A 'world event' is similar to an outline of a fictional novel. Ideas in the outline are in a certain sequence and have certain hierarchical relationships with surrounding ideas. Similarly, order and hierarchy are the structural determinants of the world we live in.




Each node in the historical tree of wars are almost identical. Most nodes have an origin—precedent, purpose, and momentum —

quote:

A Russian intelligence-gathering ship has been operating off the U.S. East Coast and near the Gulf of Mexico for the past month, the Pentagon said Thursday. “We are aware that the Russian ships Viktor Leonov and Nikolay Chiker are currently operating in waters that are beyond U.S. territorial seas but near Cuba,” said Lt. Col. Tom Crosson, a Pentagon spokesman. “We respect the freedom of all nations, as reflected in international law, to operate military vessels beyond the territorial seas of other nations.” The Leonov is an intelligence gathering ship outfitted with high-tech electronic spying gear. The Chiker is an ocean-going naval tug that has been accompanying the spy ship on its mission. Pentagon officials suspect the ships were part of a spying operation since March against the U.S. nuclear missile submarine base at Kings Bay, Ga. and other U.S. military facilities

http://freebeacon.com/national-secu...ating-near-u-s/

quote:

UNITED NATIONS (AP) -- Ukraine's deputy foreign minister said Friday he fears an imminent Russian invasion. "We have the information we are in danger," Danylo Lubkivsky told reporters at the United Nations. He spoke as an official in Ukraine confirmed that pro-Russian forces had detained a team of military observers with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. The official said the team would be released after further investigation. Lubkivsky said 20 members had been taken and called it shocking and unprecedented. "We demand to release hostages," he said. Tensions have spiked as Russia increases military exercises along the Ukraine border. Lubkivsky called it a "very dangerous development" and demanded that Russia withdraw its troops.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/UN_UNITED_NATIONS_UKRAINE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-04-25-15-42-55

quote:

Following the incident there were fears that the situation had taken a sinister new turn when Germany said it feared a group of military observers operating in eastern Ukraine had gone missing. Officials said they could not contact the delegates from the Organisation for Security Cooperation in Europe. The Ukrainian military helicopter exploded at a base near the eastern town of Kramatorsk on Friday after being hit by a rocket-propelled grenade, officials in Kiev said. The helicopter was hit in the fuel tank and exploded. "An army Mi-8 helicopter has exploded at the Kramatorsk aerodrome," the defence ministry in Kiev said in a statement. The chopper was on the ground when it was targeted and that the pilot managed to escape but sustained injuries.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...taking-off.html

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Last edited by Lagrangian on Apr-26-2014 at 04:30

World war 3 isn't going to happen no matter what Russia does in the ukraine. It might make their relations with europe a bit shakey but no one seriously wants a military intervention.

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The only way WWIII breaks out is if Russia takes Ukraine, at least the south from the Russian border to Moldova. This would make the new members of NATO really freaked out and then all sorts of bad stuff could go down (from the not as bad as it could be break up of NATO to an invocation of Article V of the NATO charter, which would draw the US and allies into a shooting war with Russia).

People need to realize though this is a legitimate crisis, the worst since probably the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. It isn't a joke.

Ain't gonna happen with all the nukes aimed everywhere. This is no different than the USA invading Iraq.

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world war 3 isn't gonna happen.

you may now resume watching porn.

People underestimate the power dynamic that exists between Russia and the new NATO border states (which are all former Soviet Bloc/Pact countries).

The situation right now is a lot more unstable than really at any point in the cold war, at least treaty wise.

Russia is currently calling NATO's bluff, and I think Putin has the balls to push it to the limit.

Also remember the Black Sea is a place where the US and Russia came to blows, even up into the late 1980s, with multiple Soviet ships ramming US ships in the Black Sea. That area has the potential for a shooting war to start easily if the US brings naval forces into there (not to mention Turkey controls the Bosphorus strait, and that's always been a contentious issue with Russia, as it limits their Black Sea fleet from accessing the Med.)

Russia has been obsessed with the Black Sea since at least the 18th century. WWI is, in many ways, attributable to Russia trying to control it completely. This isn't going to lead to WWIII, neither side will launch nukes, but there could very well be some fighting in Europe. Impossible to say it's guaranteed to happen or it's guaranteed to not happen. Really depends on how much Putin wants to push, and how strongly Europe will agree to punish him.

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No one ever wants to launch nukes... But when backed into a corner things get tense. Also Russia still has a formidable chemical weapons supply, despite their "efforts" to destroy them all, like the US did.

If there is a shooting war in Europe between anyone other than Ukraine and Russia it is a shit show of epic proportions and I'd be looking into purchasing some 1 million SPF sunscreen because the forecasts could get incredibly sunny.

Putin has chosen this corner. He knows how he can get out of it, without firing nukes. And the US is certainly not going to launch first. There could very well be a shooting war in Eastern Europe, but that doesn't necessarily mean that nukes will follow. If a war did break out, it wouldn't be on either Russian or American soil.

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I mean in a shooting war. That's when things get scary. Where do you chase the Russians to if you are winning? Do you chase them just to the old border? Do you push them back and really punish them? If you are Putin or his military commanders and NATO crosses into Russia, do you feel tempted to use tactical nuclear weapons to stop their advance if your forces are totally attrited and they don't appear to be stopping. What if the US stops and Poland and other nations with an axe to grind on Russia keep going?

Basically if the US and Russia start trading blows in a apparent and direct manner then all bets are off on what can happen. It'd be unprecedented, and basically the stuff cold war nightmares are made of.

What bothers me the most about this whole situation is that I don't really hold anything against anyone in these countries we go to war against. I'm not the kind of guy who loves everyone and thinks we should all hug each other but, seriously theres nothing for us to gain in Ukraine for 1 and for 2 no russian after did anything wrong to me. I'm sure many russians feel the same way about us, and i'm sure the majority of everyday citizens throughout the world don't like war. But it's us who have to bare the brunt of the agenda's of the politcal bigshot.

But for the sake of giving my two cents on the subject heres what I think. I don't know what you're media is telling you wherever you live but in america it has been made clear that Obama is afraid of Russia. Just look, it was okay for us to go into Iraq and afghanistan because they were weak and distablized from previous wars. We were even about to go at it with Syria but then Russia steps in and says no dont do that so we don't. Russia is about to move into crimea, and Obama threatens pitiful sanctions that would cripple a third world country but won't have any significant effect on a world superpower, Putin goes ahead takes crimea,Obama:more sanctions. Putin can light the world on fire and all we will do is threaten sanctions. It's a "lets compare cock sizes" type thing and Obama must not have a very big one. not saying that I want him to be more aggressive,I don't want him to do anything, I wanna face the problems we have here and stop pretending like we are still the Giant we were at the end of world war 2 and start to focus on rebuilding our economy instead of waving our dicks at everyone.

quote:

Originally posted by Joss Weatherby Basically if the US and Russia start trading blows in a apparent and direct manner then all bets are off on what can happen. It'd be unprecedented, and basically the stuff cold war nightmares are made of.

Yeh but the difference between now and the cold war is that in the cold war it was two super powers of competing ideologies competing for the people and minds of the planet. Right now it's merely a medium sized power causing trouble and expanding a bit. It's not even like the Russian economy has had massive growth lately. I'd be more worried about China's attempts at expansion as they're more of an actual threat.

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