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The State of the 2004 Euro Economy With Weekly Updates
I didn't go back to the beginning of the year as I did with the US ... too lazy for that. Should include some Aussie and Canuck data as well. I'm not sure how complete it is:
Week Ending Feb 15
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Belgium]: 11.1%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial activity unexpectedly rebounded in Belgium at the close of 2003, with a staggering year-over-year increase of 11.1%. In addition, the entire year’s estimates were revised upward as the overall index realized a 1.1% gain between 2002 and 2003.
RELEASE: GDP [Germany]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: GDP in Germany increased by 0.2% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter after adjusting for seasonal and calendar effects. Without adjusting for the calendar, GDP would have been flat. For all of 2003, Europe’s largest economy contracted by 0.1%.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [France]: 0.3%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in France rose a weaker than expected 0.3% in December. Further, the November decline was increased to 0.6%. Year-over-year growth did accelerate to 1.6%. Energy, capital goods, and consumer goods led the gains in December.
RELEASE: GDP [Netherlands]: -0.5%
FIRST TAKE: According to the fourth quarter GDP figures released today by Statistics Netherlands, GDP fell 0.8% in 2003, the first yearly decline since 1982. In the fourth quarter alone, GDP was up 0.3% from the third quarter, although it fell 0.5% from the fourth quarter in 2002. As was the case last quarter, government consumption was the strongest component of GDP, showing the largest increase on a yearly basis.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Netherlands]: -2.9%
FIRST TAKE: December’s industrial production numbers were released today by the Netherlands Statistics Office. On a year-ago basis, top line manufacturing output declined 2.9%. Industrial production is down 2.3% from November.
RELEASE: Employment Situation [United Kingdom]: 2.9 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The February U.K. labor market report was very strong. According to the Office of National Statistics, the U.K. claimant count unemployment rate fell to 2.9% in January from 3.0% during the previous month, as unemployment fell more than expected. Wage pressures are holding steady, which will allow the Bank of England to hold off on its next rate hike for a couple of months.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Sweden]: -2.0%
FIRST TAKE: Sweden’s industrial production slipped in December, falling 2.0% from the previous month. Moreover, activity on a year-to-year basis moved back into negative territory.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Turkey]: 21.1%
FIRST TAKE: Turkish industrial production growth jumped to 21.1% in December on a year-ago basis, up from 4.0% in November. On a monthly, nonseasonally adjusted basis, industrial production was up 12.4% from November.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [United Kingdom]: -0.1
FIRST TAKE: U.K. output data came in on the low side for the month of December. According to the Office for National Statistics, total U.K. production fell 0.1% during December from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis, which puts the year-ago growth rate at -0.8%. A rebound from the -0.9% monthly decline of November had been expected. Real manufacturing activity in the U.K. remains weak despite the improvement in business sentiment.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Hungary]: 12.5%
FIRST TAKE: The National Bank of Hungary left its two-week deposit rate unchanged at 12.5% today.
Week Ending Feb 8th
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Sweden]: 2.5%
FIRST TAKE: The Riksbank elected to cut the main repo rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% at its February monetary policy meeting.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Denmark]: -1.0%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production slid 2.5% in December. Down for the third month in a row, the index closed the year 1.0% lower than the previous December and at its lowest level since October 2001.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Norway]: -1.0%
FIRST TAKE: Norway’s weak recovery sputtered again during December. According to Statistics Norway, total industrial output decreased 1.4% during December from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis, after losing 1.0% month to month in November. The decline puts year-to-year growth at -1%. Most of the weakness was concentrated in oil and gas extraction, as well as mining and utilities output. Still, manufacturing production was also lower during the month. Despite the depreciated krone and firmer external environment, Norway is struggling to establish solid footing.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Germany]: 0.6%
FIRST TAKE: The recovery in Germany’s manufacturing industry remained on track in December. Industrial production increased by 0.6% in December compared to the previous month.
RELEASE: Labor Force Survey [Canada]: 7.4 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: After four consecutive months of strong growth, employment rose by a more modest 14,900 positions in January. This was somewhat below consensus expectations for a gain of 20,000 positions. Although growth did slow this month, the employment picture in Canada remains healthy.
RELEASE: Consumer Confidence [France] (-22)
FIRST TAKE: French consumer confidence improved to -22 in January from -25 in December. The survey underwent major revisions and comparable data are only available beginning last November.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Spain] (0.8%)
FIRST TAKE: December industrial production for the Spanish economy has improved modestly from one year ago. On the whole, however, the past year marked a notable increase for the nation’s production industries.
RELEASE: Employment Situation [Germany] (-81,000)
FIRST TAKE: The number of seasonally adjusted jobless fell by 81,000 in January compared to December. However, far from signaling a turnaround in Germany’s labor market, the number is due to changes in the methodology used to count the unemployed. Unemployment in Germany remains stubbornly high.
RELEASE: Retail Trade [Euro Zone] (-1.9)
FIRST TAKE: Euro-zone retail sales came in much worse than expected in November, plunging 1.9%. Notably, all countries reporting November data showed a monthly decline in sales.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [United Kingdom] (4.00%)
FIRST TAKE: The Bank of England acted to withdraw monetary stimulus today. At the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to raise its target for the repo rate—the central bank’s monetary policy instrument—by 25 basis points to 4.0%. The bank expects U.K. growth to be above trend over the medium term, which will push service inflation higher. The current action, then, is a preemptive move to drain liquidity from the economy.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Euro Zone] (2.00%)
FIRST TAKE: In a widely expected move, the ECB held monetary policy constant today. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided that the minimum bid rate on main refinancing operations (repo rate), the central bank’s main policy instrument, would be held constant at 2.0%. The euro-zone economy is slowly recovering, and inflation is trending at the central bank’s target ceiling. Monetary policy is unlikely to change anytime soon.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Australia] (No change)
FIRST TAKE: The RBA decided to take a breather in its push to return Australian rates to "a more neutral setting." The cash rate remained unchanged at 5.25%.
RELEASE: Reuters Euro-Zone Services PMI [Euro Zone] (57.3)
FIRST TAKE: Service activity in the euro zone picked up during January after moderating in December. According to the Reuters service-sector PMI report, the headline business service activity index decreased to 57.3 in January from 56.6 in December. Growth in new orders held roughly constant, although the pace of contraction in service-sector employment hastened from that seen in December. The service report is similar to the manufacturing PMI report in that activity is increasing, even though job creation is still scarce.
RELEASE: Reuters Euro-Zone Manufacturing PMI [Euro Zone] (52.5)
FIRST TAKE: The two-track recovery in manufacturing continues in the euro zone. According to the Reuters, PMI data for the month of January showed gains in output and new orders, though manufacturing employment continues to contract. The overall index improved to 52.5 from 52.4.
Week Ending Feb 1st
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Portugal] (2.1%)
FIRST TAKE: Production bounced back in Portugal during December, though not by much, and not where it counts. According to the National Institute of Statistics, the Portuguese statistical agency, total output increased by 0.9% during December from November on a seasonally adjusted basis, which puts the year-ago growth rate at 2%. Energy output accounted for a sizeable amount of the monthly gain. Production of capital equipment and industrial materials is still very weak, however.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Greece] (-0.4%)
FIRST TAKE: Aside from continued growth in energy output, industrial production is now falling in Greece. Manufacturing production during August was 5.3% lower than a year ago, with production levels down sharply for most basic materials.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Finland] (0.3%)
FIRST TAKE: Finnish industrial production edged up by 0.3% in December from the previous month due to gains in manufacturing and mining production. Finland’s economy is improving modestly.
RELEASE: Employment Situation [France] (9.7 % Unemployment)
FIRST TAKE: The French unemployment rate unexpectedly rose back to 9.7% in December as the number of unemployed rose 11,000, reversing most of the declines in the prior two months.
RELEASE: Balance of Payments [Euro Zone] (4.4 billion euros)
FIRST TAKE: The euro zone recorded a seasonally adjusted current account surplus of 1.7 billion euros in November, compared with a surplus of 8.0 billion euros last month, and 7.8 billion euros one year ago. The surpluses on goods and services both fell during the month, despite stronger growth in foreign markets. The euro zone external accounts are struggling against a euro appreciation.
RELEASE: Retail Sales [Germany] (94.6)
FIRST TAKE: Retail sales in Germany contracted sharply in December both compared to November and to one year ago. Germany’s sclerotic labor market and depressed consumer confidence continued to take their toll.
RELEASE: Business and Consumer Survey [Euro Zone] (95.8)
FIRST TAKE: Business and consumer sentiment in the euro zone resumed its ascent in January after a brief retrenchment in December. Improvements in industrial and retailer confidence drove sentiment up. Consumer confidence remained unchanged.
RELEASE: GDP [Ireland] (-0.1%)
FIRST TAKE: Growth in Ireland slowed further in the third quarter, turning negative for the first time in over five years. Falling investment and exports continue to weigh down recovery.
RELEASE: Consumer Confidence [United Kingdom] (0.0)
FIRST TAKE: Sentiment among U.K. consumers improved again in January. According to research carried out by Martin Hamblin GfK on behalf of the European Commission, the headline consumer sentiment index for the U.K. increased to 0 in January from -5 in December. January marks the first month since November 2002 that the index rose above negative territory. In particular, consumers were optimistic about expectations for a general economic recovery, and that this was a good time to buy major purchases.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [New Zealand] (5.25%)
FIRST TAKE: The RBNZ responded to latent inflation pressure and lifted its official interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%.
RELEASE: Business Survey [France] (102)
FIRST TAKE: French business confidence rose for the sixth consecutive month, to a 32 month high of 102 in January. Rising output and improvements in the general outlook boosted confidence. Export orders slipped, though they remained strong.
RELEASE: Nationwide Housing Price Index [United Kingdom] (14.3%)
FIRST TAKE: House price growth decelerated in the U.K. during January. According to the Nationwide survey of house prices, the price of the average U.K. property rose 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, which puts the year-on-year change at 14.3%. The January turnout is the lowest rate of growth since March 2002.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Czech Republic] (2.00%)
FIRST TAKE: The Czech National Bank opted to leave all three of its monetary policy instruments unchanged at the conclusion of today’s meeting.
RELEASE: Consumer Confidence [United Kingdom] (0.0)
FIRST TAKE: Sentiment among U.K. consumers improved again in January. According to research carried out by Martin Hamblin GfK on behalf of the European Commission, the headline consumer sentiment index for the U.K. increased to 0 in January from -5 in December. January marks the first month since November 2002 that the index rose above negative territory. In particular, consumers were optimistic about expectations for a general economic recovery, and that this was a good time to buy major purchases.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [New Zealand] (5.25%)
FIRST TAKE: The RBNZ responded to latent inflation pressure and lifted its official interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%.
RELEASE: Business Survey [France] (102)
FIRST TAKE: French business confidence rose for the sixth consecutive month, to a 32 month high of 102 in January. Rising output and improvements in the general outlook boosted confidence. Export orders slipped, though they remained strong.
RELEASE: Nationwide Housing Price Index [United Kingdom] (14.3%)
FIRST TAKE: House price growth decelerated in the U.K. during January. According to the Nationwide survey of house prices, the price of the average U.K. property rose 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, which puts the year-on-year change at 14.3%. The January turnout is the lowest rate of growth since March 2002.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Czech Republic] (2.00%)
FIRST TAKE: The Czech National Bank opted to leave all three of its monetary policy instruments unchanged at the conclusion of today’s meeting.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Norway] (2.0%)
FIRST TAKE: At the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting, the Executive Board at Norges Bank decided to reduce the target for its monetary policy instrument—the sight deposit rate—by twenty-five basis points to 2.0%. The economy is in a recovery stage, though price trends are well below the central bank’s target of 2.5%, providing ample room for more stimulus to cement the recovery.
RELEASE: IFO Business Climate Index [Germany] (97.4)
FIRST TAKE: The IFO Business Climate Index recorded its ninth consecutive gain in January. The index increased above expectations, marking its highest level in three years.
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