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Europe Might Get Two New Countries Tomorrow!
Montenegro will be voting for independence 
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4994212.stm
| quote: | Q&A: Montenegro referendum
Montenegrins will decide in a vote on Sunday whether their small coastal republic should remain part of the state union of Serbia and Montenegro or become fully independent.
What is at stake?
The union of Serbia and Montenegro is now all that remains of the federation of six republics that made up Yugoslavia before the independence wars of the 1990s.
In terms of both population and area, Montenegro is very much overshadowed by Serbia, and many Montenegrins - including Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic - would like their republic to make the final break and go it alone.
The pro-independence camp insists that Montenegro is being held back by its association with Serbia.
Those in favour of preserving the union point to the strong historical links between Montenegrins and Serbs - who share the same language and Orthodox Christian faith - and economic ties between the two republics.
How do things stand at the moment?
The union of Serbia-Montenegro was formed in March 2002 as the successor state to Yugoslavia under the EU-brokered Belgrade Agreement.
According to the 2003 census, the population of Montenegro is 670,000, of whom 43% are Montenegrins, 32% Serbs, 14% Muslim Slav, 7% Albanians, 1% Croats and 1% Roma. The population of Serbia is nearly 10 million.
Despite the close historic ties between the two republics, Montenegro already enjoys a high level of autonomy and uses the euro as currency instead of the Serbian dinar.
Who is in favour of independence?
Broadly speaking, most ethnic Montenegrins and the Montenegrin government back the drive to independence. The ethnic minorities are seen as mostly favouring independence, though some have expressed doubts over their status in an independent Montenegro.
During the early 1990s, the present prime minister, Milo Djukanovic, was a key ally of Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic and favoured the preservation of some form of federal state.
But as Mr Milosevic's policies attracted ever greater international condemnation, Mr Djukanovic gradually distanced himself from his former mentor and came to see Montenegrin independence as his ultimate goal.
Who is opposed to it?
Those against independence tend to identify themselves as ethnically Serb and see no real distinction between Serbs and Montenegrins.
Many are strong supporters of the Orthodox faith and see the historical and religious ties between Serbs and Montenegrins as being stronger than any divisions. They point out that the greatest Montenegrin historical figures often described themselves as Serbs.
The pro-union Montenegrin opposition regularly accuses Mr Djukanovic of seeking to set up his own "private state".
What is Serbia's position?
Serbia sees the Montenegrin independence drive as a stab in the back and believes that dissolution of the union will fuel Kosovo Albanian demands for independent statehood.
What line is the Orthodox Church taking?
The official Montenegrin Orthodox Church is part of the Serbian Orthodox Church and is against independence.
An independent Montenegrin Orthodox Church was set up in 2000 with the backing of Mr Djukanovic. This supports independence but is regarded as a renegade body by the Orthodox Church globally.
What form will the referendum take?
On 21 May, a single question will be put to voters: "Do you want the Republic of Montenegro to be an independent state with full international and legal subjectivity?"
A 55% majority is required for a "yes" vote to be accepted internationally. This figure was proposed by the EU after the two sides failed to reach agreement on what the threshold should be.
But the pro-independence camp insists that if less than 55% but more than 50% vote for independence - that is, if the figure falls within what is being referred to as the "grey zone" - then this will be seen as a mandate to continue the drive for a separate state.
The Montenegrin diaspora has the right to vote - with the exception of Montenegrins living in Serbia, who are barred from voting in the referendum.
What is the likely outcome?
Opinion polls in March indicated that, based on a estimated voter turnout of about 84%, the pro-independence camp had a lead of about 5% over the unionist camp.
However, a significant percentage of voters - mainly those belonging to the ethnic minorities - were still undecided at the time of these polls, so the result is by no means a foregone conclusion.
What about the Mladic factor?
The EU's suspension of talks on closer ties with Serbia on account of the Belgrade government's failure to arrest top war crimes suspect Ratko Mladic is seen by some analysts as having given a boost to the pro-independence campaign.
Mr Djukanovic has long maintained that an independent Montenegro stands a better chance of achieving EU membership than one linked to Serbia, and the EU's suspension of talks with Serbia is seen in some quarters as vindication of this argument.
Other commentators, however, argue that most voters will already have made up their minds according to their ethnic identity, and that the Mladic factor will only count with waverers. |
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Nathan Fake - Outhouse (Valentino Kanzyani Remix) 
Anti-Purple Alliance.
