The biggest countries in Europe all have fertility rates below the rate needed to sustain their current populations. The only reason that some of them still have positive population growth is that plenty of immigrants are moving in to compensate for the low fertility rates. Interestingly enough, these immigrants often have far higher fertility rates than the "natives," further shifting the demographic balance.

One of the effects of a low birth rate is that it increases the average age of the population. Some demographers estimate that Europe's ratio of working to dependent (non-working) people will be 2:1 by 2050. This means, in effect, that in 2050 the income of two people will have to support three people; two working non-old people plus one old non-working person. That projection assumes that European welfare systems stay roughly as they are now.

Anyway, a couple of questions to hash out:

1. Why are European birth rates so low?

2. Will these low birth rates (and the consequent aging of populations) result in the collapse or scaling back of welfare systems?

3. Some people have worried that the immigrants from Muslim countries will come to "outpopulate" the "native" Europeans, and that the values of these Muslims, which often include far less tolerance for political and religious dissent and far less sexual and reproductive freedom for women, will eventually come to predominate by sheer force of numbers. Is this worry a well-grounded one? Why or why not?

Last edited by MrJiveBoJingles on Dec-04-2007 at 17:57

quote:

Originally posted by MrJiveBoJingles The biggest countries in Europe all have fertility rates below the rate needed to sustain their current populations. The only reason that some of them still have positive population growth is that plenty of immigrants are moving in to compensate for the low fertility rates. Interestingly enough, these immigrants often have far higher fertility rates than the "natives," further shifting the demographic balance. One of the effects of a low birth rate is that it increases the average age of the population. Some demographers estimate that Europe's ratio of working to dependent (non-working) people will be 2:1 by 2050. This means, in effect, that in 2050 the income of two people will to have support three people; two working non-old people plus one old non-working person. That projection assumes that European welfare systems stay roughly as they are now. Anyway, a couple of questions to hash out: 1. Why are European birth rates so low? 2. Will these low birth rates (and the consequent aging of populations) result in the collapse or scaling back of welfare systems? 2. Some people have worried that the immigrants from Muslim countries will come to "outpopulate" the "native" Europeans, and that the values of these Muslims, which often include far less tolerance for political and religious dissent and far less sexual and reproductive freedom for women, will eventually come to predominate by sheer force of numbers. Is this worry a well-grounded one? Why or why not?

not counting immigration i doubt there will be any collapse

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quote:

Originally posted by Halcyon+On+On OOKA-OOKA ME NACHOS ME PRESS KEYS ON COMPUTER GOOD

I would be willing to lend my services to increase the birth rate in Europe. You know what I'm saying!

I don't think the problem is isolated to Europe. In general, generations X and Y are having less kids which leads to big issues with the baby boomer generation hitting retirement. Financial disaster is on its way.

I heard (from somebody living there) that in China they've had to relax the one-child policy because the government realised that there wouldn't be enough people to support the previous generation.

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This is trance...
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quote:

Originally posted by eRRaTiK I don't think the problem is isolated to Europe.

It isn't. It's just that the problem is particularly acute in Europe for two reasons: big welfare programs and especially low birth rates (albeit rivaled by Japan).

OMGCHILDRENOFMEN

Many people choose career and money before kids. Then when they have their well paid jobs the start thinking of kids. That's when they find out it's too late and they can't have children anymore.

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insignificant cor member alliance

I think it's a good thing. Dropping the population is going to be beneficial overall.

quote:

Originally posted by Theresa I think it's a good thing. Dropping the population is going to be beneficial overall.

+1

as far as problems go, overpopulation crisis > welfare crisis

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What?

There is no "overpopulation crisis."

yeah Europe's not that big...and its been filling up for YEARS...

i WISH i lived there sometimes...but i could never get citenzenship anywhere

quote:

Originally posted by Theresa I think it's a good thing. Dropping the population is going to be beneficial overall.

Low birth rates will have huge impact on economies, particularly when the baby boomer generation hit retirement (real soon). There will not be enough people to replace them in the workforce AND they won't have enough money in their pensions to support themselves which leaves generations X and Y with the burden of working to support their parents. The governments won't have enough funds to pay out to all the retirees and things will spin out of control.

More reading:
- How will the human race survive low birth rates?
- Europe, East and West, wrestles with falling birthrates
- Why We Want You to Be Rich - Donald Trump & Robert Kiyosaki (this is a really good read, especially for people who believe that government will help them through retirement -- which is a misguided belief)

___________________
This is trance...
Jose Amnesia - The Eternal (Pulser Remix) / Chicane - Saltwater / Photon Project - Illumination / Gouryella - Tenshi / Altitude - Altitude (SHOKK Remix) / Rank 1 - Airwave / The Thrillseekers - Synaesthesia (En Motion Mix)

Europe is probably just reaching homeostasis with thier population...at least with the current technology. (not that i know alot about this subject or anything)