We all need to face the music. Unfortunately, facing the music really means years of self-imposed recession/depression while we pay down all of the years of consumption that we have pulled forward with all of our debt. Debt = Spending tomorrow's income today.

quote:

Originally posted by Shakka We all need to face the music. Unfortunately, facing the music really means years of self-imposed recession/depression while we pay down all of the years of consumption that we have pulled forward with all of our debt. Debt = Spending tomorrow's income today.

Yup..I'm already hearing people complaining that the US is going to end up footing $50-60 billion of this bailout..as if we actually have the money to do it. The reality is that CHINA is footing every penny of our share, and they are actually bailing out the USA every single day by buying our debt. If they decided to stop, we would instantly be Greece #2.

The Betapeg Financial Model 2.2 can now do macro-economic analysis. It also allocates a portfolio of stocks, ETFs, and option contracts, to profit or protect in any market condition. Yes, I said ANY, market condition. I am testing the portfolio and have allocated as follows.

30% in BND
10% in APOL
10% in FSLR
10% in MYGN
10% in TNDM
10% in XOM
8% in SPY put options
7% in GSG put options
3% in GSG call options
2% in SPY call options

Straight from the model.



I lost money and learned never to lose again. This is how I won't lose to newb option trades. Unfortunately I need at least $50,000 to really use my model to its fullest potential.

Wow..15% of your portfolio in options. Your either going to win huge or risk blowing yourself up.

quote:

Originally posted by Shakka Wow..15% of your portfolio in options. Your either going to win huge or risk blowing yourself up.

20% :-) We'll see. I'll post the results as I get them.

quote:

Originally posted by Ben Twilly the grandmasters Krypton and Comrade stalin

I'm willing to wager their portfolios are identical

quote:

Originally posted by Ben Twilly Thank you everyone for this great informative threads. I was wondering if you dont mind me asking the total value of your portfolios and which asset classes you have ? I would especially like to hear from the grandmasters Krypton and Comrade stalin

Long Stock
Calls/Puts on Index ETFs; SPY and GSG
Calls/Puts on Commodities ETFs
Long/Short on Commodities ETF in which no options are available.

*Calls and puts are types of options contracts. Calls go up with the market. Puts go up against the market. My real portfolio is worth about $10,000 and most of it is in my own company stock (Betapeg LLC: www.finance.com).

quote:

Originally posted by Ben Twilly Thank you everyone for this great informative threads. I was wondering if you dont mind me asking the total value of your portfolios and which asset classes you have ? I would especially like to hear from the grandmasters Krypton and Comrade stalin

Just cutting down to $300 CN, getting my last cash out while it's still there (pulled out $16,000 before the 2007 shit hit the fan).

I've moved the remaining pocket change away from mutual funds investing in the US and ones claiming to be 'international' but who's performance over the course of the crisis shows pretty clearly that they didn't bother reading anything not written in English.

If you don't pay bills in US$ don't leave your savings in the currency

If all goes well over the comming months I've got an eye for Brazilian government paper. High interest, an undervalued currency, and a location I want to do business with in the next 3 - 5 years.

Other than that I'm also maintaining a stance that venture capitalisim is the way that money will be made over the next decade in North America. Since my capital is on the low side, I'm on the working end, building a company and trying to incorporate. Viewed as high risk for most but I've done a little reading and feel that it's lower risk than putting it into financial markets over influenced by sentiments of those who don't read.

quote:

Originally posted by Ben Twilly Thank you everyone for this great informative threads. I was wondering if you dont mind me asking the total value of your portfolios and which asset classes you have ? I would especially like to hear from the grandmasters Krypton and Comrade stalin

PS. Look for thoughts from lots of different people. I personally like Sorros, Buffet, and Branscome as people who have done well because of some of thier ideas about what to do with money.

The first hedge is a success. I am up .77% while the S&P 500 is down .72% as of 3:04PM EST.

I have puts on:
SPY (S&P500 index ETF)
GSG (Production-weighted Commodities ETF)
SLV (Silver ETF)
GLD (Gold ETF)

I'm short:
JJN (Nickel ETF)
PPLT (Platinum ETF)

I made 1% while the S&P500 fell .51%. My hedging strategy worked awesomely today. There are a few kinks I'm working on but this model is going to be a beast. Here are the securities portfolio consists of. Know that I am short JJN and PPLT. All other stock is long. I have just a little bit of margin used up and I am following as closely as possible the recommendations of my model.

APOL Stock
BND Stock
FSLR Stock
GLD Jul 10 129.00 Put
GSG Oct 10 19.00 Call
GSG Oct 10 32.00 Put
JJN Stock
MYGN Stock
PPLT Stock
SGG Stock
SLV Jan 11 29.00 Put
SPY Jul 10 109.00 Call
SPY Jul 10 124.00 Put
TNDM Stock
UGA Oct 10 44.00 Put
UNG Jan 12 5.00 Call
XOM Stock