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Originally posted by Purple You become an alien after you die, not ghost.

And I thought your posts in MD were stupid...

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Last edited by woscar on Nov-13-2007 at 20:31

Has anyone ever looked at the Drake equation? It predicts the number of intelligent civilizations that might exist out there in the universe.

The Drake equation states that:


where:

N is the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which we might hope to be able to communicate;

and

R∗ is the average rate of star formation in our galaxy
fp is the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne is the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
fℓ is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point
fi is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life
fc is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L is the length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.

Considerable disagreement on the values of most of these parameters exists, but the values used by Drake and his colleagues in 1961 were:

* R* = 10/year (10 stars formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy)
* fp = 0.5 (half of all stars formed will have planets)
* ne = 2 (2 planets per star will be able to develop life)
* fl = 1 (100% of the planets will develop life)
* fi = 0.01 (1% of which will be intelligent life)
* fc = 0.01 (1% of which will be able to communicate)
* L = 10,000 years (which will last 10,000 years)

Drake's values give N = 10 × 0.5 × 2 × 1 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 10,000 = 10.

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I believe there are just too many stars and too much matter in the universe for us to be the only life. According to Drake, there should be 10 civilizations in the Milky Way. That's pretty far out.

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quote:

Originally posted by Krypton Has anyone ever looked at the Drake equation? According to Drake, there should be 10 civilizations in the Milky Way. That's pretty far out.

I've been meaning to post this and my thoughts on it for awhile. Every time this thread shoots back up to the top of the page I remember to post it and then get too lazy.

Anyway, I agree - the chances of intelligent life coexisting simultaneously in the universe are pretty slim at best. Not to mention that the variables imply a few other logistical difficulties. Ten is the number arrived at by Drake, but other scientists have used estimates that put that number at closer to one or two. The number itself doesn't imply that the civilizations arise simultaneously either - simply that over the course of the life of the Milky Way, approximately two civilizations capable of intelligent thought will exist. Whether or not the overlap is a separate issue not resolved by the equation. And even if they do exist concurrently, that doesn't resolve the issue of communication. At the rate of speed radio waves travel the galaxy, by the time waves sent by humanity at the advent of radio (Carl Sagan used the Berlin Olympics as the point of origination in 'Contact'), the human race will have died out long before the waves can reach halfway across the galaxy, be received, and be sent back. There's just too much empty space. So in all reality, if there is intelligent life, even in our own galaxy, they would never know that we are here until after we are gone. The likelihood that they already know we are here and have visited us is so incredibly remote as to be laughable.

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Perhaps alien spacecraft have the ability to bend space-time and travel much much faster? Think about it. If an object travels normally through space, its travelling basically on a flat plane. But if the object can bend spacetime, it can speed itself up just like a ball accelerating down a hill.

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Originally posted by Krypton Perhaps alien spacecraft have the ability to bend space-time and travel much much faster? Think about it. If an object travels normally through space, its travelling basically on a flat plane. But if the object can bend spacetime, it can speed itself up just like a ball accelerating down a hill.

Sure, maybe they can travel quickly, but the point is, how would they even know we are here when we don't have the capability to contact them? And who's to say that an intelligent lifeform elsewhere is MORE intelligent than we are? Odds are they aren't.

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Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov Sure, maybe they can travel quickly, but the point is, how would they even know we are here when we don't have the capability to contact them? And who's to say that an intelligent lifeform elsewhere is MORE intelligent than we are? Odds are they aren't.

Perhaps, their spacecraft have heard our transmissions. I don't think our signals have to reach all the way to their home planet. If they have spacecraft capable of transversing the enormous distances of space, then I'm sure these spacecraft would be able to listen in on signals and trace their origin from where they are.

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Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov And who's to say that an intelligent lifeform elsewhere is MORE intelligent than we are? Odds are they aren't.

that would solely (mostly?) depend upon the age of the galaxy in question i would think. if there's a planet similar to earth but 5 billion years older, then i would expect super-beings of energy like the vorlons

any race that is capable of contacting us now will obviously have evolved to a higher degree, at least in the sciences. and seriously, if we were ever "visited" by a craft capable of intergalactic travel, i'd be pretty scared about it. i bet any sentient lifeform in our universe will be every bit as selfish as we are. basically...rape time!

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Originally posted by Krypton Perhaps, their spacecraft have heard our transmissions. I don't think our signals have to reach all the way to their home planet. If they have spacecraft capable of transversing the enormous distances of space, then I'm sure these spacecraft would be able to listen in on signals and trace their origin from where they are.

Call me cynical, but count the number of "ifs" we are dealing with here.

IF there is a planet like ours somewhere in the universe capable of susataining life and IF there is actually life sustained and IF they exist concurrently with our own civilization and IF they are intelligent and IF our radio transmissions have reached them and IF they have developed technology to intercept those transmissions and IF the time it takes for us to transmit and them to receive is not greater than the actual length of either civilization (biggest if in my opinion) and IF they possess the technology to travel in space and IF they are able to trace the origin of our transmission and IF their technology allows them to bend space-time and arrive in our neighborhood immediately upon receiving our transmissions and IF they are content with spending years simply observing Earth through periodic fly-bys (even though they can travel space in minutes, they spend years observing???), then just MAYBE unidentified flying objects are actually alien spacecraft.


I'm sure I'm leaving out a few ifs still.

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quote:

Originally posted by Krypton Perhaps, their spacecraft have heard our transmissions. I don't think our signals have to reach all the way to their home planet. If they have spacecraft capable of transversing the enormous distances of space, then I'm sure these spacecraft would be able to listen in on signals and trace their origin from where they are.

Here is what Dr Steve Greer who is one of my fav researchers in this field has to say about how these crafts are able to travel such long distances from his "Hidden Truth Forbidden knowledge book:

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These civillizations have figured out the structure of space and time and non-locality. These extraterrestrila civilizations have technology-assisted consciousness systems as well as consciousness-assisted technology where there is an interface between mind and thought and a specialized physics and electromagnetism.And so when they communicate,the message is communicated from point A,say here on earth,back to a home planet,point B 1000 light years away,in real time.Thats because it has dropped out of linear space-time and has crossed over into this non-local aspect of the universe.This involves some very sophisticated physics but also encompasses the realm if thought and of consciousness. These civilizations are travelling through inter-steller distances and have mastered the science that involves consciousness,thought,electromagnetism and non-locality.

when I was reading this part I was like

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Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov Call me cynical, but count the number of "ifs" we are dealing with here. IF there is a planet like ours somewhere in the universe capable of susataining life and IF there is actually life sustained and IF they exist concurrently with our own civilization and IF they are intelligent and IF our radio transmissions have reached them and IF they have developed technology to intercept those transmissions and IF the time it takes for us to transmit and them to receive is not greater than the actual length of either civilization (biggest if in my opinion) and IF they possess the technology to travel in space and IF they are able to trace the origin of our transmission and IF their technology allows them to bend space-time and arrive in our neighborhood immediately upon receiving our transmissions and IF they are content with spending years simply observing Earth through periodic fly-bys (even though they can travel space in minutes, they spend years observing???), then just MAYBE unidentified flying objects are actually alien spacecraft. I'm sure I'm leaving out a few ifs still.

I think the universe is large enough that those ifs are quite possible.

Maybe they know that if they land here, they will have changed our world beyond anything else that has ever happened here. They might introduce new alien organisms that could be dangerous to us, or our organisms could be dangerous to them. Perhaps, the spacecraft aren't even manned by anyone, but by robots. A robot doesn't need food, water, an artificial atmosphere, etc. Perhaps that's why we havn't encountered alien beings, though some people say they have.

quote:

These civillizations have figured out the structure of space and time and non-locality. These extraterrestrila civilizations have technology-assisted consciousness systems as well as consciousness-assisted technology where there is an interface between mind and thought and a specialized physics and electromagnetism.And so when they communicate,the message is communicated from point A,say here on earth,back to a home planet,point B 1000 light years away,in real time.Thats because it has dropped out of linear space-time and has crossed over into this non-local aspect of the universe.This involves some very sophisticated physics but also encompasses the realm if thought and of consciousness. These civilizations are travelling through inter-steller distances and have mastered the science that involves consciousness,thought,electromagnetism and non-locality.

Perhaps alien spacecraft have the ability to bend space-time and travel much much faster? Think about it. If an object travels normally through space, its travelling basically on a flat plane. But if the object can bend spacetime, it can speed itself up just like a ball accelerating down a hill.

What if not only that, but these craft can actually rip holes in the space-time continuum? Then you can travel to the other side of the universe in an instant! Like digging a hole to the other side of the earth...

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Originally posted by Krypton I think the universe is large enough that those ifs are quite possible. Maybe they know that if they land here, they will have changed our world beyond anything else that has ever happened here. They might introduce new alien organisms that could be dangerous to us, or our organisms could be dangerous to them. Perhaps, the spacecraft aren't even manned by anyone, but by robots. A robot doesn't need food, water, an artificial atmosphere, etc. Perhaps that's why we havn't encountered alien beings, though some people say they have. Perhaps alien spacecraft have the ability to bend space-time and travel much much faster? Think about it. If an object travels normally through space, its travelling basically on a flat plane. But if the object can bend spacetime, it can speed itself up just like a ball accelerating down a hill. What if not only that, but these craft can actually rip holes in the space-time continuum? Then you can travel to the other side of the universe in an instant! Like digging a hole to the other side of the earth...

Well if we are going to keep dealing with hypothetical here, a one that is quite probable is this one: What if you are all wrong? I am quite sure that statistically it is more probable that all the alternative knowledge people that claim aliens have visited us and/or impregnated our women and/or built all the marvels in the world and/or advanced are ancient civilizations are wrong. The chances of all the ifs that Lebezniatnikov posted are satisfied are quite slimmer than the chances of all this being wrong. And since you guys seem to only one deal with probabilities and chances, I would think it is quite compelling to think that all this is hypotheses are wrong.

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quote:

Orbax At that point you kind of crossed the rubicon and you might as well lay siege to Rome