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NYCTrancefan
Destination Everywhere!



Registered: Jul 2003
Location: New York City in a Café del Mar mood
Democratic Caucus and Primaries

I am really enjoying just watching as this process devolops and will continue to do so. All I can say is thank goodness that Dean will now be forced to say something other than he is against Bush's policies(who cares) talk about the issues as a politician that reflects your entire political positions, not just a couple of subjects. I would have supported Dean if he had a larger and clearer message but I know nothing much about the guy other than he is staunchly anti-war. There is a long way to go in this process but so far I like what I see, hope that Clark can put up a good showing in New Hampshire, but with Kerry and Edwards first and second in Iowa I am a bit worried about how New Hampshire will swing. New Hampshire will be a war, looking down the road I see a solid Northern/Southern Democratic ticket for November.


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Old Post Jan-20-2004 03:14  United States
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DaveSZ
When The Levee Breaks



Registered: Jan 2003
Location: ATX
Thumbs up Kerry wins Iowa, Edwards second

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS...main/index.html

quote:


Kerry projected Iowa winner; Gephardt out
Edwards in second place; Dean vows to fight on
Monday, January 19, 2004 Posted: 10:16 PM EST (0316 GMT)


DES MOINES, Iowa (CNN) -- Iowa Democrats upended the Democratic presidential race Monday night, according to CNN projections, giving Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts a strong victory and ending the White House dreams of Rep. Dick Gephardt of neighboring Missouri.

Howard Dean, once widely viewed as the national front-runner, was in fourth place, a finish that drains him of momentum going into next week's New Hampshire primary.

John Edwards, a first-term senator from North Carolina whose once listless campaign gained new life in Iowa, was in second place.

Gephardt, who was once battling Dean for supremacy in Iowa, finished fourth in a state he once said he had to win, and sources said he would drop out of the race.

A Gephardt aide said the candidate was expected to formally withdraw Tuesday.

With 89 percent of the nearly 2,000 precincts reporting, Kerry had won 38 percent of the state convention delegates, with 32 percent for Edwards and just 18 percent for Dean and 11 percent for Gephardt, according to figures reported by the Iowa Democratic Party.

Iowa's results promise to set the tone for next week's primary in New Hampshire and seven contests on February 3.

The race in Iowa had tightened considerably in recent days, bringing some suspense, surprise and electricity to the Democratic fight. (Audio Slide Show: Bill Schneider on what the outcome may mean)

An estimated 100,000 to 125,000 Iowans braved single-digit temperatures across the state to attend nearly 2,000 local precinct caucuses, which started at 6:30 p.m. (7:30 p.m. ET).

In an interview with CNN's Larry King Live, Dean conceded victory to Kerry but vowed to take the battle on to New Hampshire, which holds its primary January 27.

"We have a 50-state organization, and we're going to go on," he said. "Certainly, we would have like to have done better, but we worked hard. We got a lot of great people working for us, and on to New Hampshire."

Kerry supporters watching from New Hampshire cheered the results, but from the Kerry camp in Iowa, the only early reaction was, "We're encouraged by the turnout."

Edwards said his strong finish was attributable to "an incredible response to a message that's finally getting through -- my message of hope and optimism and trying to build one America."

"Finally, here at the end, caucus-goers in Iowa heard it, and that's the reason for this momentum and this surge," he told CNN.

The result was a disappointment for Gephardt, who won the Iowa caucuses in 1988.

Industrial unions provided the backbone for Gephardt's campaign in Iowa. A labor source told CNN that it was "pretty clear" that he was not able to expand beyond that base.

"There wasn't the enthusiasm for Dick," the source said.

Once viewed as a two-way contest between Dean and Gephardt, the dynamics of the race changed dramatically as Kerry and Edwards surged in late polls.

Kerry's strong showing could well call into question Dean's front-runner status -- as determined by various national polls, fund raising and endorsements -- and give Kerry new momentum going into New Hampshire.

Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio had 1 percent in the Iowa caucuses, and civil right activist Al Sharpton trailed him.

Two other Democratic hopefuls -- retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark, who places second to Dean in national polls, and Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut -- have skipped Iowa to concentrate on the New Hampshire primary. (CNN.com's interactive Election Calendar)



Kerry is a pretty good guy, and so is Edwards. Anyone but Dean.


quote:
I voted for what I thought was best for the country. Did I expect Howard Dean to go off to the left and say, 'I'm against everything?' Sure. Did I expect George Bush to fuck it up as badly as he did? I don't think anybody did.

-Sen. John Kerry in Rolling Stone



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Old Post Jan-20-2004 03:26 
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NYCTrancefan
Destination Everywhere!



Registered: Jul 2003
Location: New York City in a Café del Mar mood

A while back Bush seemed unbeatable, I don't believe it is so clear cut especially if you have candidates that can trump him on the issue of National Security policies and don't even let's get started on Domestic policies.


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Old Post Jan-20-2004 03:57  United States
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imokruok
Lawyers, guns, and money



Registered: Aug 2003
Location: Los Angeles, CA / Milwaukee, WI

Very interesting results tonight. As a Republican, I wouldn't vote for any of them, but Dick Gephardt - the most reasonable of the bunch - is currently giving his "concession" speech.

That said, don't expect the same results in New Hampshire. First of all, that's a real vote, not a caucus. I expect Dean and Kerry will both do well, but Edwards is an unknown in NH, and will probably come in a distant third.

Also, Joe Lieberman and Wesley Clark could play an interesting role, stealing votes from the Edwards and Kerry-type voters, but not from Dean supporters. Lieberman skipped Iowa (not a bad move), and was endored by the Union-Leader newspaper.

From a Republican standpoint, a Kerry win tonight is actually a pretty good thing. Now Dean and Kerry will continue to snipe at each other. The longer it takes the Democratic party to pick a candidate, the longer Bush can wait before getting involved.


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Last edited by imokruok on Jan-20-2004 at 04:09

Old Post Jan-20-2004 04:00  United States
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Nadi
Not quite an addict



Registered: Dec 2001
Location: Los Angeles, Californa,

Go Kerry, hooray.

I don't know how big of a deal this will be in NH but I sure hope it helps Kerry, and hurts Dean. Not only can I not stand Dean, but I think if he represents the democrats come november bush will win easily, which isn't something I'd be all that happy about.

Old Post Jan-20-2004 05:43  United States
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Pio
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Jun 2002
Location: NYC-New Haven- San Juan-Amsterdam / PRTA #1

Skull and Bones wins again

Old Post Jan-20-2004 06:51  Puerto Rico
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occrider
Traveladdict



Registered: Oct 2000
Location: New York

quote:
Originally posted by YaleTrance
Skull and Bones wins again


And why are you not wearing your tinfoil hat??? Can't be too careful nowadays

although it is your alma mater so maybe you do have the inside scoop

Old Post Jan-20-2004 07:05  United States
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DaveSZ
When The Levee Breaks



Registered: Jan 2003
Location: ATX

quote:
Originally posted by imokruok
Very interesting results tonight. As a Republican, I wouldn't vote for any of them, but Dick Gephardt - the most reasonable of the bunch - is currently giving his "concession" speech.

That said, don't expect the same results in New Hampshire. First of all, that's a real vote, not a caucus. I expect Dean and Kerry will both do well, but Edwards is an unknown in NH, and will probably come in a distant third.

Also, Joe Lieberman and Wesley Clark could play an interesting role, stealing votes from the Edwards and Kerry-type voters, but not from Dean supporters. Lieberman skipped Iowa (not a bad move), and was endored by the Union-Leader newspaper.

From a Republican standpoint, a Kerry win tonight is actually a pretty good thing. Now Dean and Kerry will continue to snipe at each other. The longer it takes the Democratic party to pick a candidate, the longer Bush can wait before getting involved.



From a Democratic standpoint, I'm elated that Dean finished so far back in the pack. My only wish would have been that he'd have finished fourth.

It proves that endorsements don't mean anything, and that it's more about the person. Did you see Dean’s ranting speech to his supporters afterwards? Jesus, Rove would so love to go against this guy! Saddam being captured killed Dean's campaign, and thus it was a good thing for our soldiers' safety and the fate of our country. Dean is also killing his campaign every time he opens his mouth, but at the same time he was good for the other candidates who have refined Dean's tough talk approach to great success.

Kerry standing there in his Air Force bomber jacket with all of those veterans and volunteer firemen behind him, in my opinion makes him almost as formidable an opponent to Bush as Clark does. Kerry also has a lot of money at his disposal for his campaign. The fact that a Republican and also another different vet whose lives Kerry saved in Vietnam are out campaigning for him is going to help Kerry out a lot in the primaries. It gives Kerry incredible gravitas on the issue of national security and “the war on terror,” compared to Bush’s draft dodging.

Kerry looked like a President to me.

Edwards never attacks anyone for the most part, and has a really positive uplifting campaign. That, and the fact he's from the South makes him a great candidate or running mate.

I think Clark’s late entry into the race, his use of federal campaign funding, and his lack of political experience could cost him the top spot. I can only hope that he would do the right thing for our country, and take the VP or Secretary of ___ spot if offered.

The fact that a Republican newspaper would endorse Lieberman really shows where he is ideologically, and that’s not going to help him out at all among democratic primary voters. I do give Joe credit for his great environmental record, and that issue really separates him from most Republicans.

Gephardt is a really nice man, but his appeal wasn't broad enough I don't think. Much respect to him for his leadership in the House.


So here's what I'd like to see happen:

-Clark/Kerry

-Kerry/Clark

-Clark/Edwards

-Kerry/Edwards (Clark in a position like Secretary of State or Secretary of Defense)

-Dean, Kucinich, and Sharpton herding their supporters to support the above potential tickets after they lose in the primaries. They’ve done a great thing for their country by inspiring and giving a voice to disaffected young people and African Americans.

-Bush back in Crawford, or better yet, the nuclear waste dump in Nevada he’s proposed.

-We’ll win Nevada in the Electoral College (the Sierra Club is going to make sure of that).

-The House will almost certainly stay in Republican control because of gerrymandering in Texas and Pennsylvania, and in the possible case of a tie in the Electoral College, Bush will win a second term by being voted in by the House of Representatives.

-A strong Democratic presidential ticket with Southerners at the top could help win back the Senate for Democrats, but it will be a tough fight. I’m from the South, so I have a “feel” for what works here. Give me a little credit on that last one.



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Last edited by DaveSZ on Jan-20-2004 at 07:57

Old Post Jan-20-2004 07:32 
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occrider
Traveladdict



Registered: Oct 2000
Location: New York

quote:
Originally posted by DaveSaenz

It proves that endorsements don't mean anything, and that it's more about the person. Did you see Dean’s ranting speech to his supporters afterwards? Jesus, Rove would so love to go against this guy! Saddam being captured killed Dean's campaign, and thus it was a good thing for our soldiers' safety and the fate of our country. Dean is also killing his campaign every time he opens his mouth, but at the same time he was good for the other candidates who have refined Dean's tough talk approach to great success.


Wow ... dean's speech was certainly something else. I think he was drunk. At any rate here's part of his speech:

http://www.foxnews.com/access/video.html#332

I was surprised fox didn't include the crazier parts of his speech. At one point in his speech he reverted to speaking in Spanish ... and in another part he's telling everybody to go to New Hampshire to vote (ummm isn't that illegal?). It was one hell of a speech

Old Post Jan-20-2004 07:41  United States
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DaveSZ
When The Levee Breaks



Registered: Jan 2003
Location: ATX

Yeah it looked like he was on Coke or something.

It's only a good thing, and bad for Republicans who were hoping they'd be going against him.


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Old Post Jan-20-2004 07:44 
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occrider
Traveladdict



Registered: Oct 2000
Location: New York

And KANSAS, AND ARIZONA, AND NEW MEXICO, AND NEW HAMPSHIRE, AND WASHINGTON, AND SOUTH CAROLINA ...

christ I thought he was gonna name all 50 states.

Old Post Jan-20-2004 07:47  United States
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DaveSZ
When The Levee Breaks



Registered: Jan 2003
Location: ATX

I'd just like to add, GG Iowa!


Kerry article in Rolling Stone. (Note, it was written before his huge comeback in Iowa):


http://www.rollingstone.com/feature...en.asp?pid=2454

[quote]
John Kerry's Desperate Hours

The one-time Democratic front-runner is fighting for his survival

By Will Dana



On a Friday in November, at the end of a tough week, John Kerry projects an aura of friendly confidence that suggests he is either out of touch with reality or has the serenity of a Zen master. In the last five days, Kerry has fired his campaign manager and then seen two staffers walk out the door. He has decided to opt out of the public financing for his campaign -- ostensibly to keep up with his chief rival, blunt, plain-spoken former Vermont governor Howard Dean, who made a similar decision earlier in the week, but also, as Time will report a few days later, because his campaign is having trouble persuading anyone to write a check.
Until pretty much the moment he started running in earnest earlier this year, Kerry's campaign for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination had about it an aura of inevitability. Most watchers attributed the four-term Massachusetts senator's overconfidence to a hubris born of his patrician roots. The shorthand became: Because this guy went to a fancy prep school and then was tapped to join Skull and Bones at Yale, he just naturally assumes the nomination is his. But in person, Kerry projects something different: He doesn't seem elitist or aloof. Just the opposite, in fact. He is eager to connect, intense and hopped-up, pulling near-strangers in tight for old-friends-style handshakes, throwing around a lot of "man" and "dude." In these moments, the detail about Kerry that seems most important is not his elitist roots but the fact that he's a sixty-year-old guy who likes to snowboard.

Kerry brings to the race a dramatic life story and a resume so perfectly burnished that he seems almost a fictional creation. Born into an old-line family of Boston Brahmins, he was educated at Swiss boarding schools before attending St. Paul's and then Yale. As a teenager, he sailed off Newport, Rhode Island, with President John F. Kennedy. A few years later, as a young naval officer, he became a bona fide war hero in Vietnam, then returned home in 1969 and emerged as a prominent anti-war activist. He co-founded Vietnam Veterans Against the War, testified in Congress, headlined a peace rally with John Lennon and became a target of the Nixon White House ("Destroy the young demagogue before he becomes another Ralph Nader," wrote Nixon aide Charles Colson in a memo to the president).

Kerry was elected to the Senate in 1984 after working as a prosecutor and serving as lieutenant governor of Massachusetts. In the Senate, he became known for his high-profile investigations: He was one of the first members of Congress to probe the Iran-Contra scandal; in 1988, he helped uncover the massive BCCI banking scandal. In the Nineties, he joined Arizona senator John McCain to investigate -- and put to rest -- claims that American POWs were still being held in Vietnam. More recently, he led the fight to protect the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge from oil drilling.

But it's another recent vote that most seems to have gotten Kerry into trouble with Democratic voters -- his decision to back the president's resolution to go to war in Iraq. Kerry offers a logical and well-reasoned rationale for favoring the war. But the stump is probably not the best place for nuance, and so Kerry's on-the-one-hand, on-the-other-hand stance has come off as overly calculated when contrasted with Dean's sledgehammer anti-war bluster.

With less than two months to go until he faces voters in Iowa and then New Hampshire, Kerry is refashioning himself as a bare-knuckled longshot -- the insider as outsider. Neither a bleeding heart, an insurgent, a new face nor a technocrat, Kerry is selling himself to voters as the guy who knows how the game is played in Washington. His challenge will be to show them that's not all he knows.

It seems that the fact that you voted in support of the president's war resolution has caused you a lot of trouble in your campaign. Do you regret supporting the president?

What I regret most of all is the way the administration dealt with it -- the extraordinary failure of the administration to keep its promises, to be mature and thoughtful about how you take a nation to war. They misled us; they presented false intelligence to us. The president made a series of promises to us -- number one, that he was gonna make every effort possible to build a legitimate coalition. He did not -- he built a fraudulent coalition. Second, he was gonna exhaust the remedies of the United Nations and the inspection process. He did not. And third, that he would go to war as a last resort. He did not.

I voted to protect the security of our country, based on the notion that the only way to get inspectors back in was to have a legitimate threat of force and the potential of using it. They took that legitimacy and bastardized it. If I were president, we would not be in Iraq today -- we would not be at war. This president abused the process.

Had you thought of Bush as someone whose word you could trust at that point?

It seems to me that we had a right to expect the president of the United States to live up to his word. It was disgraceful, one of the most egregious, fundamentally flawed moments of foreign policy that I can think of in my lifetime.

You were highly critical of the way they conducted the Afghanistan war, as well.

But that was a question of strategy, not whether we should be there or not. They had Osama bin Laden and a thousand Al Qaeda fighters cornered in the Tora Bora mountains and allowed them to escape.

Why do you think that was? Were they afraid of losing troops?

I think, at that point in time, yes. They ran a risk-averse operation. They didn't move any of our available legitimate forces into the area. Instead, they sent Afghans -- who, a week earlier, were fighting on the other side -- up into the mountains and said, "Hey, you go get the number-one criminal in the world." It sounds pretty stupid to me, frankly.

Are you saying that Bush's conduct of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan -- not to mention the way he has pissed off our allies -- has been incompetent?

Oh, absolutely. Worse than incompetent. Clouded by ideological excess, a misinterpretation of history, a willful denial of facts.

Is Iraq turning into another Vietnam?

Not yet, but it's on its way, absent major changes in the way they're doing business.

The economy is clearly going to be the number-one issue in this election -- it always is. Bush has certainly looked vulnerable on this front. But in the past few weeks, it looks like we've started to see some positive economic news. Does this take a big issue away from the Democrats?

Whether the economy is good or bad, it doesn't change the fundamentals of my campaign for the presidency. Because I believe this administration is so badly out of touch with the needs of the American people, I think it is so much in the pocket of powerful special interests, I think it is so much working against the interests of average Americans -- that having a stronger economy, in their equation, is not gonna change life for a lot of Americans.

When the other Democratic candidates talk about Bush, they pretty much just bash his policies. You not only do that, but you also question his basic fitness to serve -- you just said he was incompetent. My question is: When Republicans ran against Clinton, they made a huge issue out of Clinton's character. Why isn't the character issue being taken to George Bush?

If you're running for the presidency, there are other things you have to focus on. I want to paint an optimistic, hopeful vision for the country and open people's eyes to the things that we could be doing with respect to, say, energy independence. In the 1930s, we thought it was critical to get electricity out into rural America, right? I think it's critical to get clean energy out to every part of America. Let's help create the framework to do it.

Did you feel you were blindsided by Dean's success?

Well, not blindsided. I mean, when I voted for the war, I voted for what I thought was best for the country. Did I expect Howard Dean to go off to the left and say, "I'm against everything"? Sure. Did I expect George Bush to fuck it up as badly as he did? I don't think anybody did.

Do you see Dean as the next George McGovern? It's being said that the Republicans are foaming at the mouth to go against Dean.

Republicans have been contributing to Dean's campaign on the Internet. Look, Bush stood up in the White House Rose Garden a week ago and said, "I'm gonna run for re-election on the basis of my pre-emption doctrine and our ability to make the world safer." He has declared his strategy. And unless we have a nominee who can go right at him on that strategy, we're gonna be in trouble.

What do you think of Arnold Schwarzenegger becoming governor of California?

Well, first of all, Arnold's a friend of mine. I've known him for a long time, and he's a capable guy. I mean, he's smart and capable. I would have preferred that there had been no recall. I went out and campaigned against it. But I understand the anger that existed out there.

Do you think that same anger is propelling Dean's candidacy?

Other people have to determine that. I'm not an analyst. I'm running for president based on my vision for the country, and I think I have a longer, stronger, deeper record of fighting against those interests, and representing that anger, than Howard Dean.

You have talked in the past of smoking pot when you returned from Vietnam. What do you think of the way the pot laws are prosecuted today?

We have never had a legitimate War on Drugs in the United States, ever, and we won't until we have treatment on demand for addiction and until you have full drug education in our schools. The mandatory-minimum-sentencing structure of our country is funneling people into jail who have no business being there.

And every year, the number of people arrested for marijuana offenses goes up.

I've met plenty of people in my lifetime who've used marijuana and who I would not qualify as serious addicts -- who use about the same amount as some people drink beer or wine or have a cocktail. I don't get too excited by any of that.

Would you favor decriminalization?

No, not quite. What we did in the prosecutor's office was have a sort of unspoken approach to marijuana that was almost effectively decriminalization. We just didn't bother with small-time use. It doesn't rise to the level of nuisance, even. And what we were after was people dealing with heroin and destroying lives, and people who were killing people. That's where you need to focus.

What's most important to you in this campaign?

This is a critical time for the country. The stakes are just enormous. We need a president, frankly, who has the kind of experience that I've had: of being in a war, understanding its downsides but understanding the nature of the threats in the world. Understanding that you couldn't leave Saddam Hussein to his own devices, but you needed to do this in a very responsible, thoughtful way.

Does this change the way we relate to the world?

I'm gonna lift this country up to a greater engagement in the world. I mean, think of what we could do to reach out and begin to present a different face of our country. Think of what we could do to advance the interests of the developing world, so people would see the United States as not just this aggressive, arrogant force that only thinks of itself and doesn't really have a greater sense of humanity and concern. We're just not embracing any of that stuff today, and it drives me crazy.

(December 2, 2003)


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Old Post Jan-20-2004 08:05 
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