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George Smiley
Supreme tranceaddict

Registered: Jan 2004
Location: 9 Bywater Street, Chelsea, London
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| quote: | Originally posted by ********
Dude if you didn't know half a city has been taken. It ain't a brink, it is the real thing. But it is lebanon so it is like a new quarter. |
No I think it would be the "real thing" if non-state factions on the anti-Syria side started fighting with Hizballah. What happened yesterday could be described more accurately as either terrorism or rebellion, albeit on a very low level. And so far it has only involved the army (ie the state)
| quote: | | You must understand there is Hezbollah, and there is Lebanon.. both have militant arms and have widespread support, they generally share land more or less, but since the south the UN came in Hez needs a place to call their own - and lebanon is easier to deal with than the UN. |
Not sure what point you're trying to make here? Lebanon has an army, not militants. Within Lebanon there are militant groups, of which Hizballah are one. Also, no, the UN in not more difficult to deal with than "Lebanon" (I assume you mean the national army) as the UN force is minimal and very restricted in what it can do (Hizballah would wipe the floor with the in a second)
| quote: | | What else are they going to do now that they can't attack Israel? Soccer? |
What's that supposed to mean?
| quote: | | What lebanon needs is a president, and I think the west will be a little upset with Nasrallah. |
Nasrallah can't be President - the President must be a Maronite Christian
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May-10-2008 09:36
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jerZ07002
Supreme tranceaddict
Registered: Dec 2006
Location:
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| quote: | Originally posted by George Smiley
the President must be a Maronite Christian |
that's interesting. A country that is increasingly becoming more muslim, it can only have a christian president.
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May-10-2008 14:54
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George Smiley
Supreme tranceaddict

Registered: Jan 2004
Location: 9 Bywater Street, Chelsea, London
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| quote: | Originally posted by ********
Well to say the least you are taking a very western view.
I'd like to clarify some things-
Members of any military are Militant -
see definition of word not slanted propaganda to attack not fascist totalitarian states attacking grass roots movements -
Militant means
# Fighting or warring.
# Having a combative character; aggressive, especially in the service of a cause |
Come on man! You're just back tracking and it's obvious!
When people use the term "militant" they are usually referring to non-state groups, not to state aparatus. If you meant to say "army" in your first post say so, otherwise you're confusing the army with all the various non-state militant groups in the country
| quote: | | I disagree I still beleive the French and other nations are better trained and have better equipment and support than the Lebanese Army. If this is not the case let me know because I've seen the Lebanese equipment, and I've seen the UN's Expeditionary Force Nations equipment and I think that they are far more formidable and better trained than the Lebanese army. |
The UN isn't there to fight (or even defend). I don't think they have a mandate to enter into any combat situations, if they do, they certainly aren't manned/equipped to do so. They are there primarily as an observer mission. This isn't like the UN forces in Bosnia that were peaceenforcers. They won't become involved in ANY fighting that happens in Lebanon. They might have some nice weapons (ie guns that actually fire) but they lack the numbers to stand up to any of the militias or the Lebanese (or indeed Israeli) army
| quote: | Also - no the Lebanese President does not need to be Maronite.
That is part of the problem - when you always have a marontite president and a sunni PM obviously the Shiites are going to feel oppressed. It is religious discrimination and institutionalization of religion with the state. It is against UN fundamentals of religious tolerance and the premise of Free Democracy |
Until there is a new agreement signed then the President of Lebanon will always be Maronite Christian. The National Pact agreed by all parties at independence states this (altho it is "unwritten", that might confuse those used to American style "written" constitutions but I'm British and our whole constitution is "unwritten" so I am aware that unwritten constitutions are perfectly legally binding).
Altho I completely agree that this system is maybe not so democratic, but then Lebanon is an exception and there needs to be some kind of safeguards in place to prevent one sect gaining control of everything or we'd never see the end of civil war there.
I think the perfect scenario would be years of political reconciliation where all the groups began to see themselves as Lebanese first and foremost, then maybe it wouldn't matter which sect was elected to which positions. However, there are too many meddling outside influcences - from Israel and America, to Syria and Iran - to allow things to simmer down right now...
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May-12-2008 08:31
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George Smiley
Supreme tranceaddict

Registered: Jan 2004
Location: 9 Bywater Street, Chelsea, London
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Re: Re: Lebanon on brink of civil war?
| quote: | Originally posted by shaolin_Z
Well, that was a predictable consequence of Israel's recent insanity. I'm a bit curious about what makes you think it'll turn in to civil war. Just a simple power vacum? [a serious question btw] |
Well I didn't say it would escelate to civil war! It's just that when a militia group takes over an oppoisition groups stronghold and neighbourhoods, you fear there might be an escelation of violence. Over the weekend, Hizballah clashed in the mountains with Jumblatt's pro-government Druze forces (this group were one of the major players of the civil war). However, the army has deployed there and hostilities appear to have stopped for the time being.
The country is basically split into two groups (very generally speaking) between pro and anti government (unlike during the civil war when the country was split into many many groups). The anti-government include Hizballah, Amal and Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (which enjoys support from around 70% of the Christians in Lebanon). Then the pro-government (March 14 Alliance) include the Druze, Sunni Muslims and the remainder of the Christian parties (plus others)
During the civil war, Hizballah generally kept its nose out, but now it's the major player in hostilities so who knwos what will happen?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mi...ast/7395421.stm
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May-12-2008 08:58
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