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| quote: | Originally posted by gmilf
links for the ignorant please, is it coming up on the keyhole or is this just more speculation from 6 years ago? could you also summarize the torino impact scale for other english majors? thank you |
It wouldn't be passing through the keyhole until 2029, which would set up a date of April 13, 2036 for its collision with earth (or until Bruce Willis fucks that asteroid's shit up). They've changed the odds a bit over the past couple years. NASA apparently puts the odds of it passing through the keyhole at about 1 in 250,000.
The torino impact scale is basically like the Richter Scale is for earthquakes more or less, except that it is predicting the probability of an impact with earth, rather than the measured effect of it. It goes from 0-10, and is color coded with White being 0, Green being 1, Yellow being 2-4, Orange being 5-7, and Red being 8-10. The scale also takes into consideration the size of the object, the extent of damage it could theoretically do if it did hit earth, and also the priority of which their orbits should be monitored.
Apophis at one point was at Yellow level 4 for a short time, which broke the record for the highest level reached by any previously recorded near-earth asteroid. Its current level is a good ol' White level 1, so probably no need to worry, but Ben Affleck might want to clear his schedule for April 13, 2036 just in case.
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