http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ap_poll_presidential_race

quote:

WASHINGTON – The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch. The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord. Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.

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Outlier.

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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._obama-225.html

All depends on what poll you're looking at. I guess we'll find out in a little less than two weeks.

Fuck that, it's going to be a landslide for BO.

I think the idea of the dead cat bounce is a relevant one here:

quote:

A dead cat bounce is a figurative term used by traders in the finance industry to describe a pattern wherein a spectacular decline in the price of a stock is immediately followed by a moderate and temporary rise before resuming its downward movement, with the connotation that the rise was not an indication of improving circumstances in the fundamentals of the stock. It is derived from the notion that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce

Any traction by McCain this weekend has already proven largely irrelevant given the larger trend of separation.

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Translation: WOA GUYS LOOK AT THIS POLL! The race is tightening, its so close! Pay attention to our coverage on this then listen to our report on a two legged dog at 10.

wow how the fuck can this race be this close? fuck is wrong with some of the people down there?are they lacking logic and common sense?

I just cant believe McCain has that many supporters with all his bullshit and lies and that **** of a VP of his.

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I really dont follow polls that much. But if Mccain is able to pull out PA from Obama, it is fair to say that Mccain will be the next president of the US. As you know, the GOP hasnt won PA in decades. PA has its own history in presidential election, according to the polls Obama has double digit leads. But many analyst in the PA region have disregarded that notion and they have Mccain-Obama neck to neck, Obama to their numbers has an edge between 3-4 pts+

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quote:

Originally posted by Krypton College tuition should be free, so should healthcare.

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Originally posted by LatinLover I really dont follow polls that much. But if Mccain is able to pull out PA from Obama, it is fair to say that Mccain will be the next president of the US. As you know, the GOP hasnt won PA in decades. PA has its own history in presidential election, according to the polls Obama has double digit leads. But many analyst in the PA region have disregarded that notion and they have Mccain-Obama neck to neck, Obama to their numbers has an edge between 3-4 pts+

Do you have links to those numbers? I'd love to take a peek.

McCain will need a lot more than PA, since he's on track to lose Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia (Bush states in 2004). Ideally he would have won Michigan too, but I think they backed out there prematurely.

I could see McCain picking up Florida and Ohio, but I think Pennsylvania is fast becoming a long-shot.

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quote:

Originally posted by HardTranceProd http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ap_poll_presidential_race

An outlier, and a misleading one at that. That claims to be a poll of "likely" voters, which is essentially an arbitrary determination (see here). The "registered voter" model from that poll has Obama up by 5, which would still put it at the low end of poll-leads for Obama. If you want to talk outliers, let's talk about the +14 Obama got in the Pew poll yesterday.

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Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov I could see McCain picking up Florida and Ohio, but I think Pennsylvania is fast becoming a long-shot.

The McCain campaign abandoned sensible electioneering for "Hey, that idea is just crazy enough to work!" electioneering quite a while ago (see Palin, campaign suspension etc.). They don't have too many better paths to victory at the moment, but the idea that they can flip PA just by spending more money there (when they've already spent fully 16% of their funds there) is pretty fucking insane. It's throwing good money after bad, and it's money they'd be better-off spending in VA, NC, MO and other genuine toss-up states. In any case, though, I think it's more or less out of McCain's hands right now. He needs a gamechanger, and given that he's already played all his game-changer cards (see Palin, campaign suspension etc.) he needs it to come from outside his campaign.

Barring a dead girl / live boy scenario, I just don't see that McCain has any paths to victory at the moment.

VA's not a tossup state. It's "communist country" now.

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Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov VA's not a tossup state. It's "communist country" now.

Perhaps, but that probably has much to do with the fact that McCain seems to have basically given up on it (he's spent as much money in Michigan - which he's notionally pulled out of - over the past 2 weeks as he has in Virginia) and I can't see any way he can get to 270 without it. I know he's springing leaks all over the map right now and that it's going to be difficult to contain them all, but his money is surely far better spent in VA than it is in PA, NH or any of these other long-shots that he's currently wasting money on.