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What I Fear Will Happen To Iraq
NOTE: The US-led invasion of Iraq already happened. Nothing can change these events. So, opinions on the invasion itself, in this thread, are inconsequential.
What happens when the troops leave, and Iraq is left to shape themselves into a stable country, with a society that respects them? Can they do it? What will this government do to stop any hostile groups that may spawn in their country? How long will this government last?
Iraq, and it's people, obviously, are influenced by nations around them. Saudi Arabia is a deeply religious state due to the majority of people practicing wahhabism. Iran is also a conservative islam state, mainly because of the shah's attempts to westernize the country. Compared to it's neighbors, Kuwait is a very modernized, and westernized country, due to its lucrative oil exportation. All these countries influence Iraq and it's people, and vice versa.
When all foreign troops leave Iraq, the government will have to make a decision that could make, or break, it's survival. The Iraqi government will have to choose to embrace free democracy, or to drop it. If they embrace free democracy, many things will come to Iraqi society that might not be appealing to the majority. Westernization is the worst thing that could come with free democracy. Capitalism and private enterprise could taint Iraqi society, and could also corrupt the government. Organized crime could seize and carve out privately-owned businesses, similar to what happened in Russia, Moscow to be more specific.
A quick and abrupt change to westernization is very dangerous, especially in a islamic country. This new lifestyle would most definately alarm the conservative islamic groups. There would be uprisings, similar to what happened in Iran, and eventually, there would be an overthrown government.
I believe that a revolution, or possibly even a civil war will shape the country into what it will be in 15 to 20 years.
Your thoughts?
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