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Lebezniatnikov
Stupidity Annoys Me

Registered: Feb 2004
Location: DC
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| quote: | Originally posted by DJ Eco
You know there's no way either nominee can clinch the nomination without it going to convention. The number's just don't add up. You want to talk about being nominated BY THE PEOPLE, admit the grim reality that if Michigan or Florida were allowed, Clinton would be on top. In no way is that Obama's fault, it was a fuck-up by the DNC in general. But to see Obama so adamant against a revote makes you wonder if he wants an election BY THE PEOPLE in the first place. |
Wow, where did you get that shaky math?
First of all, let's get this straight about Michigan and Florida - Obama isn't adamant about a re-vote - he was adamant about 1. not merely accepting the results as they stand (as Mark Penn in the Clinton campaign initially advocated for) and 2. about not having a vote that didn't also include provisional and absentee votes (which Mark Penn opposed from the start). Obama also pressed to have caucuses in both states under the argument that caucuses motivate the base and get people engaged in politics to a far greater degree - the point of the primaries in general anyway, yes?
The fact that the Clinton campaign has a far greater spin team led to Obama being vilified as an obstructionist, when in reality, both campaigns had proposals to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida.
Secondly, the idea that Clinton would somehow come out ahead in the popular vote by including Michigan and Florida is shaky at best. Sure she won both states... but that might have something to do with her being the ONLY democratic candidate on the freaking ballot in Michigan, and the only one who campaigned or took out ad buys in Florida! Obama never campaigned there (in deference to a request by the DNC for both candidates not to... a pledge Hillary did not live up to).
And thirdly, the delegate math does add up, and it will not go all the way to the convention even if it weren't decided by the delegates - just look at statements by Democratic leadership on that front (Pelosi, Reid, Dean, Kennedy, Gore, Emanuel, etc.) - even Hillary's advisor, Howard Wolfstein, made a comment about it being decided by delegates and not going all the way to the convention.
Check out the math here:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2.../303/401/493855
Based on the polling from just last week, Obama only needs to net 28% of the remaining superdelegates (a number he will far surpass) in order to mathematically clinch the nomination.
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Apr-18-2008 00:11
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DJ Eco
in yo mouf

Registered: May 2004
Location: Dirty Jersey
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| quote: | | Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov First of all, let's get this straight about Michigan and Florida - Obama isn't adamant about a re-vote....... Obama also pressed to have caucuses in both states under the argument that caucuses motivate the base and get people engaged in politics to a far greater degree - the point of the primaries in general anyway, yes? |
A caucus is a caucus and going to the polls is going to the polls. If Michigan and Florida were poll-states, then a revote should be done at the polls, simple as that. Have you looked at the turnout %'s for caucus states vs. poll states... I think the idea of a caucus is BS. If there were one here in Jersey, I wouldn't go and that sentiment is shared by older people as well as other people who don't have 3 hours to spend on election day. He, his campaign, and his supporters in Congress have shot down any possibilities of revotes because of "fraud concerns" and stuff like that. He then wanted a caucus instead. He later proposed a 50/50 split of Michigan's delegates...
| quote: | | Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov Secondly, the idea that Clinton would somehow come out ahead in the popular vote by including Michigan and Florida is shaky at best. Sure she won both states... but that might have something to do with her being the ONLY democratic candidate on the freaking ballot in Michigan, and the only one who campaigned or took out ad buys in Florida! Obama never campaigned there (in deference to a request by the DNC for both candidates not to... a pledge Hillary did not live up to). |
Obama spent 1.3 million dollars in Florida, but "didn't campaign there." It's public knowledge. Hillary never campaigned there, just went there after all was said and done. She's thinking further into the future as far as the November election, while Obama brushed off the Fla./Mi. numbers, totally disregarding the fact that this will come back to hurt him in November if he's chosen. But yeah... 1.3 million dollars went to Florida from his campaign, why? (http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/2/18/11351/1420) <- I've found this information very much elsewhere, but this is the first one to come up, for the sake of citing it.
| quote: | Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov
Based on the polling from just last week, Obama only needs to net 28% of the remaining superdelegates (a number he will far surpass) in order to mathematically clinch the nomination. |
Time and time again (not you, but other people), people criticize Clinton's bigger numbers with superdelegates as a slap in the face to the popular vote and voice of the nation. Now you are saying they will help Obama win. Would you agree with other Obama-supporters (in this thread even) that superdelegates are a load of crap, even if he wins because of them? Idk, just asking... The fact that they're so so so close (no matter how much pundits want her to step down), do you think superdelegates causing EITHER of them to win is a good thing? This election's been fucked since jump-street.
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http://thesoundofeco.com
Last edited by DJ Eco on Apr-18-2008 at 01:02
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Apr-18-2008 00:54
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