Russia offered Iran a similar deal a month or two ago (i.e. the provision of low-grade uranium suitable for use in power stations but not the development of nuclear weapons, in exchange for Iran's abandonment of its uranium-enrichment programs) but Iran rejected that offer, so I'm not sure if we should be confident that this deal will end up any differently.

The fact is that Ahmadinejad has the Western world at his beck and call right now - why would he want to give that up?

EDIT: Now with more linky goodness:

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20060411/45575203.html

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Last edited by Renegade on Jun-06-2006 at 15:56

quote:

Originally posted by Renegade The fact is that Ahmadinejad has the Western world at his beck and call right now - why would he want to give that up?

Because ultimately it will prove the Supreme Council's true intentions to the world and not just relying on the same old tired lines about American imperialism, etc. After all to be offered all of these incentives and to not accept would be very dubious on their part as to the motives. What else could the world do besides just letting them build a nuclear bomb if they don't accept strong proposals delivered by Solano. The ball is fully in Iran's corner.

Its not just Russia now but the E.U. U.S. China as well that are offering up economic, political incentives to them to stop enrichment of uranium and pursue a nuclear program that will provide nuclear power but not weapons. Let's be honest many claim the U.S. was ready to invade,never mind the Iraq situation, now they are offering nuclear technology, that is a big difference in my mind.

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quote:

Originally posted by NYCTrancefan Because ultimately it will prove the Supreme Council's true intentions to the world and not just relying on the same old tired lines about American imperialism, etc. After all to be offered all of these incentives and to not accept would be very dubious on their part as to the motives. What else could the world do besides just letting them build a nuclear bomb if they don't accept strong proposals delivered by Solano. The ball is fully in Iran's corner.

You're completely right here of course. If Iran is being sincere about its motives, then it has absolutely no rational reason to reject this offer - but then when has the current Iranian administration ever inspired you to believe that it is in the least bit sincere or in the least bit rational? As you said, so long as Ahmadinejad can use the leverage of nuclear proliferation against the West "to keep the domestic populace in control and hold on to the Islamic Revolutionary fervor" then I imagine he will continue to do so.

I hope I'm wrong, naturally, but given that the Russian offer failed, I'm not sure that this offer stands much of a realistic chance of succeeding either.

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It's all a game of political chess. Sometimes you have to surrender a Queen in order to get 2 Queens. The problem, as I see it, that there's enough pressure in the White House to just dump some coal into the White House lobby and be pretty certain you can come back next morning to collect pure diamonds.

So much for "No negotiating under the gun". However, I do think that Washington is trying to portray to the world that Iran has failed to accept any compromise and is after a nuke. However, even if US does manage to build its case, all the blunders in Iraq will be enough to offset any response from "allies". And Russia or China will have their mandatory "so what" response. Because Iran's nukes will not be aimed at Iran's best customers and patron saints.

Furthermore, expect some dirty tactics from Russia or China, should US start planning a strike. Two of the best intel agencies in the world will most likely be supplying intelligence to Iran. And shahs don't even need to get their own satelites into orbit to get it. Most likely it will even be delivered in a nice box with gift ribbons around it.

Sadly, US at the moment is a victim of (pick your own analogy, if you must) "A boy who cried 'wolf' too many times" predicament. Texas rodeo clown only has an imaginary stick he can wave, the real one has been lost among sand dunes of Iraq in the eyes of the world...

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quote:

No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don’t want to die to get there. And yet death is the destination we all share. No one has ever escaped it. And that is as it should be, because Death is very likely the single best invention of Life. It is Life’s change agent. It clears out the old to make way for the new. Right now the new is you, but someday not too long from now, you will gradually become the old and be cleared away. Sorry to be so dramatic, but it is quite true.

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quote:

Originally posted by NYCTrancefan Because ultimately it will prove the Supreme Council's true intentions to the world and not just relying on the same old tired lines about American imperialism, etc. After all to be offered all of these incentives and to not accept would be very dubious on their part as to the motives. What else could the world do besides just letting them build a nuclear bomb if they don't accept strong proposals delivered by Solano. The ball is fully in Iran's corner. Its not just Russia now but the E.U. U.S. China as well that are offering up economic, political incentives to them to stop enrichment of uranium and pursue a nuclear program that will provide nuclear power but not weapons. Let's be honest many claim the U.S. was ready to invade,never mind the Iraq situation, now they are offering nuclear technology, that is a big difference in my mind.

People seem to forget that the U.S. has always said that they will not take anything off the table and would use all available dialouge available before doing anything drastic.

I think it's great if Iran actually comprimises with the conditions.
If they don't, you're right NYCTrancefan, they certainly will look like cretins to everybody...

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quote:

Originally posted by emc^2 It's all a game of political chess. Sometimes you have to surrender a Queen in order to get 2 Queens. The problem, as I see it, that there's enough pressure in the White House to just dump some coal into the White House lobby and be pretty certain you can come back next morning to collect pure diamonds. So much for "No negotiating under the gun". However, I do think that Washington is trying to portray to the world that Iran has failed to accept any compromise and is after a nuke. However, even if US does manage to build its case, all the blunders in Iraq will be enough to offset any response from "allies". And Russia or China will have their mandatory "so what" response. Because Iran's nukes will not be aimed at Iran's best customers and patron saints. Furthermore, expect some dirty tactics from Russia or China, should US start planning a strike. Two of the best intel agencies in the world will most likely be supplying intelligence to Iran. And shahs don't even need to get their own satelites into orbit to get it. Most likely it will even be delivered in a nice box with gift ribbons around it. Sadly, US at the moment is a victim of (pick your own analogy, if you must) "A boy who cried 'wolf' too many times" predicament. Texas rodeo clown only has an imaginary stick he can wave, the real one has been lost among sand dunes of Iraq in the eyes of the world...

I disagree with this the perfect scenario for Washington, if Iran accepts its win/win for everyone, if they dont accept it gives Washington/EU/Israel the leverage it needs to strike against Iran either finanacially or militairly