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SniFFleS
Suspended User



Registered: Jan 2004
Location: Toronto

quote:
Originally posted by Skipper
haha, if I weren't neck deep in level 2 material right now maybe! what's causing you issues?


Inventories, Cash flow analysis.

I wish I took more accounting through the years.

Old Post May-15-2009 12:42  Canada
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estates
tranceaddict in training



Registered: May 2009
Location: here

hey guys..

Do any of you know where i can trade international markets online? I'm with Questrde at the moment but they wont allow you to trade on line. You'd haver to call it in. same as Etrade.


Thank you

ps. been playing the fluctuation of these for the pass month and a half with great results.

HBAN (NGS)
BAC (NYE)
LULU (NGS)
F (NYE)
FITB (NGS)

Old Post May-15-2009 16:59  Canada
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Skipper
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: May 2002
Location:

quote:
Originally posted by SniFFleS
Inventories, Cash flow analysis.

I wish I took more accounting through the years.


Absolutely know LIFO and FIFO, they are key level 1 concepts and appear at level 2. I recall there being more questions than I expected on conversion between the two.

Old Post May-15-2009 17:41  Canada
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tvmann
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Jul 2003
Location: near Vancouver, Canada

Anyone know how to hedge a US stock account against gains in Canadian currency, using something tradable on US stock exchanges?

Not that I need to do it right now, but a couple of years ago I mostly had US stocks and it was a big pain that a lot of the gains would have been eaten up by rises in the Canadian dollar (if I sold out and converted the US$ to Cdn$ that is).

Old Post May-15-2009 17:50  Canada
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DigiNut
You kids get off my lawn!



Registered: Dec 2002
Location: Toronto, Self-proclaimed Centre of the Universe

quote:
Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit
I Still in RIM at 85.50 and losing as its 83 now. I also put in WTN (Western canadian coal). Analysts give it a target price of 2.51 for share. I got in at 1.25 earlier today and its sitting at 1.34 right now.

Its undervalued according to its p/e relative to other companies in its industry. Annuals last years were crap but the last 3 quarters have shown positive earnings and good revenue.

anyone have an opinion on this?

Coal prices KOL (ETF) are rising as well. this is also another good indicator.

I've been in WTN long from the low $1s. My favourite's still Patriot, it's been so volatile that you could almost day trade it, but each time it seems to rebound. Huge short interest though which scares me a bit. I think coal in general is great right now, but that could change at any time.

Oil took a dive today with options expiry, as predicted. I think it's still got another 5-10% to go down.

My favourite play this week was buying FAZ $5 calls for, I think, $40 each and selling them for $115 each. Too bad I went in with such a small amount of money. I know people like to day-trade those instruments but options are way more interesting, actually sort of fun.

Oh, and as for currency hedges, it's pretty hard for retail investors but there are ways:
- Borrow USD (if you can) and/or use your margin on a USD trading account to invest in Canadian securities
- Buy futures contracts on U.S. securities (most likely an index fund)
- Buy CAD futures (in units of $100K... good luck)

There may be more that I don't know about...


___________________
My party schedule:
2009-02-21 - DJ Attention @ I'm So Popular
2009-06-18 - DJ Annoying @ People Need To Know Where I'll Be
2012-11-32 - DJ Insufferable ɸ Or At Least the Stalkers I Complain About
2048-06-66 - Spastic & Whocares Although I'm Actually Flattered
9999-45-81 - Tweaker Gimp I Probably Won't Even Go To This But I Have To Make Sure I Fill Up All The Available Space Here

Old Post May-15-2009 21:09  Canada
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Nrg2Nfinit
ItaloDiscoAddict



Registered: Sep 2001
Location: Ottawa

yeah coal took a hit today dunno why. perhaps something to do with the materials sector. Some Companies reporting their annual losses i'm guessing.


WTN looks promising though. I'd hold til at least mid or beginning june. speculation might cause share prices to rise and if your gutsy enough, hold them til after the Q4 release.

Insiders have bought and are holding the stock as well which is a good sign. Analysts also say the market price is valued at 2.51 per share. I'm assuming this is relative to other companies in the industry. I can only speculate thats how they come up with that number.

I'll look into patriot as well. Coal prices should be on an increase, which is good so long that our canadian dollar doesn't pound the american one into the ground.

Old Post May-15-2009 22:33 
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Skipper
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: May 2002
Location:

quote:
Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit

Insiders have bought and are holding the stock as well which is a good sign. Analysts also say the market price is valued at 2.51 per share. I'm assuming this is relative to other companies in the industry. I can only speculate thats how they come up with that number.


You mean analysts have a target price of $2.51/share?
I don't know much about coal company valuation methodologies but I would think the valuation is based on some sort of price to cash flow multiple, based on both relative valuation and historical trading ranges for the company.

Old Post May-16-2009 10:12  Canada
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Nrg2Nfinit
ItaloDiscoAddict



Registered: Sep 2001
Location: Ottawa

quote:
Originally posted by Skipper
You mean analysts have a target price of $2.51/share?
I don't know much about coal company valuation methodologies but I would think the valuation is based on some sort of price to cash flow multiple, based on both relative valuation and historical trading ranges for the company.



yes target price (excuse my terminology).

Old Post May-16-2009 14:36 
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DigiNut
You kids get off my lawn!



Registered: Dec 2002
Location: Toronto, Self-proclaimed Centre of the Universe

Financials down = markets down = energy down = coal down, most of the week. Only solar and shipping did well yesterday. I wouldn't worry about WTN specifically just yet.

If you're looking at Patriot, note the >15% short interest. Make up your own mind whether that means it's overbought or about to get short-squeezed. It's definitely a risk.

This was the first week since March where the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ all went down. Maybe it's a trend reversal - maybe Skipper's right and it's a bear market rally - I'm hoping next week is a recovery. Actually I sort of agree that it's a bear rally, but I don't think it's run out of steam yet.


___________________
My party schedule:
2009-02-21 - DJ Attention @ I'm So Popular
2009-06-18 - DJ Annoying @ People Need To Know Where I'll Be
2012-11-32 - DJ Insufferable ɸ Or At Least the Stalkers I Complain About
2048-06-66 - Spastic & Whocares Although I'm Actually Flattered
9999-45-81 - Tweaker Gimp I Probably Won't Even Go To This But I Have To Make Sure I Fill Up All The Available Space Here

Old Post May-16-2009 15:27  Canada
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Nrg2Nfinit
ItaloDiscoAddict



Registered: Sep 2001
Location: Ottawa

Hrmm i'm looking at partriot right now and it seems they jumped big after their Q1 profits and only dipped down a bit. I dont know what kind of news can bring them up even higher at this point. They still are a bit undervalued relative to the industry so that can be taken a a good sign. I might give BNN a call next week and get an opinion on WTN. See what they have to say lol.

I'm not too sure what you mean by the >15% short intrest. Maybe you could point that out for me.



On a side note. I was reading up on naked shortselling and how its illegal pretty much everywhere except canada. Basically shortsellers skip the borrowing process, or havent confirmed a borrowing. Then they get the "phantom shares" sold (as they are not aquired yet). Profits are then collected after returning the lower price shares to the original shareholder. I think what ends up happening is that the buyer, who gets the sold phantom shares, has to settle to get the shares at a lower price as by the time the borrowing goes through, the share price has already gone down and the transfer occurs at a lower share price.

Is this actually what happens? or are the original borrowed shares sold filed as a failure to deliver? meaning the transaction is canceled and the market is diluted as the shortseller doesnt have to return his profits from the sale.

Or is a "buy in" called where the buyer from the shortseller aquires the lower price shares and the responsiblity lies on the shortseller to make up the difference between the lower and higher price shares ?

Its a bit confusing as i don't know the regulations here in canada with regards to this and if failures to deliver actually occur.

Old Post May-16-2009 16:25 
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DigiNut
You kids get off my lawn!



Registered: Dec 2002
Location: Toronto, Self-proclaimed Centre of the Universe

That's a good point, but also keep in mind that Patriot is down from a 52-week high of $82 a share. So from my perspective, the question is not what can bring them higher, but why were they so low in the first place? Peabody, the company that they split from, also had a 52-week high of about $88, and they're at almost $30. Higher EPS, but not enough to explain the gap.

The short interest is simply the number of shares being sold short. People generally look at the short interest ratio, which is shares short as a percentage of shares float (i.e. shares available for public trading). So a 15% short interest means that 15% of all publicly-traded shares have been sold short. A more normal short interest is 5% of float or less (MSFT 1%, RIMM 3.5%, TD 2.5%, BTU 4.5%, you get the idea).

My understanding of naked shorts (somebody correct me if I'm wrong) is that for a short, in order to settle the trade, you need to provide the shares, same way you need to provide the cash when buying. If you don't, it's failure to deliver, and normally your trade gets canceled. I think with naked shorting, you obviously never deliver, but are allowed to hold and eventually close your position without ever settling (or settling at some totally arbitrary time), which is a bit similar to to free-riding in the U.S. which is also banned, unless you're a PDT.

That's the legal argument, anyway - you're opening and closing a position without ever settling it, and that's why it's banned in the U.S. But we don't really have that rule in Canada, or at least it's not exactly the same - it seems to be mostly at the discretion of the brokers, who would have to accept liability for the trade.

So yes, a naked short does dilute the shares and create downward pressure on the stock. I think that's kind of the point. Naked shorting could theoretically be used to do a bear raid and manipulate the price of the stock downward, but it's also the only real protection against pump-and-dump scams that don't have enough shares float for covered shorts. It seems that most of the people who truly despise naked shorts are CEOs of microcap biotechs and other OTC penny stocks, and it's no wonder why, every week there's a new pump-and-dump.

Also, people talk about naked shorts as though people can short infinite amounts, but in reality the amount you can short is limited by your margin. I don't short at all but I know that for a 50% marginable stock you need to maintain a 150% excess margin at all times - that's 100% of the short sale proceeds and 50% of the share price. A lot of the hype about short selling, including infinite naked shorts, unbounded losses, that sort of thing, isn't really an issue in reality because of margin requirements.


___________________
My party schedule:
2009-02-21 - DJ Attention @ I'm So Popular
2009-06-18 - DJ Annoying @ People Need To Know Where I'll Be
2012-11-32 - DJ Insufferable ɸ Or At Least the Stalkers I Complain About
2048-06-66 - Spastic & Whocares Although I'm Actually Flattered
9999-45-81 - Tweaker Gimp I Probably Won't Even Go To This But I Have To Make Sure I Fill Up All The Available Space Here

Old Post May-16-2009 18:27  Canada
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Nrg2Nfinit
ItaloDiscoAddict



Registered: Sep 2001
Location: Ottawa

fair enough.. but who takes responsibility for a failure to deliver?

The original buyer from the short seller requires their shares. So they put a "buy in" notice from the short seller to which a broker responds. The broker then has to buy the shares at whatever price they are at at the time and the short seller is responsible to pay the difference in the share price from the original selling and the purchase from the broker.



here is an example that i found:

quote:


Here's an example. Say Dan bought 10,000 shares on XPY for $1.00 each from John. John claimed to borrow the shares from FRD but did not. When Dan does not get his shares, he puts in a buy-in notice. John does not answer this buy-in notice which means his broker, Ben must pay. Dan purchases 10,000 shares from Ben at $1.10 per share. John will be forced to pay this difference.


from

http://ezinearticles.com/?Buying-In...iver&id=1580516




So if a buy in doesnt occur basically the buyer from the shortseller is out of luck without their shares that they paid for? This doesnt make sense. Is this what happens in canada?

Maybe skipper can help us out with this.

Also the idea about margin and having 100% extra funds to cover that margin doesn't really give resolution to the matter unless a buy-in is declared. This is since someone has to be accountable for the borrowed shares being sold to the buyers. This obviously is a big deal in a non liquid market setting.

So What your saying Digi is that essentially the short sellers will be held responsible for a failure to deliver and must pay back any difference in the share price if the borrowed share sold is given to its recipient after the completed shortsale. (This is where the 100% extra margin comes into play)

So in the end Naked shortsellers are held accountable in the states. So what happens in canada?

Old Post May-16-2009 19:49 
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TranceAddict Forums > Local Scene Info / Discussion / EDM Event Listings > Canada > Canada - Toronto & Southern Ont. > Any Day Traders on TA?
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