What are the chances that these troops will be kept there after the elections? Events don't look good there even after Fallujah. The death toll may never reach epic proportions, but it seems like the war and the costs in lives and dollars will drag on....

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quote:

U.S. Likely to Boost Forces in Iraq By ROBERT BURNS, AP Military Writer WASHINGTON - Commanders in Iraq (news - web sites) probably will expand their troops by several thousand as the January elections approach, the No. 2 commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East said Friday. Lt. Gen. Lance L. Smith told a Pentagon (news - web sites) news conference that no final decisions have been made and that the size of the troop increase will depend in part on whether the insurgency grows or weakens in the aftermath of the Fallujah offensive, which he called a major success. Smith estimated that commanders would ask for about a brigade's worth of extra troops, which would be roughly 5,000. He said that probably would be achieved by keeping some units that were scheduled to serve 10 months in Iraq for an extra two months. He did not name the units. There now are about 138,000 U.S. troops in Iraq, he said. "We will make a further assessment as we get a little bit closer" to the elections scheduled for late January, "and as we understand what the impact of Fallujah is on the entire country," he said. Smith said he believed that terror mastermind Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was still in Iraq but that the U.S.-Iraqi offensive this past week had eliminated Fallujah as a Zarqawi base of operations. The three-star general also said it appeared that Zarqawi and senior leaders of the al-Qaida terrorist network had attempted to communicate, probably by courier, from Pakistan or Afghanistan (news - web sites). "We know for a fact that there are attempted communications between them," he said. "There is a relationship between al-Qaida senior leadership and Zarqawi. How to characterize that, we don't know yet." That does not mean that al-Qaida is offering instruction or guidance to the insurgency in Iraq, he said. "I wouldn't characterize it as giving guidance, other than broad philosophy." The coordinator of U.S. reconstruction work in Iraq, meanwhile, said security risks to workers in Sunni-dominated parts of the country have grown worse over the past six weeks. "We're having greater difficulties," said William Taylor, director of the Iraqi Reconstruction Management Office in the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. "We're worried that in some areas — again, not all — in some areas it would now be difficult to have elections," and so it is important that reconstruction work be accelerated so voting can take place nationwide in late January, Taylor said. He spoke from Baghdad in a video teleconference with reporters at the Pentagon. He said reconstruction is continuing in southern and northeastern Iraq without serious problems. An independent assessment of U.S. aid efforts in Iraq, by analyst Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, paints a somewhat gloomier picture. Cordesman wrote in a study published Thursday, that despite some successes the aid work has fallen short. "U.S. economic aid has lagged far behind the need for urgent action, has wasted vast resources on an impractical contracting effort and reflects U.S. views and priorities" rather than those of the Iraqis, he wrote. Cordesman also urged that the U.S. government begin to transfer the management of economic aid to the Iraqi government, allowing the Iraqis to use the money for their own projects. More broadly, Cordesman said he believes that the odds of the Bush administration achieving its political goal of establishing a stable democracy in Iraq are "at best even, and may well be worse." Charles Hess, director of reconstruction contracting, appeared with Taylor and said that although "security is still a serious concern," U.S. officials believe they can overcome it. "One of our mechanisms to deal with that, frankly, is to start as many projects as we can, given the fact that we know the insurgents can't be everywhere," Hess said. "Consequently, the more projects we start, we are moving Iraqis out, we're getting them employed, they are doing meaningful labor, they're restoring their country, and in and of itself that is a very positive and powerful thing we want to accomplish between now and the elections in January." Hess said insurgent sabotage is a problem, particularly in the oil industry that is the backbone of Iraq's economy. Of the $18.4 billion in Iraq reconstruction funds allocated by Congress last year, only $1.7 billion has been spent, Hess said, an increase of about $400 million from six weeks ago. He said 873 construction projects have been started, up from 703 six weeks ago. The goal is to have 1,000 started by year's end.

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