hehe, that wasn't much

Edit: oh sorry, read "The State of the 2004 US Economy with Weekly Updates" now =)

very nice ..

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Palm Trees > Pine Trees , Sand > Snow

Week Ending April 4

RELEASE: GDP - Final [Hungary]: 3.6%
FIRST TAKE: A very positive release. GDP growth in Hungary accelerated to 3.6% during the fourth quarter from 2.9% during the third. Domestic consumption is moderating, slowing imports growth, and exports advanced at an impressive 17% pace from a year ago during the fourth quarter, thanks mainly to a strengthening euro zone.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Spain]: 1.8%
FIRST TAKE: Spanish industrial production rebounded smartly in February, posting the largest year-over-year gain since mid-2003. This joins many other positive economic metrics for the Spanish economy.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Venezuela]: 100.4%
FIRST TAKE: Venezuela’s manufacturing industry remains in deep trouble. Industrial production declined by 3.8% in January compared to December, as government intervention, political instability and price controls which effectively ration imports hamper industrial growth.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Sweden]: 2.0%
FIRST TAKE: The Riksbank elected to cut the main repo rate by 50 basis points to 2.0% at its April monetary policy meeting.

RELEASE: Consumer Confidence [France]: -22
FIRST TAKE: French consumer confidence rose to -22 in March from -23 in February. However, the reliability of the data remains weakened by the change in methodology implemented in January.

RELEASE: Retail Sales [Germany]: 98.4
FIRST TAKE: Retail sales in Europe’s largest economy remained weak in February as consumer confidence continued to be undermined by stubbornly high unemployment and uncertainty emanating from the government’s reform agenda.

RELEASE: Reuters Euro-Zone Manufacturing PMI [Euro Zone]: 53.5
FIRST TAKE: The manufacturing recovery showed some signs of life in the euro area during March. The Reuters purchasing managers’ index beat expectations with a gain to 53.3 during March from 52.5 during the previous month. Growth in output and new orders improved, and the rate of job losses in manufacturing decelerated.

RELEASE: Unemployment Rate [Euro Zone]: 8.8 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The euro-zone rate of unemployment held steady in February. According to Eurostat, the European Union statistical agency, the unemployment rate for the month of February registered 8.8%, the same as the previous month. The unemployment rate did plateau at 8.8% for twelve consecutive months. As has occurred in the U.S., the euro zone is experiencing a jobless recovery that keeps the jobless rate elevated, even as output improves.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Euro Zone]: 2.00%
FIRST TAKE: In a widely expected move, the ECB held monetary policy constant today. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided that the minimum bid rate on main refinancing operations (repo rate), the central bank’s main policy instrument, would be held constant at 2.0%. The euro-area economy is slowly recovering, and inflation is below the central bank’s target ceiling. Monetary policy is unlikely to change anytime soon.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Russia]: 106.1
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production growth continues to accelerate in Russia. Production advanced 6.1% above its year-ago level led by higher output of chemicals, petroleum, industrial machinery and building materials. Advancement was broad based; only four of the sixteen sectors reporting showed declines.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Finland]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Finnish industrial production edged up by 0.2% in February from the previous month. Increases in mining and manufacturing output offset a decline in energy supply output. Production growth remains muted by lackluster exports.

RELEASE: Employment Situation [France]: 9.6 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The French unemployment rate remained 9.6% in February as the number of unemployed fell 5,000.

RELEASE: GDP [India]: 10.4%
FIRST TAKE: The Indian economy, Asia's third-largest, expanded at a dramatic double-digit 10.4% in the December quarter from a year earlier. The gain was powered predominantly by the manufacturing and farming sectors.

RELEASE: GDP [Ireland]: 2.7%
FIRST TAKE: Ireland’s gross product advanced at a 2.7% year-over-year pace in the fourth quarter. Exports, fixed investment and consumption spending all helped to propel the economy forward toward recovery.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Poland]: 5.25%
FIRST TAKE: The Polish central bank once again chose to leave the reference rate, its key monetary policy instrument, unchanged at 5.25%. Monetary policy officials have left interest rates untouched for the last nine meetings, pleased that the Polish economy is growing at a satisfactory rate without significant growth in inflation.

RELEASE: Business and Consumer Survey [Euro Zone]: 96.0
FIRST TAKE: Business and consumer sentiment in the euro zone was virtually flat in March for the third month in a row. Industrial and consumer confidence were unchanged, while construction and retailer confidence improved marginally. Europe’s recovery is not going anywhere in a hurry.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Greece]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Production in Greece came in weaker than expected in January. Output of utilities continues to be strong, in preparation for the Olympics, but manufacturing growth is lagging. Were it not for the Olympics, the Greek economy would have very little going for it, and growth would be similar to Portugal’s 1%, rather than the better-than-4% rate that is expected this year.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Portugal]: -4.5%
FIRST TAKE: Production rebounded in Portugal during February. According to the National Institute of Statistics, the Portuguese statistical agency, total output increased 1.1% during February from January on a seasonally adjusted basis, which puts the year-ago growth rate at -4.5%. Manufacturing output was considerably weaker. The Portuguese economy will not muster much in the way of a recovery until activity picks up in the rest of the currency union.

RELEASE: Consumer Confidence [United Kingdom]: -3.0
FIRST TAKE: U.K. consumer sentiment disappointed again during March. According to research carried out by Martin Hamblin GfK on behalf of the European Commission, the headline consumer sentiment index for the U.K. fell to -3 during March from a reading of -2 in February. Most of the decline represents a pullback in consumers’ inclination to make major purchases. We attributed last month’s decline to the prospect of higher interest rates, while this month’s decrease may have been affected by the Madrid bombings. Retail activity is still strong, however, and should remain so through the end of the year.

RELEASE: Business Survey [France]: 104
FIRST TAKE: French business confidence held steady at a 34 month high of 104 in March. The February value was revised up by 1 point. Rising demand and orders, especially for exports were offset by increasing concerns about the outlook.

RELEASE: Nationwide Housing Price Index [United Kingdom]: 16.7%
FIRST TAKE: U.K. house price growth was firm during March. According to the Nationwide survey of house prices, the price of the average U.K. property rose 1.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in March. Base effects cause the year-to-year rate of growth to slide to 16.7% from 17.1%. The first quarter showed strong growth in house prices from the last three months of 2003 across most regions. Rising incomes, solid job growth, and expectations of interest rate rises later in the year are buoying house prices early in 2004.

RELEASE: Survey of Business Confidence: 35.2%
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence has remained largely unchanged since early this year, although it is up substantially from a year ago during the middle of the Iraq war. The improvement in confidence over the past year has been driven primarily by better sales. Hiring and investment plans have improved in response, and businesses even appear to be finally adding office and other space. Confidence has leveled off so far this year largely due to less positive expectations regarding the economy’s performance six month hence. Confidence remains strongest in North America in Asia and among high-tech, healthcare, and real estate firms. It remains weakest in Europe, Latin America and among retailers, the travel industry and in government.

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Retro ...

Data does not look good for Europe as a whole this past week. Looks like we have declines in Eurozone statitistics particularly Germany ... deosn't look like they're breaking out of their slump any time soon. Canada also didn't have very good labor data. I think I'm going to start including China, Japan, and India data in the Euro thread. Seems to me that people would be interested in this data since they are all very strong contributors to the global economy.

Week Ending April 11

RELEASE: Industrial Production [China]: 19.4%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in China increased at a blistering pace in March, increasing fears that the economy has not slowed appreciably contrary to the expectations of the People’s Bank of China, which has tightened credit of late. Industrial production was up 19.4% year on year in March, compared to the 16.6% posted in the first two months of the year. In the first quarter industrial production was up 17.7% year on year compared to 17.2% in the first quarter last year.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Japan]: No change
FIRST TAKE: The Bank of Japan, pleased with recent developments in the Japanese domestic economy, today elected to retain its pre-existing monetary settings.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [France]: 0.8%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in France rose 0.8% in February, slightly more than reversing the upwardly revised decline in January. Agriculture was the only major industry to have declining production and energy production led the gains.

RELEASE: OECD Composite Leading Indicators [OECD]: 123.2
FIRST TAKE: According to the OECD, moderately strong growth will be observed for the global economy in the next six to eight months, but the rate of acceleration in economic activity is leveling off. The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the OECD area rose by 0.2 points for the month of February after a 0.4 point gain in the previous month. The six-month rate of growth fell for the second consecutive month after rising in nine consecutive months. This pattern was widespread across the constituent economies. This is typical of economies that are moving past the initial stage of recovery and into more even growth.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Turkey]: 15.6%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in Turkey was up 15.6% on a year-ago basis in February, up from the 7.3% growth experienced in January. On a monthly, non seasonally adjusted basis, industrial production was down 8.7% from January.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Czech Republic]: 7.1%
FIRST TAKE: According to the Czech Statistical Office, industrial output adjusted for work days increased 7.1% in February on a year-ago basis. Strong gains in durable goods manufacturing is driving overall growth.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Germany]: -0.7%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in Europe’s largest economy continues to struggle. After a sharp upward revision for January bringing growth to 0.5% compared to the previous month, industrial production contracted by 0.7% in February compared to January. Thus, given this volatility it is too early for talk of a sustainable recovery.

RELEASE: Labor Force Survey [Canada]: 7.5 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The March labor force survey showed a decline of 13,000 jobs, which was the second consecutive monthly decline. The unemployment rate crept up by 0.1% to 7.5%

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [United Kingdom]: 4.00%
FIRST TAKE: As expected, the Bank of England held policy constant today. At the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep its target for the repo rate—the central bank’s monetary policy instrument—steady at 4.00%. First quarter growth will come in softer than expected, though there are still many reasons for the BOE to continue with its program of gradually tightening monetary policy. We look for a 25 basis point increase at the conclusion of the May meeting.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Denmark]: -0.6%
FIRST TAKE: Denmark remains weak. While industrial production in the country grew 1.0% from January, it declined 0.6% on a year-ago basis.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Netherlands]: -2.4%
FIRST TAKE: The manufacturing sector in the Netherlands returned to contraction in February, erasing its tepid January gain. Industrial production dropped a stark 2.4% in February. Weak demand from abroad was largely to blame for this. The Netherlands remains mired in economic weakness.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Norway]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Output data turned for the better in Norway during February. According to Statistics Norway, total industrial output increased 0.3% during February from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Manufacturing output ended a string of four consecutive monthly declines with a gain in February. Production of consumer, capital and intermediate goods all increased during the month. The turnabout is a welcome sign, but one should wait for three or four more before breaking out the bubbly, as demand is still weak in major export markets.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Sweden]: -0.6%
FIRST TAKE: Sweden’s industrial production slipped in February, falling 0.6% from the previous month. However, activity on a year-to-year basis remains firmly in positive territory.

RELEASE: Employment Situation [Germany]: 44,000
FIRST TAKE: Unemployment in Germany remains stubbornly high. The number of jobless increased by a seasonally adjusted 44,000 in March compared to February. The unemployment rate based on seasonally adjusted data increased from 10.3% in February to 10.4% in March.

RELEASE: GDP [Russia]: 7.6%
FIRST TAKE: Russian real output growth surged ahead in the fourth quarter, rising 7.6% on a year-ago basis. Growth for the full year 2003 came in at 7.35%.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [United Kingdom]: -0.6
FIRST TAKE: The U.K. manufacturing recovery lost ground during February. According to the Office for National Statistics, total U.K. production fell 0.6% during February from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Moreover, last month’s gain was revised to a decrease, which pushed growth on a year-ago basis down to -1.2% against expectations of a slight increase. The decrease in output was widespread. If this weakness is extended, the expected interest rate increase by the BOE in May could be put off until later in the summer.

RELEASE: Reuters Euro-Zone Services PMI [Euro Zone]: 54.4
FIRST TAKE: The expansion in the euro-zone's service sector continued in March, but at a slower pace than the previous month. According to the Reuters service sector PMI report, the headline activity index fell to 54.4 in March from 56.2 in February.

RELEASE: Retail Trade [Euro Zone]: -0.8%
FIRST TAKE: Euro-zone retail sales slumped 0.8% in February after a 2.3% jump in spending in the first month of this year. Yearly sales growth was positive for the second straight month.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Hungary]: 12.0%
FIRST TAKE: The central bank of Hungary cut its two-week deposit rate by 25 basis points to 12% today. Today's rate cut follows a 25 basis point rate reduction two weeks ago.

RELEASE: Survey of Business Confidence: 36.2%
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence has taken on a bit brighter hue in early April. Confidence has remained largely unchanged since the beginning of the year, but it has tilted higher in the past two weeks. Sales continue to improve and businesses say they are hiring more aggressively. Confidence is strongest in North America and Asia and among high-tech, healthcare, and real estate firms. It remains weakest in Europe, Latin America and among retailers, the travel industry and government. Lack of pricing power is businesses’ most significant concern.

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Retro ...

Week Ending April 18

RELEASE: Employment Situation [United Kingdom]: 2.9 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: Another blockbuster employment report from the U.K. According to the Office of National Statistics, employment jumped to a record high in March, while unemployment fell to a record low. The British are working longer, for higher wages, and still more jobs are being created. All of this without any help from manufacturing. We expect the next hike in interest rates by the Bank of England to occur in May.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Euro Zone]: 1.7
FIRST TAKE: The March report on euro-zone inflation came in slightly higher than anticipated. According to Eurostat, the E.U. statistical agency, consumer prices increased 0.7% during March from February, which puts the year-ago rate of inflation at 1.7%, after a 1.6% gain in the previous month. Core price pressures held steady at an elevated rate.

RELEASE: GDP [Euro Zone]: 0.6%

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Belgium]: 1.8%
FIRST TAKE: Belgium's goods-producing sectors are still in the midst of a recovery, as the industrial production index climbed 1.8% on a year-ago basis in February. January's initial estimate was revised downward from a 1.6% gain to a 0.8% decline. Still, this shows the nation's manufacturing activity continues to stabilize and show signs of modest growth.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Hungary]: 12.2%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production grew 12.2% from a year ago in February. Industrial production has been growing north of 8% for five consecutive months now, thanks to strong exports.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Germany]: 1.1%
FIRST TAKE: Consumer price inflation accelerated slightly in March compared to the extremely low inflation recorded in February. Still, inflation remains subdued as the consumer price index increased by a mere 1.1% compared to one year ago. The risks for Europe’s largest economy continue to be on the side of economic weakness.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [France]: 1.7%
FIRST TAKE: Annual CPI inflation in France continued to decline, dipping to 1.7% in March from 1.8% in February. Healthcare and service prices led the moderation. However, the monthly price change was 0.4%, led by rising apparel, food and energy prices. Annual harmonized inflation held steady at 1.9% from last year.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Italy]: 0.0%
FIRST TAKE: Italian industrial production was flat in February, besting expectations for a modest decline. The contraction in output in January, however, was revised down to a 0.3% decline from a 0.2% drop.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Canada]: 2.00%
FIRST TAKE: As widely expected, the Bank of Canada cut rates 25 bps to 2%. This move was almost fully priced in by the market. The communique stated that there are global factors that are necessitating a readjustment in the Canadian economy. Among these factors were currency considerations.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [India]: 7.4%
FIRST TAKE: India’s industrial activity held steady in February, expanding by 7.4%. Healthy domestic demand growth is the primary force driving industrial demand in India. Export demand is also healthy. The Indian economy looks set to post another quarter of solid growth in the first quarter of 2004.

RELEASE: Survey of Business Confidence: 36.2%
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence held high and steady last week. While confidence has remained largely unchanged since the beginning of the year, it has been edging higher in recent weeks. Sales continue to strengthen and pricing has firmed. Hiring and investment in equipment and software are as strong as they have been since the survey began. Confidence is strongest in North America and Asia and among high-tech, healthcare, and real estate firms. It remains weakest in Europe, Latin America and among retailers, the travel industry and in government. Inventory investment has also recently weakened.

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Retro ...

Week Ending April 26

RELEASE: GDP [United Kingdom]: 3.1%
FIRST TAKE: Growth decelerated in the U.K. during the first three months of the year. According to the Office of National Statistics, real GDP advanced by 0.6% during the first quarter from the last three months of 2004 on a seasonally adjusted basis. The turnout is a deceleration from the 0.9% increase of 2003Q4, and puts year-ago growth at 3.0%. Service and retail activity is surging, while manufacturing acts as a constraint.

RELEASE: Retail Sales [United Kingdom]: 6.4%
FIRST TAKE: U.K. retail spending was very strong in March after a flat reading in February. According to the Office of National Statistics, real retail sales increased 0.6% in March from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. For the quarter, sales grew at nearly 8% on an annualized basis. Job, income and credit growth are all supportive of further strength in retail spending over the next six to eight months.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Norway]: 1.75%
FIRST TAKE: As expected, the Norges Bank held monetary policy constant. At the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting, the Executive Board at Norges Bank decided to maintain the target for its monetary policy instrument—the sight deposit rate—at 1.75%. The economy is in a recovery stage, and growth is expected to improve markedly this year.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [United Kingdom]: 1.1%
FIRST TAKE: Price pressures remain quiescent in the U.K. According to the Office of National Statistics, consumer prices as measured by the harmonized CPI increased 0.2% during March from February, and the year-ago rate slid two-tenths of a percentage point to 1.1%. The strong pound is attenuating high global oil prices, and reducing domestic energy costs, as well as the domestic price of imported goods. We still expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates at its May meeting.

RELEASE: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment [Germany]: 49.7
FIRST TAKE: The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment recorded its second marked downward correction in two months in April, raising fresh doubts about the strength of the German recovery. The index fell far short of expectations that had called for a more moderate correction.

RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Euro Zone]: 5.4 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: The euro-zone trade balance declined in February. According to Eurostat, the European Union statistical agency, exports were unchanged and imports increased during the month to drive a 1.6 billion euro decrease in the monthly trade surplus. Base effects pushed export growth into positive territory over the year. Still, more of the recent increase in the trade surplus comes from falling imports than strong foreign sales.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Canada]: 0.3%
FIRST TAKE: As widely expected, inflation data for March remained tame. Canadian CPI rose 0.7% in March (year on year) and matched February's increase. Core CPI rose 1.2% (year on year) after a 1.1% rise in February. Driving the 0.7% rise in the headline rate were rising prices for insurance, cigarettes, and tuition.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Euro Zone]: 0.10%
FIRST TAKE: Euro-zone production showed a marginal gain in February. According to Eurostat, the E.U. statistical agency, industrial production increased 0.1% in February from January on a seasonally adjusted basis. Production fell in Germany, was flat in Italy, and posted a bounce back in France, after a sharp decline in the previous month. The euro-zone manufacturing economy is still drifting sideways, despite stronger export sales.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Hungary]: 12.0%
FIRST TAKE: The National Bank of Hungary left its two-week deposit rate unchanged at 12% today. Today's rate decision follows two 25 basis point cuts over the past four weeks.

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Retro ...

Week Ending May 2

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Portugal]: 1.5%
FIRST TAKE: Portuguese output showed a sharp increase during March. According to the National Institute of Statistics, total output increased 3.2% during March from February on a seasonally adjusted basis, which pushes the year-ago growth rate back into positive territory at 1.5%. Output gains were evident across the board. The March data is a rebound from two months of weak production, and should not be overstated. The economy is stabilizing, but is still a ways away from strong growth.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Russia]: 103.4
FIRST TAKE: Russian industrial production continued to expand on a year-ago basis in March, but growth slowed to 3.4%. Weaker output of electricity, logging and pharmaceuticals helped to drive output growth lower.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Finland]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Finnish industrial production edged up in March, by 0.2% from the previous month. Strength stemmed from the electronics industry and the wood and paper industry. On a year-over-year basis, production was flat.

RELEASE: Employment Situation [France]: 9.8 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The French unemployment rate remained 9.8% in March as the number of unemployed fell 3,000. However, both the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate are higher than reported last month due to revisions released last week.

RELEASE: Retail Sales [Germany]: 95.7
FIRST TAKE: Retail sales data for Germany are mixed. The Bundesbank reported a sharp drop in retail sales in March compared to February as well as compared to one year ago. The data released by the Statistics Office are slightly more favorable however. Still, retail sales continued to show weakness owing to stubbornly high unemployment and uncertainty about the impact of the government’s timid reform agenda.

RELEASE: Business and Consumer Survey [Euro Zone]: 96.6
FIRST TAKE: Business and consumer sentiment in the euro zone rose in April, marking a strong improvement in confidence in Europe. Industrial, construction and retail confidence all improved, while consumer confidence remained unchanged. This is the first real momentum this index has seen over the past six months, and the highest level since mid-2001.

RELEASE: Consumer Confidence [United Kingdom]: -2.0
FIRST TAKE: U.K. consumer confidence showed a slight gain in April. According to research carried out by Martin Hamblin GfK on behalf of the European Commission, the headline consumer sentiment index for the U.K. increased one point to -2 during April from a reading of -3 in March. The gain is attributable to an improvement in sentiment toward making major purchases. Despite the slightly dour reading, a record number of British are employed, at rising wages, and households are spending like mad hatters.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Sweden]: 2.0%
FIRST TAKE: The Riksbank elected to hold the repo rate steady at 2% during its second monetary policy meeting in April. This follows a 50 basis point reduction earlier in the month.

RELEASE: Business Survey [France]: 104
FIRST TAKE: French business confidence held steady at a nearly three-year high of 104 in April. Rising demand and orders, especially for exports were offset by increasing concerns about the outlook and especially the general outlook.

RELEASE: Nationwide Housing Price Index [United Kingdom]: 18.9%
FIRST TAKE: U.K. house price growth accelerated again in March. According to the Nationwide survey of house prices, the price of the average U.K. property rose 2.1% in March from February on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the year, house prices are rising by 18.9%. Rising incomes, solid job growth, and expectations of interest rate increases later in the year are buoying housing activity early in 2004.


RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Czech Republic]: 2.00%
FIRST TAKE: As expected, the CNB Bank Board opted to keep all three of its monetary policy instruments unchanged at the conclusion of today’s meeting.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Japan]: No change
FIRST TAKE: With the tank already full, the Bank of Japan refrained from attempting to pump more money into the Japanese economy. It maintained its prior settings.

RELEASE: Balance of Payments [Euro Zone]: 5.8 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: The euro zone recorded a seasonally adjusted current account surplus of 5.4 billion euros in February, compared with a revised surplus of 3.7 billion euros in the previous month, and an average of 3.9 billion euros during the previous six months. The surplus on trade narrowed as growth in imports outpaced exports. On the financial side, the direction of net flows reversed from January’s outflow with a net inflow of 8.9 billion euros. Foreign demand for euro debt exceeded euro-area resident demand for foreign debt, though expectations of higher interest rates in the U.S. may put an end to that.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Poland]: 5.25%
FIRST TAKE: Poland’s monetary policy council elected to keep the reference rate, the country’s key monetary policy instrument, unchanged at 5.25% again this month. However, higher rates appear to be in the nation’s future. The council adopted a restrictive policy stance at today’s meeting.

RELEASE: IFO Business Climate Index [Germany]: 96.3
FIRST TAKE: The IFO Business Climate Index showed an unexpected increase in April due to a stronger assessment of current conditions, while the expectations component declined slightly. Expectations had called for a moderate decline following the weak economic data released in recent weeks. The index points to a continuing if moderate economic rebound, which has yet to become sustainable.

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Retro ...

I guess I've slacked enough ...

Week Ending May 16

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Hungary]: 10.0%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production grew 10% from a year ago in March, down from 12.2% during in February. That said, industrial production has been growing north of 8% for six consecutive months now, thanks to strong exports.

RELEASE: GDP [Taiwan]: 6.3%
FIRST TAKE: Taiwan’s recovery accelerated during the first quarter. According to the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Taiwanese GDP advanced by 6.3% on a year-ago basis during the first quarter after a 5.2% gain in the previous three months. The turnout was better than expected, and was driven by trade and election-related domestic demand. Growth should be strong for the remainder of the year, though Chinese efforts to rein in runaway growth pose a downside risk.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Belgium]: 7.9%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production surged 7.9% year-over-year in Belgium during March. For the first quarter, goods producing activity increased by 3.1%, which is the strongest gain since mid-2003.

RELEASE: GDP [Germany]: 0.4%
FIRST TAKE: GDP in Germany increased by 0.4% during the first quarter of 2004 compared to the previous quarter after adjusting for seasonal and calendar effects. Economic growth was thus better than expected owing to the strength of the foreign sector, while domestic activity remained weak.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [France]: 2.1%
FIRST TAKE: Annual CPI inflation in France accelerated to 2.1% in April, its highest reading of the year. Price increases were widespread in the month, led by fresh food, energy and autos. Annual harmonized inflation accelerated to 2.4% from last year.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Czech Republic]: 10.8%
FIRST TAKE: According to the Czech Statistical Office, industrial output adjusted for work days increased 10.8% in March on a year-ago basis. This is the strongest monthly showing yet this year. Strong durable goods production remains the primary driver of headline growth.

RELEASE: GDP [Netherlands]: 0.8%
FIRST TAKE: According to the first quarter GDP figures released today by Statistics Netherlands, GDP rose 0.8% from the previous year, an improvement on the 0.5% year-ago decline in the fourth quarter. Fixed capital formation showed the greatest percent increase from twelve months ago.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Italy]: -0.4%
FIRST TAKE: Italian industrial production disappointed again, slumping 0.4% in March. This marks the fourth straight month of declining output.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Netherlands]: -0.8%
FIRST TAKE: Weakness in the Dutch manufacturing sector continued in March, down 0.8% from March of last year. Once again, slack foreign demand was the principal cause. On a monthly basis, industrial production remained unchanged from February.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [India]: 6.7%
FIRST TAKE: India's industrial output growth slowed to 6.7% in March on a year-ago basis, down from February's 7.9% due to lower production in the mining and electricity sectors.

RELEASE: Employment Situation [United Kingdom]: 2.9 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: It is the best of times in the U.K. labor market. According to the Office of National Statistics, employment and hours worked topped a new record high in March, unemployment fell to a new record low, and the ILO jobless rate fell a tenth of a percentage point to 4.7%. Moreover, job vacancies continue to increase as the service and retail sectors expand. This should continue for a while. Absent inflationary pressures, though, the BOE can wait until August for its next interest rate hike.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [France]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in France rose 0.1% in March, following an upwardly revised 1.2% surge in February. Energy and auto production led the March gains, while capital goods production dropped sharply. Year-over-year growth increased to 1.6%, the strongest growth since August 2001.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [United Kingdom]: -0.1
FIRST TAKE: The March U.K. industrial production report is another dismal read. According to the Office for National Statistics, total U.K. production fell 0.1% during March from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The details were even worse than the headline number, with a large decline in manufacturing. Over the year, output is falling by 0.6%. The manufacturing sector is as weak in the U.K. as the retail sector is strong. On balance, aggregate growth is holding up, however.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Sweden]: -1.5%
FIRST TAKE: Sweden’s industrial production declined in March, falling 1.5% from the previous month. However, activity on a year-to-year basis remains firmly in positive territory.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Turkey]: 14.9%
FIRST TAKE: Turkish industrial production growth was 14.9% in March on a year-ago basis, down slightly from 15.7% growth in February. On a monthly, nonseasonally adjusted basis, industrial production was up 22.7% from February, reaching a record high.

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 38.4%
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence remains just off its record high. There has been a measurable improvement in hiring intentions, which are as strong as they have been since the survey began. This is prompting businesses to look for new space. Businesses are most upbeat in North America and Asia. Manufacturers, high-tech and most recently, mining companies are also very optimistic. Confidence is notably weaker in South America, but is improving. Confidence is soft and lagging in Europe. Retailers and travel companies are also much less positive.

Week Ending May 8

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Spain]: 4.0%
FIRST TAKE: Spain showed strong gains in output during March. According to INE, Spain’s statistical agency, total output increased 7.8% during March from the previous month on a calendar adjusted basis. Over the year, output growth accelerated from 1.7% to 4.0%. Spain is among the fastest growing euro-zone economies, and the Madrid bombings seemed to have very little lasting economic effect.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Norway]: 6.1%
FIRST TAKE: Output surprised on the upside for Norway in March. According to Statistics Norway, total industrial output increased 2.4% during March from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Manufacturing output extended the strong gains of the previous month. The strong output data complement earlier healthy retail sales figures, as Norway’s recovery kicks into high gear.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Germany]: -2.3%
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing in Germany suffered a severe setback in March. Industrial production contracted sharply compared to the previous month. Although there will be a marked upward revision, the latest production data cast serious doubts about the strength and sustainability of the economic recovery in Europe’s largest economy.

RELEASE: OECD Composite Leading Indicators [OECD]: 124.0
FIRST TAKE: According to the OECD, moderately strong growth will be observed for the global economy in the next six to eight months, but the rate of acceleration in economic activity is leveling off. The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the OECD area rose by 0.5 points for the month of March after a 0.5 point gain in the previous month. The six-month rate of growth fell for the third consecutive month after rising in nine consecutive months. This pattern was widespread across the constituent economies. This is typical of economies that are moving past the initial stage of recovery and into more even growth.

RELEASE: Labor Force Survey [Canada]: 7.3 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: Employment rose by an unexpected 50,000 jobs in April, bringing the job gains since August 2003 to 235,000. The unemployment rate fell to 7.3% from 7.5% on the back of the solid gains.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Denmark]: 0.9%
FIRST TAKE: Danish industrial production declined 1.4% from February, owing to declines in several of Denmark's export-based sectors. Production is up 0.9% on a year-ago basis; however, this is an indication of last year’s weakness rather than this year’s strength.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [United Kingdom]: 4.25%
FIRST TAKE: As expected, the Bank of England tightened monetary policy today. At the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted to raise its target for the repo rate—the central bank’s monetary policy instrument—by 25 basis points to 4.25%. The move is the third 25 basis point increase in the repo target since last November. Inflationary pressures are quiescent, although are expected to gradually accelerate, and house prices continue to look speculative despite the tighter liquidity. We expect another interest rate increase in August.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Euro Zone]: 2.00%
FIRST TAKE: As expected, the ECB held monetary policy constant today. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided that the minimum bid rate on main refinancing operations (repo rate), the central bank’s main policy instrument, would be held constant at 2.0%. Among the currency union’s positives, exports and business spending are supporting growth. Household consumption is highly variable, however, with weak, and deteriorating, support from Germany. Monetary policy is unlikely to change anytime soon.

RELEASE: Employment Situation [Germany]: 23,000
FIRST TAKE: Unemployment in Germany remained stubbornly high in April despite a seasonal decline in the number of jobless compared to March. The seasonally adjusted number of jobless rose by 23,000 in April compared to March, above expectations. Thus, current weak growth has proven insufficient to generate any new jobs owing to Germany’s rigid labor market.

RELEASE: Reuters Euro-Zone Services PMI [Euro Zone]: 54.5
FIRST TAKE: Service activity was mixed in the euro zone during April. According to the Reuters service-sector PMI report, service output and new orders were growing, though at a diminished pace from the rate of growth seen earlier in the year, while employment in the sector continues to contract. Service activity accelerated rapidly during the second half of last year, and is now down from the turn-of-the-year peak. In particular, optimism among European service providers is off from quite high levels earlier this year. Growth in the service sector still tops that of manufacturing, however.

RELEASE: Retail Trade [Euro Zone]: -0.2
FIRST TAKE: Consumer spending remains weak in the euro-zone. Euro-zone retail sales fell 0.2% in March after a downwardly revised 1.1% decline in February.

RELEASE: Consumer Confidence [France]: -20
FIRST TAKE: French consumer confidence rose to -20 in April from -22 in March with broad strength across the components of the index and an improvement in the unemployment outlook. However, the reliability of the data remains weakened by the change in methodology implemented in January.

RELEASE: Unemployment Rate [Euro Zone]: 8.8 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The euro-zone rate of unemployment held steady in March. According to Eurostat, the European Union statistical agency, the unemployment rate for the month of March registered 8.8%, the same as the previous month. The unemployment rate has plateaued at 8.8% for thirteen consecutive months. The steady number belies a lot of volatility in national labor markets.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Korea]: 3.3%
FIRST TAKE: Korean consumer prices spiked up a little in April, from the 3.1% year ago pace recorded in March to a 3.3% pace. While domestic demand remains subdued, the upward price pressure is more on the supply side. High input prices are being passed through to Korean consumers.

RELEASE: Reuters Euro-Zone Manufacturing PMI [Euro Zone]: 54.0
FIRST TAKE: According to the purchasing managers’ survey, manufacturing activity in the euro zone showed a robust pickup in activity for the second consecutive month. The Reuters purchasing managers’ index beat expectations with a gain to 54.0 during April from 53.3 in March. Growth in output and new orders improved, with gains in demand from foreign markets. As a leading indicator, the PMI is showing more positive trends than official IP or employment data.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Hungary]: 11.5%
FIRST TAKE: The National Bank of Hungary cut its two-week deposit rate by 50 basis points today to 11.50%. The forint had little reaction to the rate cut. Today's rate decision follows two 25 basis point cuts over the past six weeks.

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quote:

Originally posted by occrider Data does not look good for Europe as a whole this past week. Looks like we have declines in Eurozone statitistics particularly Germany ... deosn't look like they're breaking out of their slump any time soon. Canada also didn't have very good labor data. I think I'm going to start including China, Japan, and India data in the Euro thread. Seems to me that people would be interested in this data since they are all very strong contributors to the global economy.

Good idea, I'd like to see that data too, but I'm too lazy to search for it myself.

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Week Ending May 31

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Sweden]: 2.0%
FIRST TAKE: The Riksbank elected to hold the repo rate steady at 2% during its May monetary policy meeting.

RELEASE: Consumer Confidence [France]: -23
FIRST TAKE: French consumer confidence fell to -23 in May from -20 in April on broad weakness across the components of the index and a sharp deterioration in the unemployment outlook. However, the reliability of the data remains weakened by the change in methodology implemented in January.

RELEASE: Employment Situation [France]: 9.8 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The French unemployment rate remained 9.8% in April despite the number of unemployed falling 10,000.

RELEASE: Business and Consumer Survey [Euro Zone]: 100.3
FIRST TAKE: Business and consumer sentiment in the euro zone edged up slightly in May, but this has to do with the inclusion of the more optimistic services component in the broader index starting this month. Industrial and consumer confidence both slipped in May. Europe’s recovery remains slow and unsteady.

RELEASE: Consumer Confidence [United Kingdom]: -2.0
FIRST TAKE: U.K. consumer confidence held steady in May. According to research carried out by Martin Hamblin GfK on behalf of the European Commission, the headline consumer sentiment index for the U.K. remained at -2 during May. According to the details of the report, consumers are still in a spending mood, although their expectations for the future health of the economy are deteriorating.

RELEASE: Business Survey [France]: 104
FIRST TAKE: French business confidence dipped to 104 from its upwardly revised three-year high of 105 in April. Weakening export orders, particularly for machinery makers drove the decline as the general outlook improved.

RELEASE: Nationwide Housing Price Index [United Kingdom]: 19.5%
FIRST TAKE: U.K. house price growth showed another strong gain in May. According to the Nationwide survey of house prices, the price of the average U.K. property rose 1.9% in May from April on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the year, house prices rose by 19.5%. Rising incomes, solid job growth, and expectations of interest rate rises later in the year are buoying housing activity early in 2004.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Czech Republic]: 2.00%
FIRST TAKE: The CNB opted to leave all three of its monetary policy instruments unchanged at the conclusion of today's meeting. Policymakers have held interest rates constant for 11 consecutive months.

RELEASE: Balance of Payments [Euro Zone]: 12.4 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: The euro zone recorded a seasonally adjusted current account surplus of 5.1 billion euros in March, compared with a revised surplus of 5.2 billion euros in the previous month, and an average of 4.3 billion euros during the previous six months. An increase in the goods surplus was offset by a decline in the services surplus, and an increase in the income deficit. On the financial side, the euro area incurred a net outflow in both direct and portfolio investment. The euro depreciated by 3% against the dollar during March.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Poland]: 5.25%
FIRST TAKE: After what was surely some tough deliberations, Poland’s monetary policy council elected to keep the reference rate, the country’s key monetary policy instrument, unchanged at 5.25% again this month. However, higher rates are clearly in the nation’s future. The council maintained its restrictive policy stance at today’s meeting.


RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Norway]: 1.75%
FIRST TAKE: As expected, the Norges Bank held monetary policy constant. At the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting, the Executive Board at Norges Bank decided to maintain the target for its monetary policy instrument—the sight deposit rate—at 1.75%. The economy is in a recovery stage, and growth is expected to improve markedly this year. The bank reaffirmed that it is unlikely to raise interest rates soon.

RELEASE: Retail Trade [Hungary]: 4.5%
FIRST TAKE: Hungarian retail sales grew 4.5% from a year ago in March, slowing from a breakneck 11.2% pace in December. Slowing retail sales are the consequence of increasingly restrictive wage increases both in the private and public sectors.


RELEASE: IFO Business Climate Index [Germany]: 96.1
FIRST TAKE: The IFO Business Climate index showed the expected marginal downward correction in May. The index measuring expectations showed a marginal plus, while the index showing the assessment of current conditions showed a moderate decline. Thus, Europe’s largest economy will continue to expand, although the recovery remains fragile.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Taiwan]: 12.8%
FIRST TAKE: Taiwan’s industrial production continues to thrive. Figures for April indicate industrial production was up 12.8%, on a year-to-year basis.

Week Ending May 24

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Japan]: No change
FIRST TAKE: In an unsurprising move, the BoJ decided to leave its key monetary settings unchanged from the previous meeting.

RELEASE: Retail Sales [United Kingdom]: 6.1%
FIRST TAKE: Retail sales growth posted another very strong month in April, rising 6.1% on a year-ago basis. April marks the fourth consecutive month of 6%-plus growth. Expansion is being fueled by robust job, income and credit growth in the U.K.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Canada]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: April inflation was higher than expected, rising 1.6%(year on year), compared to the 0.7% rise in March. The huge uptick in prices in April comes as a result of two forces. The huge rise in energy prices in April was compounded by the large fall in energy prices last April.

Core inflation rose 1.8% in April, compared to the 1.3% rise in March.

RELEASE: GDP [France]: 0.8%
FIRST TAKE: French GDP rose 0.8% in the first quarter, in line with last week’s flash estimate, according to preliminary figures. Household consumption and investment spending led the way with net trade remaining a drag.

RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Euro Zone]: 10.2 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: Euro-zone imports tumbled in March, to drive a larger increase in the trade balance. According to Eurostat, the European Union statistical agency, exports held steady and imports fell, to drive a trade surplus of 10.2 billion euros during March. The combination of soft internal demand and strong external demand is driving an improvement in the trade balance.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [United Kingdom]: 1.2%
FIRST TAKE: Annual inflation barely budged in the U.K. during April. According to the Office of National Statistics, consumer prices as measured by the harmonized CPI increased 0.4% during April from March, and the year-ago rate increased a tenth of a percentage point to 1.2%. The pound is well off of its peak against the dollar, which will undo some of the deceleration in inflation going forward. Still, price pressures are not yet sufficient to alter the Bank of England’s gradualist monetary tightening.

RELEASE: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment [Germany]: 46.4
FIRST TAKE: The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment showed a more pronounced decline than expected in May. The index fell to 46.4 compared to expectations for a more moderate drop to 49. The index confirms that the recovery in Europe’s largest economy remains fragile.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Euro Zone]: 2.0
FIRST TAKE: The April report on euro-zone inflation showed the expected acceleration in price pressures. According to Eurostat, the E.U. statistical agency, consumer prices increased 0.4% in April from the previous month, which puts the year-ago rate back up to 2%. Core inflation held steady at an elevated rate. Oil, a weaker currency, and base effects will support inflation through the summer, but policy will not be affected: the ECB is on hold.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Euro Zone]: -0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Euro-zone production contracted in March due to weakness in Germany and Italy. According to Eurostat, the EU statistical agency, industrial production decreased 0.2% in March from February on a seasonally adjusted basis. Manufacturing activity is weaker than expected in the euro zone, especially in Germany and Italy, though France isn’t winning any beauty contests. On net, production in the currency union showed a slight decrease during Q1.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Hungary]: 11.5%
FIRST TAKE: The National Bank of Hungary left its policy rate unchanged at 11.50% today. The policy rate has been cut by a full percentage point over the past two months.

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Two weeks of data to follow. Overall, I would say that it looks fairly mixed. Looks like there are some improvements with some of the smaller euro countries, but things still don't look peachy for the two largest economies of france and germany. Unemployment remains stubbornly high at 9% following an upward revision of the previous month's data.

Week Ending June 13

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Greece]: 1.3%


RELEASE: Industrial Production [India]: 9.4%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial activity soared in India in April, expanding by 9.4%. Robust domestic and improving external demand is helping drive industrial activity. This is an auspicious start for the new fiscal year, and the new government.



RELEASE: OECD Composite Leading Indicators [OECD]: 124.0
FIRST TAKE: According to the OECD, moderately strong growth will be observed for the global economy in the next six to eight months, but with a slower rate of acceleration. The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the OECD area rose by 0.3 points for the month of April after a 0.2 point gain in the previous month. The six-month rate of growth fell for the third consecutive month after an upward trend that began in April 2003. This pattern was widespread across the constituent economies. This is typical of economies that are moving past the initial stage of recovery and into more level growth.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Belgium]: -0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Belgium's industrial production index slipped 0.1% during April on a year-ago basis. However, the trend still remains strong as March's provisional estimate was revised upward from an already strong reading of 7.9% to 9.8%.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [France]: -0.4%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in France unexpectedly fell 0.4% in April with declines in several industries, led by energy. However, the March gain was upwardly revised. Industrial production (excluding food and energy) rose 0.4% led by gains in capital goods production. Year-over-year growth slipped to 1.1%.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Czech Republic]: 10.1%
FIRST TAKE: According to the Czech Statistical Office, industrial output adjusted for work days increased 10.1% in April on a year-ago basis. This is the second consecutive month of double-digit growth. Strong capital and intermediate goods production drove topline gains in April.

RELEASE: GDP [Italy]: 0.4%
FIRST TAKE: Italy’s economy posted very slight growth in the first quarter. In line with the flash estimate, the economy expanded 0.4% on a quarterly basis in the first three months of this year.

RELEASE: GDP [Poland]: 6.9%
FIRST TAKE: Polish GDP growth rose to a better-than-expected 6.9% on a yearly basis in the first quarter, the fastest pace of growth in nearly seven years. Consumer spending continues to help drive the economy, although business investment is also starting to improve.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Sweden]: 2.7%
FIRST TAKE: The preliminary estimate by Statistics Sweden suggests that industrial production experienced a sharp 2.7% m/m (4.1% y/y) expansion in April.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [United Kingdom]: 4.50%
FIRST TAKE: The Bank of England took a more aggressive stance toward constraining the U.K. economy today. At the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted to raise its target for the repo rate—the central bank’s monetary policy instrument—by 25 basis points to 4.50%. The move is the fourth 25 basis point increase in the repo target since last November. Inflationary pressures are moderate, but are picking up due to base effects, higher oil prices, and very tight labor markets. More interest rate hikes will follow.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Germany]: 2.1%
FIRST TAKE: Consumer price inflation in Germany accelerated in May mostly due to higher energy prices. Inflation in Europe’s largest economy is now close to the European Central Bank’s target rate.

RELEASE: GDP [Finland]: 0.7%
FIRST TAKE: Finland’s economy accelerated in the first quarter, posting sequential growth of 0.7%. Economic growth was led by exports and consumption. Investment contracted in the first quarter. Finland’s economy appears to be improving, but growth remains tepid.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Netherlands]: 0.4%
FIRST TAKE: The Netherlands manufacturing is showing signs of life once again after two months of dour output. According to data released by Statistics Netherlands, industrial production in April was up 0.4% from April of last year, and up 0.7% from March.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [United Kingdom]: 0.6
FIRST TAKE: Output rebounded in the U.K. during April. According to the Office for National Statistics, total U.K. production increased 0.6% during April from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Among the details, manufacturing output showed a large gain. On a year-ago basis, output growth shifted to the positive range, with a 0.4% gain. The manufacturing sector in the U.K. is still weak, though complementary evidence suggests a recovery is underway.

RELEASE: GDP [Sweden]: 0.6%
FIRST TAKE: Sweden’s gross domestic product expanded 2.6% y/y in the first quarter, accelerating from an upwardly revised 2.3% expansion in the final months of last year. This continues the steady growth trend in place since mid-2003. Output rose 0.6% from the previous quarter, slowing marginally from an upwardly revised 0.7% in Q4.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Turkey]: 16.5%
FIRST TAKE: Turkish industrial production growth was 16.5% in April on a year-ago basis, unchanged from the previous month. On a monthly, nonseasonally adjusted basis, industrial production contracted 4.9% from the record setting month of March.

RELEASE: Employment Situation [Germany]: 9,000
FIRST TAKE: Unemployment in Germany increased for the fifth consecutive month after seasonal adjustment. The number of jobless rose by 9,000 in May compared to the previous month, slightly lower than expectations. Markets had anticipated an increase of 19,000 in the jobless count. Still, unemployment remains stubbornly high as current economic growth is too weak to generate sustainable job growth.

RELEASE: GDP [Norway]: 1.0%
FIRST TAKE: Norway reported moderate growth for the first three months of 2004. According to Statistics Norway, real mainland GDP advanced by 0.5% during the first quarter from the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis. Growth was purely a domestic affair, with exports falling in the quarter. Growth prospects for the remainder of the year are better.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Germany]: 2.2%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in Germany increased above expectations in April compared to March. After seasonal adjustment, industrial production grew by 2.2% in April compared to March. The upbeat data may signal a more sustainable rebound in Europe’s largest economy.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Denmark]: 3.4%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in Denmark expanded 2.4% in April from one month previous. Production in the country is up 3.4% on year-ago basis thanks to significant jumps in machinery and furniture manufacturing.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Norway]: -0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Norwegian production came in very soft during April. According to Statistics Norway, total industrial output slumped 4.8% during April from March on a seasonally adjusted basis. While the turnout is mostly an aberration, the monthly decline was nevertheless surprisingly large, and imparts considerable downward inertia to Q2. Look for a considerable bounce-back and/or revaluation in May.


RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Hungary]: 11.5%
FIRST TAKE: The National Bank of Hungary left its policy rate unchanged at 11.50% today. The policy rate was left alone despite widespread expectations for a cut.

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 38.7%
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence continues to hover near the record high that has more or less prevailed since March. The most notable changes in recent weeks are more aggressive business hiring and measurably stronger South American confidence. Confidence is still strongest in Asia and North America and lagging substantially in Europe. Manufacturers, high-tech and most recently, mining companies are very optimistic. Entertainment, healthcare, government, retailers, and travel companies remain less positive. Despite a palpable improvement in pricing, it remains businesses primary concern.

Week Ending June 6

RELEASE: Reuters Euro-Zone Services PMI [Euro Zone]: 55.8
FIRST TAKE: Service activity improved in the euro zone during May. According to the Reuters service-sector PMI report, service output and new orders were growing, though at a varied pace across constituent countries, while employment in the sector was stagnant. Service activity accelerated rapidly during the second half of last year, and is still down from the turn-of-the-year peak. Growth in the service sector still tops that of manufacturing, however, and will accelerate during the second half.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Euro Zone]: 2.00%
FIRST TAKE: As expected, the ECB held monetary policy constant today. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided that the minimum bid rate on main refinancing operations (repo rate), the central bank’s main policy instrument, would be held constant at 2.0%. The upside surprise to GDP growth this week will quash any further calls for a rate cut. The risks are now shifting to inflation pressures. Nevertheless, monetary policy is unlikely to change this year.

RELEASE: Retail Sales [Germany]: 97.3
FIRST TAKE: Retail sales in Germany continued to show weakness in April. While retail sales increased compared to March, sales were down substantially compared to one year ago. Consumers in Europe’s largest economy remain reluctant to spend owing to the uncertainties emanating from stubbornly high unemployment and the government’s erratic approach toward reform.

RELEASE: Unemployment Rate [Euro Zone]: 9.0 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The euro-zone rate of unemployment came in high after revisions to back data. According to Eurostat, the European Union statistical agency, the unemployment rate for the month of April registered 9.0%. The March turnout, originally reported at 8.8%, was revised up to 9.0%, which is more consistent with developments in national labor markets. Despite an improvement in business prospects, the outlook for euro-zone labor markets is still dim.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Russia]: 106.7
FIRST TAKE: Russian industrial production grew by 6.7% versus a year ago in April. Year-to-date, IP has risen 6.4% over the first four months of 2003.


RELEASE: Industrial Production [Finland]: 1.0%
FIRST TAKE: Finnish industrial production climbed in April, by 1% from the previous month. Strength stemmed from the wood and paper industry and other manufacturing. On a year-over-year basis, production was ups 0.7%.

RELEASE: Reuters Euro-Zone Manufacturing PMI [Euro Zone]: 54.7
FIRST TAKE: Euro-zone growth is expected to accelerate in the near term. The Reuters purchasing managers’ index indicated strong growth momentum, with a gain to 54.7 during May from 54.0 in April. Growth in output and new orders showed strong growth, with gains in demand from foreign markets. As an indicator of manufacturing activity, the PMI is showing more positive trends than official IP data.

RELEASE: GDP [Euro Zone]: 1.3%
FIRST TAKE: Euro-zone growth was firm during the first quarter. According to Eurostat, the E.U. statistical agency, real GDP advanced by 0.6% during the first quarter from the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis. The release of detailed data confirmed the preliminary estimate, though the composition of growth was somewhat surprising. Exports led the way, with growth in consumption topping that for fixed investment.

RELEASE: GDP [Canada]: 2.4%
FIRST TAKE: GDP in the first quarter rose 0.6% on the back of improved consumer spending and firm exports. GDP in the first quarter ended on a high note after two months of soft growth, and was the strongest bounce back since the August 2003 blackout.

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