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Originally posted by Krypton The Georgian military is being routed on all fronts. The army is demoralized, and are fleeing Gori in disarray. This is not a retreat. It is a rout. Why hasn't the Georgian military trained in asymmetrical warfare, especially with a potential adversary like Russia... http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/ne...icle4509692.ece

I'll be damned ... if this is indeed happening, since the Russian media is not saying one single word of this, then this is a political suicide for Russian government. Its over for them, and NATO will seize Russian ass and Ukraine will without a doubt join NATO in a nanosecond. I pray that this invasion of Georgia is not true!

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Originally posted by Magnetonium I'll be damned ... if this is indeed happening, since the Russian media is not saying one single word of this, then this is a political suicide for Russian government. Its over for them, and NATO will seize Russian ass and Ukraine will without a doubt join NATO in a nanosecond. I pray that this invasion of Georgia is not true!

I don't think Ukraine will join NATO that easily. they have a big Russian minority that Putin/Medvedev can use to give them a whole lot of trouble. Plus they get all their gas from Russia. Besides, this comes as a warning to NATO not to interfere too much within Russia's sphere of influence. Ukraine has to play things very carefully on this one.

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Originally posted by Magnetonium I'll be damned ... if this is indeed happening, since the Russian media is not saying one single word of this, then this is a political suicide for Russian government. Its over for them, and NATO will seize Russian ass and Ukraine will without a doubt join NATO in a nanosecond. I pray that this invasion of Georgia is not true!

Well, the Ukrainian government doesn't have enough domestic support to join NATO.

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Originally posted by DrUg_Tit0 I don't think Ukraine will join NATO that easily. they have a big Russian minority that Putin/Medvedev can use to give them a whole lot of trouble. Plus they get all their gas from Russia. Besides, this comes as a warning to NATO not to interfere too much within Russia's sphere of influence. Ukraine has to play things very carefully on this one.

Something inside told me even when the conflict was about to flare up few nights ago - that Russia was going to lose one way or another. Here are the scenarios I envisioned:

Option #1.

Dont send any of its military directly, let Georgia go on a genocidal campaign and demolish South Ossetia once and for all. Cry about it, compain to the world media and governments, yet get its votes blocked in the UN trying to stop the bloodshed. All sympathetic to Russia leaders in the region swiftly and strongly turn to NATO, seeing that Russia is powerless and afraid to engage's NATO's interests. Lose an important Soth Ossetian ally and buffer zone and its remaining influence in the region and say hi to NATO, while gaining worldwide solidarity and public support (which means jack shit, useless). Everyone around the world would call Russia good, and NATO and Georgia evil, Georgia downplays everything, wipes quietly the cleansing and prevents media from documenting the massacres of Ossetians civilians. Few media people slip in, document it, send shockwaves throughout the world - oh, big friggin deal, everyone forgets about it the next day and celebrates the successful Olympics. Abkhazia then sees Russian weakness, succumbs to Georgian threats, disbands its forces with a guarantee of wide autonomy and other compromises, pro-Georgian leader comes in and all remaining Russian influence and signs are pushed out once and for all. Ossetians becomes disillusioned with Russia.

Option #2.

As present, Russian military steps in to protect its peacekeepers and Russian citizens, hits some Georgian civilian targets, which get amplified ten times in the Western media. Eventually it overwhelmingly gets blamed for agression against Georgia, Russian reputation ruined, Medvedev's worldwide ratings plummet, basically the remaining presidential term is plagued by leaders criticising and sidestepping Russia as a result of this conflict.

Or worse - Russia expands its military campaign deep into Georgian territory, fails to defeat the main Georgian military targets it aims for, under casualties retreats back to South Ossetian positions. The world calls Russia a dictatorship, Russia gets equalled to Soviet Union, Stalin, colonial power, return to authoritarianism, etc. etc. etc. and all the horrible political consequences of those things.

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And Saakashvilli is not going to fall as a result of this conflict either way. He will exploit the conflict as Russian agression and how he managed to "save Georgia" from total Russian annihilation. NATO will strengthen in Georgia and they will most certainly become a member under the excuse of protecting against Russian "imperialism". Then Georgia will slowly work its way back with NATO's control to regain all lost provinces and eventually push Russia out step by step.

Lose-lose situation for Russia. Like, seriously, what did Russia have to gain out of this conflict? What did those 70,000 South Ossetians had to offer to Russia? Any mediuum sized Russian town has populations bigger than that. No strategic importance, no allies to win, troops and military equipment to lose, damage reputation. Is the conflict really going to make Georgia unworthy for NATO? Not quite - it will become a better reason for NATO to "accept" Georgia. I am telling you, either way, one way or another, the media and Western governments will exploit this conflict, make Russia a horrible boogeyman and pressure Russia out of the region once and for all. And sadly enough, with Georgia being the actual agressor, agent provocateur in the whole conflict.

I am telling you, this conflict was very well-planned and it had fully envisioned Russian military response, even Pentagon has admitted to that. They have it all planned out. They've beaten Russians this way before, and will do it again. Sadly Russia will continue to be pushed back again and again using different methods for one simple reason: there's noone on Russia's side, really. Its the world vs. Russia, so no matter what they do in this conflict, they lost even before firing the first dam shot.

Thats my harsh feelings on this issue. There, I spilled it all out. I wont even bother reading over what I just typed up.

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Last edited by Magnetonium on Aug-12-2008 at 01:26

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Originally posted by Krypton Well, the Ukrainian government doesn't have enough domestic support to join NATO.

Who gives a shit about that - did Czech public and Polish public vote in support of the defense missile shield? And did the NATO leaders decide to scrap the project? Hmmmm, maybe you can refresh my memory ... but you should know this by now - public support is meaningless when you have a boogeyman like Russia.

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I really think you missed the most likely option, that Russia marches into Tbilisi and gets Saakasvili out...the way Georgian forces are running away, I'm guessing a week at max.

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Originally posted by DrUg_Tit0 I really think you missed the most likely option, that Russia marches into Tbilisi and gets Saakasvili out...the way Georgian forces are running away, I'm guessing a week at max.

Wanna bet? Its almost impossible that Russian tanks will be rolling over Tbilisi. Just unrealistic. Science fiction. Medvedev's not that crazy.

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Originally posted by Magnetonium Wanna bet? Its almost impossible that Russian tanks will be rolling over Tbilisi. Just unrealistic. Science fiction. Medvedev's not that crazy.

Well..Bush does that sort of thing and nobody really seems to mind that much. Maybe Medvedev concluded he might try to copy that approach...

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Latest reports are Georgian forces are preparing defenses around Tbilisi, with tanks, and dug in positions. If they had enough SAMs they could render the Russian air force ineffective, but they don't so the Russians have overwhelming air superiority.

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Judging by the video footage in Tskhinvali on Russian television, Georgian forces got their arses kicked - lots of destroyed Georgian military hardware everywhere.

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The Russians probably bombed them with impunity..

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