terrain of Russia.

Just the same as you don't see many Troops from New York City or Boston or Los Angeles for example. Many people that enlist into the army are usually from the smaller areas of any country.

quote:

classical geopolitics (ok its still "relatively" new science) have always feared a German and Russian alliance. An alliance that would be unbeatable (ingeneering + unlmtd resources).

I doubt that would happen again. Russians look at history, and with the failure of an allegiance in WWII, I highly doubt that they are going to trust any Germans for an alliance.

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