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MisterOpus1
Grumpy Old Fart

Registered: Dec 2001
Location: Kansas City
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I know it's fun to pat yourself on the back 1 week after your party's convention. Heck, I did it myself back in early August.
But the road is long, and as I've said over and over, nothing is really statistically significant by these polls until the final coupla weeks.
Here's an alternative perspective:
Three key points about the latest polling.
1. Polls that were taken after the GOP convention show either a Bush lead or a dead heat. Definitive assessments are not possible.
Here's how the race stands with registered voters ("likely voter" models are junk - http://www.emergingdemocraticmajori...ives/000635.php) in polls taken since Sept. 2.
Three polls are essentially a tie:
CNN-USA Today-Gallup
Bush 49
Kerry 48
Fox News
Bush 47
Kerry 45
The Economist (via Political Wire)
Bush 46
Kerry 45
(Note: Fox is only polling so-called "likely voters", not "registered voters")
Two polls (the ones you probably heard about) have Bush with relatively sizeable leads:
ABC-W. Post
Bush 50
Kerry 44
CBS
Bush 49
Kerry 42
Also, the Rasmussen daily tracking poll shows a tie (Bush 47.5 - Kerry 46.8) as of this writing.
(Keep in mind that tracking polls are meant to gauge movement, not provide accurate snapshots of support. The movement is slightly in Kerry's direction since the convention.)
Now overall, this is a shift to Bush from where the polls were in early August, when almost every poll had a Kerry lead.
But one can't accurately say Bush has a clear lead when most polls show a tie.
2. Kerry does better in the battleground.
The Gallup poll, which shows a 1 pt Bush lead nationally, has Kerry up 5 pts (50-45) in the battleground states, according to Donkey Rising.
http://www.emergingdemocraticmajori...ives/000642.php
W. Post says in "19 battleground states…the two candidates are running even," while Bush has a 6 pt lead nationally.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...0-2004Sep9.html
In both cases, Kerry performs better in the battleground than nationally.
Why might this be?
Perhaps the hard-right mega-negative convention played better in the Red states, widening Bush's lead in areas that won't matter on Election Day.
It also may mean that since Kerry's working local media markets hard in the battleground, he's getting fairer treatment there.
Similarly, it also may speak well to his ad campaign, which non-battleground voters don't see much of.
3. There's no getting around Kerry's negatives were raised by the GOP convention onslaught.
Even in the dead heat polls, Kerry lost ground in areas like leadership, personality, ability to fight terror, flip-flopping and favorability.
Of course, there's still conflicting data.
In the Gallup poll, Kerry's favorable-unfavorable rating is 53-43, down from 57-37 after the Dem convention.
Not good, but manageable (Bush is a similar 55-44).
The CBS poll, which appears not to have pushed undecideds to choose, has far worse data for Kerry: 32-41 (with Bush at 47-39).
Can a candidate win with unfavorables in the 40s?
Well, yes. Bill Clinton did in 1992.
Near the end of the race, his fav-unfav was similarly polarizing and conflicting: 51-45 (Gallup), 52-45 (LA Times) and 33-39 (CBS/NYT).
It's not that there was widespread love for Clinton, who was dogged with attacks on his "character" by Poppy Bush, and won with just 43%.
In fact, a late CNN/Time poll had vastly more people saying Poppy was more "honest and trustworthy" than Clinton.
But Poppy's fav-unfav was still worse than Clinton, with his unfavorables generally in the low 50s.
That's Kerry goal, to jack up Bush's negatives.
Like any Bush campaign, this race will be filled with muck, making it impossible to stay positive and generate warm feelings.
Kerry can't expect his unfavorable numbers to go back down to the 30s.
But with Bush probably at his high-water mark, just after his convention, Kerry should be able to get Bush's unfavorables higher than his.
This is not to say Kerry shouldn't try to talk himself up and articulate his compelling, alternative agenda.
It's always a balancing act: promoting yourself, tearing down the other guy.
And since Kerry can't single-handedly put this campaign on the high road, going after Bush is the bigger priority.
Source: liberaloasis.com (blog)
-AND-
| quote: | The tie in Colorado has been broken. Kerry is now ahead there (by 1%) for the first time, but it doesn't mean anything since it is well within the MoE. Still Colorado appears to be in play. It would be ironic if Kerry won Colorado and only got 5 votes in the electoral college due to the referendum the Democrats pushed. If you haven't followed the referendum story, type: referendum in the Google search box at the bottom of the page. This box can be used to search all pages on the site.
A new Survey USA poll ending Sept. 8 in Ohio, shows the race tightening there. Bush's 9% lead is now down to 3% there. He is now leading 50% to 47%. Bush's lead is also dropping in North Carolina (now 4%) and Virginia (now only 3%). Maybe the South will rise again (for Kerry, this time). At the very least, if Bush has to fight for some of the southern states, that will divert time and money from the Midwest.
One piece of good news for Bush comes from an unlikely state: New Jersey. Kerry's lead in New Jersey is falling precipitously. It is down to 4% now, 43% to 39%, with Nader at 5%. Of course, it remains to be seen whether Nader will really get 5% there, or anywhere.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/ |
___________________
Whence September dusk grows crisper still,
with leaves all crimson conquered,
I yearn to shout,
and dance about,
and stick pickles in my honker...
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Sep-10-2004 19:46
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speedracer_mec
DeepHouse & Progressive

Registered: Oct 2001
Location: Greece, where the good progressive comes from.
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| quote: | Originally posted by Shakka
D'oh!
Nice change of topic, Opus!
I agree, there's a long way to go. Kerry certainly is having his share of blowups recently. I'm sure Bush will have plenty more--it's all a question of timing in the end!
Thing is, Bush has never tried to run on his National Guard service and he's never made it an issue in his campaign. Kerry, on the other hand, has tried to make a 4 month stint in Vietnam the central focal point of his campaign and it is constantly blowing up in his face. If he actually had a record to run on from his senate service, he might be doing better.
I find it funny that a guy who had a film crew with him in Vietnam doesn't have any footage of the so called "Daily attrocities" that were committed by he and so many thousands of other soldiers who were over there.
Like I said, there's a long way to go in this election(Hell, the debates don't even start for a few weeks), but it looks like Kerry needs to do something to save his dwindling momentum. |
I say he is shooting himself in the foot with the memos scandal.
But more power to him.....
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Sep-10-2004 19:58
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Shakka
Supreme tranceaddict

Registered: Feb 2003
Location:
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The way I see it, Kerry was never the democratic nominee of choice. In the end, they had to settle on him. First it was Howard "Yeeeeaaahhhhh" Dean, who took care of himself. Then it was Wesley Clark who was a joke to begin with. Then it was Geppy, Leiberman, Sharpton, and the rest of the goofballs that nobody could take seriously. And then there was Kerry, who shrewdly kept his mouth shut and was the ugly-guy on stage during the primaries. Eventually, he was all that was left that could be taken semi-seriously(I mean Dennis Kucinich? C'mon!). In the end, Kerry was what the Democrats had to settle with and now it's funny to watch people rally around him simply because they don't like Bush. People are cheering Kerry like he's the 2nd coming of Christ, but in reality I bet there aren't that many people who know 2 shits about him. It's not like he's actually come out and said HOW he plans to accomplish anything. He's just made a bunch of pie-crust promises and gotten a bunch of loud mouths out there screaming his name. His initials are JFK! We must vote for him! He is the 2nd coming!!! Unless he can pull some serious repositioning, I think he might've peaked at the DNC. He's rapidly running out of legs to stand on.
Then again, the good stuff is just getting started. My popcorn is ready! This is what politics is all about. Fun ain't it!
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Sep-10-2004 20:06
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speedracer_mec
DeepHouse & Progressive

Registered: Oct 2001
Location: Greece, where the good progressive comes from.
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| quote: | Originally posted by Shakka
The way I see it, Kerry was never the democratic nominee of choice. In the end, they had to settle on him. First it was Howard "Yeeeeaaahhhhh" Dean, who took care of himself. Then it was Wesley Clark who was a joke to begin with. Then it was Geppy, Leiberman, Sharpton, and the rest of the goofballs that nobody could take seriously. And then there was Kerry, who shrewdly kept his mouth shut and was the ugly-guy on stage during the primaries. Eventually, he was all that was left that could be taken semi-seriously(I mean Dennis Kucinich? C'mon!). In the end, Kerry was what the Democrats had to settle with and now it's funny to watch people rally around him simply because they don't like Bush. People are cheering Kerry like he's the 2nd coming of Christ, but in reality I bet there aren't that many people who know 2 shits about him. It's not like he's actually come out and said HOW he plans to accomplish anything. He's just made a bunch of pie-crust promises and gotten a bunch of loud mouths out there screaming his name. His initials are JFK! We must vote for him! He is the 2nd coming!!! Unless he can pull some serious repositioning, I think he might've peaked at the DNC. He's rapidly running out of legs to stand on.
Then again, the good stuff is just getting started. My popcorn is ready! This is what politics is all about. Fun ain't it! |
You picked my brain and spilled my thoughts on here! I completely agree. Not to mention he is a very liberal candidate...unlike the moderate liberals. Looks like a divided party to me, and divided democrats have never won elections throughtout history.
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Sep-10-2004 20:10
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LiquidX
It's All OvA!

Registered: Mar 2001
Location: In Ur Mind
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I must make an Honorable mention Mec here.. Bush seems to be loosing ground in some of the Southeastern states.. such as Virginia, North Carolina.. and.. Ohia.. So I'll just pop your bubble here a bit.. as for New Jersey, yes it is true Kerry has lost ground there.. not the strong Blue.. but he still has the lead there non-theless..
but let me pop ur cherry first.
The tie in Colorado has been broken. Kerry is now ahead there (by 1%) for the first time, but it doesn't mean anything since it is well within the MoE. Still Colorado appears to be in play. It would be ironic if Kerry won Colorado and only got 5 votes in the electoral college due to the referendum the Democrats pushed. If you haven't followed the referendum story, type: referendum in the Google search box at the bottom of the page. This box can be used to search all pages on the site.
| quote: | A new Survey USA poll ending Sept. 8 in Ohio, shows the race tightening there. Bush's 9% lead is now down to 3% there. He is now leading 50% to 47%. Bush's lead is also dropping in North Carolina (now 4%) and Virginia (now only 3%). Maybe the South will rise again (for Kerry, this time). At the very least, if Bush has to fight for some of the southern states, that will divert time and money from the Midwest.
One piece of good news for Bush comes from an unlikely state: New Jersey. Kerry's lead in New Jersey is falling precipitously. It is down to 4% now, 43% to 39%, with Nader at 5%. Of course, it remains to be seen whether Nader will really get 5% there, or anywhere. |
Source.. www.electoral-vote.com..
Also, is somewhat important to mention that Kerry has a whopping lead in New Mexico, compared to Al Gore and Bush in 2000, and Nevada is currently tied .. compared to the 4 point lead Bush had there when he WON that state.. Also Coloardo, which has shifted to weak Kerry, compared to the almost whopping 10 point lead Bush had there in 2000, and in PA, Bush has a 1 point lead, virtually tied.. So I dont know where all the Euphoria and coughings for Kerry comments come from.. I could go on with Many states that BUSH should have had assured.. non-theless.. this election looks very rigid still, and as for the RNC effects, they are quickly fading away.
AS for Oregon, the latest poll Zogby & Riley has Kerry with a 5 point lead there .. as for sept.3.
___________________
Upcoming:
Michael Andrews Feat. Gary Jules - Mad World (Grayed Out Mix)
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Sep-10-2004 20:41
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speedracer_mec
DeepHouse & Progressive

Registered: Oct 2001
Location: Greece, where the good progressive comes from.
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Blank paper for the printer = 15 cents
Microsoft Word 2000 = $250
Computer and printer = $1000
Watching Dan Rather apololgize on national TV = Priceless
Oh, and CBS just keeps getting more and more owned on this..
| quote: | CBS has defended the authenticity of the Guard memos, which were supposedly produced by Lt. Col. Jerry Killian.
But one of Killian's fellow officers, an independent document examiner and Killian's own son doubted the veracity of the memos.
Gary Killian, who served in the Guard with his father and retired as a captain in 1991, said he doubted his father would have written an unsigned memo which said there was pressure to "sugar coat" Bush's performance review.
"It just wouldn't happen," he said. "No officer in his right mind would write a memo like that."
The personnel chief in Killian's unit at the time also said he believes the documents are fake.
"They looked to me like forgeries," said Rufus Martin. "I don't think Killian would do that, and I knew him for 17 years."
Killian died in 1984.
In a telephone interview from her Texas home, Killian's widow, Marjorie Connell, described the records to The Washington Post as "a farce," saying she was with her husband until the day he died in 1984 and that he did not "keep files." She said her husband considered Bush "an excellent pilot."
"I don't think there were any documents. He was not a paper person," she said, adding that she was "livid" at CBS journalists, who she said did not ask her to authenticate the records. |
Some places are reporting leaks from within CBS say that they had doubts about the documents but ran the story anyway.
But then again, those are "leaked" documents too.
Which leak to believe? Either? Both? Neither?
I am also hearing now that Dan Rathers Daughter is a BIG DEM fund raiser in TX with that Ben guy and that Dan Rather actually went down to a fundraiser down there to be the key speaker.
I heard that on the radio today. I am sure there will be news stories about later on.
Rather is toast. He should just resign now
here are the files
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/091004_bush_service.pdf
I commend ABC news on their efforts to refute CBS
I also think ABC is happy to lay a little "bitch slapping" on CBS and Dan Rather

Last edited by speedracer_mec on Sep-10-2004 at 22:54
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Sep-10-2004 22:43
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speedracer_mec
DeepHouse & Progressive

Registered: Oct 2001
Location: Greece, where the good progressive comes from.
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| quote: | Originally posted by LiquidX
I must make an Honorable mention Mec here.. Bush seems to be loosing ground in some of the Southeastern states.. such as Virginia, North Carolina.. and.. Ohia.. So I'll just pop your bubble here a bit.. as for New Jersey, yes it is true Kerry has lost ground there.. not the strong Blue.. but he still has the lead there non-theless..
but let me pop ur cherry first.
The tie in Colorado has been broken. Kerry is now ahead there (by 1%) for the first time, but it doesn't mean anything since it is well within the MoE. Still Colorado appears to be in play. It would be ironic if Kerry won Colorado and only got 5 votes in the electoral college due to the referendum the Democrats pushed. If you haven't followed the referendum story, type: referendum in the Google search box at the bottom of the page. This box can be used to search all pages on the site.
Source.. www.electoral-vote.com..
Also, is somewhat important to mention that Kerry has a whopping lead in New Mexico, compared to Al Gore and Bush in 2000, and Nevada is currently tied .. compared to the 4 point lead Bush had there when he WON that state.. Also Coloardo, which has shifted to weak Kerry, compared to the almost whopping 10 point lead Bush had there in 2000, and in PA, Bush has a 1 point lead, virtually tied.. So I dont know where all the Euphoria and coughings for Kerry comments come from.. I could go on with Many states that BUSH should have had assured.. non-theless.. this election looks very rigid still, and as for the RNC effects, they are quickly fading away.
AS for Oregon, the latest poll Zogby & Riley has Kerry with a 5 point lead there .. as for sept.3. |
This upcoming week should be interesting. 
Last edited by speedracer_mec on Sep-10-2004 at 22:55
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Sep-10-2004 22:46
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