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| quote: | Originally posted by srussell0018
You're using this word "logic." I don't think you understand what it means. |
sorry i thought you were demonstrating to us your advanced methods of reasoning.
Anyone watching the 10:30 natural gas report this morning? I'm a terminal gas bear. i have an expectation of around 168 surprisingly that's the median.
If we get a number draw above 168, price should pop, otherwise a price drop.
results are posted here @ 10:30, price reaction is almost immediate
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
here are what the other analysts think:
11:47 27Feb13 RTRS-POLL-U.S. natgas storage seen down 167 bcf in weekly EIA report
* Withdrawal estimates range from 140 bcf to 179 bcf
* Median draw in poll is 168 bcf
By Joe Silha
NEW YORK, Feb 27 (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas inventories on
average are expected to have dropped by 167 billion cubic feet
last week, a Reuters poll of industry traders and analysts
showed on Wednesday.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its
gas storage data for the week ended Feb. 22 on Thursday at 10:30
a.m. EST (1530 GMT).
Utilities typically stockpile natural gas from April through
October, then withdraw stored supplies from November through
March to help meet peak winter heating demand.
The Reuters poll had 21 participants, with withdrawal
estimates ranging from 140 bcf to 179 bcf. The median draw in
the forecast was 168 bcf.
Storage fell by an adjusted 106 bcf during the same week
last year. The five-year average drop for the week is 118 bcf.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
said there were 199 heating degree days last week. That was 29
colder than the previous week, 24 colder than normal, and 56
colder than the same week last year.
Degree days, a measure of departure in the mean daily
temperature from 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 Celsius), are used to
estimate demand to heat or cool homes and businesses. They are
often weighted to reflect population differences in specific
states and regions.
For the week ended Feb. 15, overall storage fell by 127 bcf
to 2.400 trillion cubic feet. [ID:nEAP100L00]
The weekly stock draw exceeded market expectations for the
first time in four weeks and was viewed by some traders as
slightly supportive. Others noted it came in well below the
155-bcf decline seen during the same week last year and below
the five-year average drop for that week of 140 bcf.
Stocks are still relatively high at 361 bcf, or 18 percent,
above the five-year average.
((Storage graphic: http://link.reuters.com/mup44s))
The withdrawal trimmed the deficit relative to last year by
28 bcf to 242 bcf, or 9 percent below last year’s record highs
for that time. It also added 13 bcf to the surplus versus the
five-year average, leaving storage at 361 bcf, or 18 percent,
above that benchmark.
Stocks peaked last year at 3.929 tcf in early November, the
fourth straight year in which gas inventories headed into the
heating season at an all-time high.
A draw on Thursday at the Reuters poll estimate would
sharply widen the deficit relative to the same week last year by
61 bcf to 303 bcf, or 12.5 percent. It would also cut 49 bcf
from the surplus versus the five-year average, trimming that
total to 312 bcf, or 16 percent.
In the last four reports, total stocks fell 596 bcf, or 149
bcf per week, versus a 511-bcf adjusted drop for the same
one-month period last year and a 637-bcf five-year average
withdrawal for that period.
The NOAA said it expected 160 heating degree days this week,
three fewer than normal but 20 more than the same year-ago week.
Early withdrawal estimates for next week’s storage report
range widely, from 120 bcf to 160 bcf, versus a 92-bcf decline
during the same week last year and a five-year average drop for
that week of about 107 bcf.
Most analysts expect storage to end the heating season just
over 2 tcf, about 16 percent above average but 17 percent below
last winter’s record-high finish of 2.48 tcf.
The following is a partial list of forecasters in this
week’s survey. If forecasters gave a range, the midpoint was
used. Numbers in billion cubic feet (bcf).
Citi Futures – 171
Citigroup – 169
Credit Suisse – 176
Energy Management Inst – 140
enerjay LLC – 169
First Enercast – 169
FirstEnergy – 166
Gelber & Associates – 163
Guernsey – 160
IAF Advisors – 177
INTL FCStone – 167
Prestige Economics – 168
Price Futures Group – 160
Raymond James – 169
RideFar Energy – 162
The SMC Report – 167
Stephen Smith Energy – 164
Thomson Reuters Analytics – 173
Tradition Energy – 173
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