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Explanation for the lack of bounce from the Gallup website:
| quote: | In an article on Gallup's Web site before the Democratic Convention, Gallup Poll Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport cautioned that it was possible the average convention bounce calculated for previous conventions might not apply this year. Voters appear unusually intense this election compared with previous elections, with the number of persuadable voters only about half the total in 2000. In addition, it appears that more voters are paying closer attention to the campaign this year than in previous years, so that relatively few voters would find the convention presenting information they had not already heard.
Another difference this year from previous years is that the three major television networks cut back dramatically on the coverage of the convention, devoting a total of only three hours in prime time over a four-day period. The one hour of coverage each night on Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday came late in the evening -- 10:00 pm Eastern time, 9:00 pm Central.
Apart from these factors, it is quite possible that the aggressive response of the president and vice president immediately after the Democratic Convention helped to tamp down even a slight bounce that might have occurred despite strong voter commitment and little convention coverage. Among registered voters, the Friday figures showed a lead for Kerry, while the Saturday figures -- conducted after Bush began a campaign swing in four battleground states to counter Democratic criticisms of his presidency -- showed a lead for Bush.
The CNN/USA Today/Gallup surveys over the past several months have shown surprising stability in the presidential contest, with both candidates' support levels varying within a narrow range. Kerry led by six points in early March, but then Bush led by six in mid-April. In early June, Kerry led by six, but that moved to a virtual tie, until Kerry led by five in early July. Now Bush leads by four. |
http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=12565
Bloody "liberal media". 
Secondly, you have to place this poll in historical context. When Gore experienced a massive swing in his favour after the DNC in 2000, this was only because he was so far behind to begin with:
| quote: | | The latest Gallup poll, conducted August 18-19, shows Vice President Al Gore and Texas Governor George W. Bush in a dead heat, with 47% of likely voters saying they would choose Gore and 46% opting for Bush. This represents a 17-point swing from a poll conducted before the Democratic National Convention, when Bush led Gore by 16 points, 55% to 39%. |
http://www.gallup.com/content/login.aspx?ci=2614
It's also worth pointing out that, historically, polls taken in August are not likely to give you a very good indication of who's going to come out on top. Look at Gallup trends going back more than half a century:
http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=1216
Finally, Bush's approval rating is at close to the lowest it's been throughout his presidency (he's only 1% ahead of his lowest ebb in May of this year) and the trend throughout the year - after being at 60% in January - has been consistently downwards:
I don't think there's any doubt that this is going to be a close election, but Bush is probably relying on one of three things to secure the election:
1) A major national disaster.
2) The capture of Osama bin Laden, or some other significant progress in the War on Terror.
3) A major Kerry slip-up.
If none of things things happen, I'm not sure how he's going to arrest his continuing slide. Considering the huge popularity spikes he's had over his incumbency, the fact that he's struggling to keep above water with another 3 months to go until the election is a pretty bad reflection on his endless succession of blunders while in office. If September 11 had never happened then Bush's failures as a president would have been made more prominent and I doubt very much that he'd be as well placed as he is now (which even then, for an incumbent president, is not very well).
In any case, this will be interesting.
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http://eschatonnow.blogspot.com/
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