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Anyway, back from the math lab:| quote: | Originally posted by Lira
Jokes aside, now that I've had a full round of matches to prod the model with a stick and listen for screams and growls, here's what it is currently insisting is reality:- Argentina - 25%
- France - 15.425%
- A Newcomer - 13.54%
- Spain - 13.345%
- England - 7.885%
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Turns out... my model had successfully picked the final four individually (I added the "newcomer" umbrella term as an aggregate of small percentages, as I, a puny human, didn't believe four former champions would make it as it's been 36 years since it last happened). It's funny how, more often than not, the numbers pick the right result and I pick a fight with the algorithm 
This is not to say there were no upsets (I still can't believe Norway beat us despite having conceded the most goals out of any team in the round of 16), but the maths mathed reasonably well. And, I'm sure Argentina only beat Switzerland because of Embolo and because, well, they wear Adidas. Anyway, my model is now saying that the odds of each team winning the championship are:- Argentina: 33.0%
- Spain: 29.8%
- France: 22.3%
- England: 14.9%
It can't be right. The Opta Supercomputer, with far more resources than me, picks England versus France in the final, whereas my model picked Argentina and Spain to go through. My model picked the winner 82% of the time in the knockout round¹ so... let's see how this goes 
¹Just double checked. The ones it missed were pretty much the ones that ended in penalty kicks (it can't get draws right) and... the Brazilian elimination, as we've been the greatest enemies of my own spreadsheets 
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Last edited by Lira on Jul-12-2026 at 21:33
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