Insightful stuff indeed, seems like Putin is intent on keeping Chechnya as a strongly autonomous republic, as long as it is still answerable to Russia in the end. On the other hand the Chechens want complete independence without any affiliation to Russia. Don't see how that can be solved. Many of the other Muslim republics in Russia have accepted autonomy but Chechnya is not accepting likewise.

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Originally posted by NYCTrancefan Insightful stuff indeed, seems like Putin is intent on keeping Chechnya as a strongly autonomous republic, as long as it is still answerable to Russia in the end. On the other hand the Chechens want complete independence without any affiliation to Russia. Don't see how that can be solved. Many of the other Muslim republics in Russia have accepted autonomy but Chechnya is not accepting likewise.

Personally I believe if Putin ever lets Chechnya go it will just open up a can of worms and all the other autonomous republics will start making loud appeals for independence. The disintegration of the Soviet Union sparked a large amount of once firmly subdued russian regions to desire their own independence. Chechnya is basically serving its purpose as a model for those other regions to see what will happen to them if they start to disobey Moscow.

Now, back to the topic of Russians becoming a great power. There are several rather improbable occurances that should happen for such an event to come. First and most obvious, Russia must stabilize itself and ensure a huge economic growth. Secondly, the US must become destabilized and have it's economy weakened in order for Russia to catch up. Now, if those two things happen, then Russia may attempt to regain its old soviet territories and renew it's now shattered army. If such actions won't cause too much of an upheval in the world, Russia will once again become a superpower.

It's obvious why this scenario is unlikely. Even if Bush manages to wreck the US economy, Putin would have to do such a brilliant job to get Russia back on track that would make him the most intelligent leader ever recorded in the history of the world.

But there is another option Russia can do, although that one does not depend on Russian interests only, and that is forming the alliance between Russia, Germany, and France. Those 3 countries together could oppose both US and China, but it would really require huge efforts on all three fronts to form such a union.

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Originally posted by anuneventrade Russia won't be coming to world power any time soon. After the Cold War, many countries have taken precautions towards Russia, considering how it originally sided with Germany in WWII, but that was the rest of the worlds fault for pushing them in that direction by denying them alligence. As grand of a country as it is, too many countries would form alliances against them if they made any sort of military strategy to expand once again in Europe. I doubt that would happen again. Russians look at history, and with the failure of an allegiance in WWII, I highly doubt that they are going to trust any Germans for an alliance.

I think your going back way too far. In the modern world Russia has been accepted. There is not great rivalry between NATO and Russia the exact oposite, the US and Europe just get closer and closer to Russia it's mutally benifical. The only possible stumbling block could be lack of internal stability genrated by Putin and protracted terrorism issues(and associated commitments). What I mean by that is like when he put the richest man in the country in jail. That made investors seriously edgy.

But Russia and the Russian people are NEVER to be underestimated people easily forget Russia's inherant inovation which is coupled to strength and grit, but not just for the sole purpose of inovation. For example the Soyuz rocket system it's robust and mass produced and works nearly every time (it's more reliable than US sytems). Now that Russia isn't in the Cold War and not in a space race in both it did arguably very well, better in many cases, than the whole of the west. Russias subs are better than UK and arguably US ones and as for avation well inovation and greatness all round really. Now it's coperating and trading with us only internal problems can hold it back and I don't think that can last, it's a developed nation, it's democratic. In the end that'll sort itself out, might take some time but it will. It has huge resourses and in the new world it's too big a market and bank of resources to anything but a major power. Seriously compare and contrast it to little Britain or France or Germany...... or all combined if you like and then see if you still think it isn't a major power even today.

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In 1991, when Dudayev proclaimed Chechnya an independent country, he didnt see all this coming.

I doubt he's thinking much. He was killed while using his cell phone in 1996 when Russian airforce homed in out on the phones signal and blew him to bits.

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What I mean by that is like when he put the richest man in the country in jail. That made investors seriously edgy.

The ordinary russian though thinks its an excellent start. People like Khordokovsky didnt get rich by working hard and coming up with good ideas. They stole their fortune by obtaining state assets at bargain basement prices. In the early 1990's the Russian government in desperate need of money decided to follow international advice supported by Kremlin advisors who were strongly influenced by the theories of western market liberalism and privatised state assets.

So many people with influence in the Soviet Union, factory managers and the like bought up all the shares. They got the money to buy these companies because they were 1)sold at ridiculously low prices 2)the support of the Russian mafia who armtwisted russian banks into loaning their "friends" money.

After the end of the Soviet Union Russia could best be described as a Kleptocracy, government by criminals with rampant corruption and mismanagement.

When Putin came into power it is rumored he called in all the oligarchs into a meeting and told them they could keep their wealth if they kept out of politics. Khordokovsky obviously didnt get the message because he bankrolled political parties in opposition to the government. He stuck his neck out and got it chopped off. It sends a clear message to the rest of them and the russian people that now their will be order and the government not the businessmen/criminals who are in charge.

I never looked at it from that point of view before. I still think it was a short term shock but now I can see that in the long run it was a smart move and could could lead to better less corupt people in power. Would you agree and how likely do you think that is? By the way can I just say I think it's amazing the level of disscussion on this topic.

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Russia is moving towadrs a more authoritarian governement on the political spectrum. With putin arresting business men and taking over the media. He also annouced orthodox christianity is a part of Russia.
France and Germany also promised him if he dissagreed with the war in Iraq, media coverage of the war in checnya would be minimal. Witch it has, I know I havn't heard anything about chechnya in the last 2 years.

Also amnesty international's website is accusing putin of racism and promoting attacks on foreign students. Because of many skinhead beatings and the russian police refusing to stop this from happening. Also my Russian freinds in Montreal are very patriotic and all want to go back to Russia.

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Originally posted by LouisLaBelle Russia is moving towadrs a more authoritarian governement on the political spectrum. With putin arresting business men and taking over the media. He also annouced orthodox christianity is a part of Russia. France and Germany also promised him if he dissagreed with the war in Iraq, media coverage of the war in checnya would be minimal. Witch it has, I know I havn't heard anything about chechnya in the last 2 years. Also amnesty international's website is accusing putin of racism and promoting attacks on foreign students. Because of many skinhead beatings and the russian police refusing to stop this from happening. Also my Russian freinds in Montreal are very patriotic and all want to go back to Russia.

Well Putin was head of the KGB, so that makes sense that it is moving towards top down rule. plus the bureaucracy present under the Soviets, allowing the Thieves World to do what it wants, in govt and economics|

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Originally posted by rupert I doubt he's [Dudayev] thinking much. He was killed while using his cell phone in 1996 when Russian airforce homed in out on the phones signal and blew him to bits.

Of course, we know that. What I meant, is that he wasn't stupid and he thought he could get away with independence after Soviet Union broke apart. He was a very well educated person with history in KGB and Soviet military. I wonder what Chechens think today - would it have been better if they stayed a Russian republic in 1991, or be what they are today. Look at any ex-Soviet republic - under the Soviet rule, they complained about lack of freedom (of speech) and independence, though they had pretty much everything else, like stability, peace, education, work, etc. SO WAS IT ALL WORTH IT? WOULDN'T IT HAVE BEEN BETTER TO WAIT AND LIVE THROUGH THE GORBACHEV SYSTEM (which he never finished)??

It was all Brezhnev's fault, he was the idiot who ruined the Soviet economy and didn't know a thing about politics (pretty much) during his rule in 60s and 70s. He should've gave more power to the people, let them start and run their businesses back then. This is what killed the Soviet economy: all their industries produced very well (regulated by the government, which often didn't know much about the industries - run by people who had nothing to do with industry often enough), so a lot of the produce went to waste In other places there were bad shortages because of the government's mismanagement. For example, there was a low production level set for producing wheat to the farmers, so there were HUGE shortages of bread as a result, because the government mismanaged that industry. In another example, the tractor inductry made too many tractors in one year, just like the government told them to, and many of the tractors went to waste. You see ...

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Originally posted by Magnetonium Of course, we know that. What I meant, is that he wasn't stupid and he thought he could get away with independence after Soviet Union broke apart. He was a very well educated person with history in KGB and Soviet military. I wonder what Chechens think today - would it have been better if they stayed a Russian republic in 1991, or be what they are today. Look at any ex-Soviet republic - under the Soviet rule, they complained about lack of freedom (of speech) and independence, though they had pretty much everything else, like stability, peace, education, work, etc. SO WAS IT ALL WORTH IT? WOULDN'T IT HAVE BEEN BETTER TO WAIT AND LIVE THROUGH THE GORBACHEV SYSTEM (which he never finished)?? It was all Brezhnev's fault, he was the idiot who ruined the Soviet economy and didn't know a thing about politics (pretty much) during his rule in 60s and 70s. He should've gave more power to the people, let them start and run their businesses back then. This is what killed the Soviet economy: all their industries produced very well (regulated by the government, which often didn't know much about the industries - run by people who had nothing to do with industry often enough), so a lot of the produce went to waste In other places there were bad shortages because of the government's mismanagement. For example, there was a low production level set for producing wheat to the farmers, so there were HUGE shortages of bread as a result, because the government mismanaged that industry. In another example, the tractor inductry made too many tractors in one year, just like the government told them to, and many of the tractors went to waste. You see ...

Heh, I kinda agree with you on that one, although Gorbachew wasn't really the sharpest knife in the drawer either. From Stalin to Putin there really wasn't a very capable soviet leader. They either mismanaged the economy, or they couldn't manage to keep the country under control, like Gorbachev and Yeljtsin.

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Originally posted by DrUg_Tit0 ... Gorbachew ...

Hahaha, I like that, very funny. You gotta admit that he was a bright leader, and he was trying to do the right thing, but the hardcore Soviets would not let him fix the country his way, and everything collapsed. All the glory, power, stability and peace went down with Soviet Union the moment it disintegrated ...

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Originally posted by Magnetonium Hahaha, I like that, very funny.

Hehe, actually it was a typing error

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You gotta admit that he was a bright leader, and he was trying to do the right thing, but the hardcore Soviets would not let him fix the country his way, and everything collapsed. All the glory, power, stability and peace went down with Soviet Union the moment it disintegrated ...

Yes, he was trying to do the right thing as he did act in good faith, but he did it too hastily and the end result was disasterous. The perestroika should have been done in a way the chinese are transforming their country now, slow and controled. If a regime is built on a tight rule and limited personal freedom, sudden introduction of a free society causes anarchy. I believe that he listened to the words of westerners in an overly gullible fashion and that he deluded himself into thinking that a sudden change of the system will suddenly bring the long expected growth and prosperity. Instead, it caused the complete collapse of the system. With a little more finesse on his side, the Soviet Union would now be an existing and possibly prosperous country. Instead, it is a group of weak and corrupt dictatorships.

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