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| quote: | Originally posted by MrJiveBoJingles
I found it pretty surprising.
What do you think about the idea that we've just seen an instance of the Bradley Effect? |
Oh how glad I am that you asked, because this seriously made me lol earlier today.
| quote: | The Tom Bradley Effect, or Explaining Obama's Huge, Throbbing Gap
Lee Stranahan | Bio
Why was there such a big difference between Barack Obama's New Hampshire pre-election poll numbers and the actual vote?
Some suggest it was 'The Tom Bradley Effect' --and since some suggest it, now every news talker on the TV is throwing around the phrase 'Tom Bradley Effect.' So it's a good idea for you to be able to use it properly in conversation so you can sound as smart as the people on the TV.
Wikipedia defines the 'Tom Bradley Effect' as "a phenomenon which has led to inaccurate voter opinion polls in some American political campaigns between a white candidate and a non-white candidate. Specifically, there have been instances in which statistically significant numbers of white voters tell pollsters in advance of an election that they are likely to vote for the non-white candidate, but those voters exhibit a different behavior when actually casting their ballots."
This is potentially important and interesting, but not as much fun as going over to Wikipedia and changing the definition of the 'Tom Bradley Effect' to "a phenomenon which leads to an airline terminal being named after you," or just making up your own joke. Try it, you'll see!
Why would New Hampshire voters tell phone pollsters they were going to vote for Obama?
One explanation is obvious. Everyone knows that pollsters typically employ intimidating sounding men with deep voices and who often start calls by asking, "Are you the chief whitey all up in your hizzy?"
Perhaps the problem was that the pollsters framed the question about Obama thusly: "You ARE voting for Barack Obama, right?" and would often repeat the question over and over with increasing emphasis on the word "ARE" until they got the answer "yes, sir."
What not many know, however, is that 95% of these intimidating deep-voiced men who make pollster phone calls are actually 22-year-old women from Bangalore who learned to speak English by watching Ice-T on Law & Order: SVU. The other 3% of the callers are actually Ice-T himself, and the other 2% are the dude who asked Pinto and Flounder if he could dance with their dates in the road trip sequence of Animal House.
Another possible explanation is the difference between the voting process in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Voting for a Democratic candidate in the Iowa primaries is done in a caucus--ironically, a process that has a lot in common with the way Republican politicians like their religion. It's done in a very public, overly complex process that none of the participants seem to fully understand, but that lets everyone know where you stand politically.
Voting for a candidate in the New Hampshire primaries is done by ballot--ironically, a process that has a lot in common with the way Republican politicians like their sex. It's done secretly, in a booth, where your neighbors might be creeped out if they knew who you were really punching a hole in.
I think you've learned enough for now. |
But seriously, somebody should chop Hillary as a dj or something.
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