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| quote: | Originally posted by Resnick
k now im confused, let me ask this example again
u have 1 red cup, and infinity blue cups
what is the probability of choosing a red cup?
is the answer dependant on a limit?
and im not trying to argue anything anymore, just wanna see if this has anything to do with the countable/uncountable inifinities (which i havent learned)
everyone feel free to comment |
The problem is that there is no such thing as "infinity" blue cups. However, we can represent this problem by using the set of integers, where the red cup represents some integer (say, zero), and the blue cups are all the other integers.
The probability of picking red is (exactly) zero. It does come from our knowledge of limits. If we had 1 red cup and x blue cups, then the probability would be 1/x. As you know, lim x->inf 1/x = 0. As has been pointed out, it doesn't make sense to say "but what is it when x = infinity" because there is no such number. However, knowing that the cardinality of the real numbers is "countably infinite," we can answer that the probability equals the limit, which is exactly equal to zero.
One problem many people have is when they say that "the limit approaches zero." This is incorrect. The limit doesn't approach zero; the limit IS zero (as the free variable x approaches infinity).
In the cups case, the probability of choosing any item of a finite set from an uncountably infinite one is zero. As noted above, though, this is different from the case of picking a rational from the reals. In this case, the probability of picking an item from a countably infinite-sized one from an uncountably-sized one is zero.
This last point has to do with the "measure" of a set. The measure of a particular interval is equal to the difference of its max and min elements. The probability of picking an integer from [1,2] out of [1,3] is
P(Picking something from [0,1] out of [0,2]) =
Measure [0,1] / Measure [0,2] = 1-0/2-0 = 1/2
The measure of any particular point, x, is x-x = 0. The measure of a countably infinite set (such as the integers or rationals) is actually zero.
P(Picking a rational from the real interval [0,2]) =
Measure (rationals) / Measure [0,2] = 0/(2-0) = 0
To make things weirder, there are sets of uncountably infinite size that also have measure zero (read up on the Cantor set).
Hope this helped.
Last edited by Flyboy217 on Oct-12-2003 at 02:03
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