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LiquidX
It's All OvA!



Registered: Mar 2001
Location: In Ur Mind

quote:
Originally posted by speedracer_mec
Blank paper for the printer = 15 cents

Microsoft Word 2000 = $250

Computer and printer = $1000

Watching Dan Rather apololgize on national TV = Priceless


Oh, and CBS just keeps getting more and more owned on this..




Some places are reporting leaks from within CBS say that they had doubts about the documents but ran the story anyway.

But then again, those are "leaked" documents too.

Which leak to believe? Either? Both? Neither?

I am also hearing now that Dan Rathers Daughter is a BIG DEM fund raiser in TX with that Ben guy and that Dan Rather actually went down to a fundraiser down there to be the key speaker.

I heard that on the radio today. I am sure there will be news stories about later on.

Rather is toast. He should just resign now

here are the files

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf...ush_service.pdf

I commend ABC news on their efforts to refute CBS
I also think ABC is happy to lay a little "bitch slapping" on CBS and Dan Rather




It's not like Kerry ever made this part of his politics..


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Old Post Sep-11-2004 00:53  Chile
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Trancer-X
mutatis mutandis



Registered: Jul 2001
Location: Shambhala

quote:
Originally posted by LiquidX
It's not like Kerry ever made this part of his politics..


The Bush bots want you to believe that he did!

Old Post Sep-11-2004 01:13  United States
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LiquidX
It's All OvA!



Registered: Mar 2001
Location: In Ur Mind

Ooohh Mec!! CRAAAP!!! It looks like the plates and tables are turning around!! OMFG! How could that be!! I thought Kerry's Campaign was down the throat and hole!! heh..

quote:
Five new polls today, two of them significant. Kerry has moved back into the lead in Pennsylvania albeit by less than the MoE so it doesn't mean a lot. The Survey USA poll gives Kerry 49% to Bush's 47%. Picking up Pennsylvania also gives him the 270 votes in the electoral college needed to win.

The other significant poll is in Missouri, where Survey USA puts Bush ahead 48% to 46%. Thursday we had Bush up by 14% according to a Gallup poll. I didn't believe that then and I still don't. Gallup clearly messed up, like Time and Newsweek last week. Before believing a strange results, check the state graphs to see if it fits in. Barring major news, jumps of 10% in a week are just not going to happen in this race.

Bush has maintained his huge leads in Indiana, Kansas, and Kentucky. Consequently, neither candidate will set foot in any of these states.
was afraid this was going to happen sooner or later and it has now happened. I have to make a judgement call on a firm that engages in push polling. In case you haven't followed this issue, push polling is where the pollster (on instructions from the client) asks a very slanted question in order to elicit the desired answer so the pollster can announce how well the client is doing. Questions like "Do you support John Kerry even though he lied about getting medals in Vietnam?" or "Do you support George Bush even though he deserted the National Guard during war time?" fall in this category. Legitimate pollsters would never ask such questions. Instead they might ask "Do you believe John Kerry earned his medals in Vietnam?" or "Do you believe George Bush fulfilled his duties in the National Guard?". Those are questions designed to determine public opinion, not create it.

Why does this come up now? Moore Information (R) just released a poll showing Bush 9% ahead in Iowa, a state he has never led in before and which the current poll (taken 5 days before Moore's poll) puts Bush 4% behind. On its own merits, this is implausible, but in the absence of other evidence, I would accept it, as I accepted Gallup's poll showing Bush 14% ahead in Missouri (even though I don't believe it for a second) due to Gallup's reputation. Even Gallup can make a mistake, but they are not dishonest. With Moore Information, the situation is different. Moore was recently caught doing push polling, as reported in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. It is ok for a pollster to work for one side or the other as long as they do honest polls (Scott Rasmussen is a Republican but I have no reason to question his numbers, for example). But Moore has crossed the line and got caught with its hand in the cookie jar. I asked the president of Moore Information for his side of the story but he didn't respond. Henceforth I will not use any Moore Information polls. If anyone has documented evidence of other pollsters doing push polls, please let me know.

In Rasmussen's 3-day rolling averages, Bush currently leads Kerry by 1.6% nationally, but trails him by 2.5% in the 16 battleground states. Ultimately, the latter number may be more important than the former because rolling up a massive victory in the South and West may be slim consolation for losing the Midwest by 2%. Rasmussen also reports that in the battleground states only 39% think the country is on the right track, vs. 56% who think it is on the wrong track. Numbers like these are never good for an incumbent.

For those of you curious about the minor parties, I now have some real data. Zogby's Sept. 8-9 survey gives the following results: Bush 46%, Kerry 42%, Nader 2.4%, Badnarik 0.9%, Peroutka 0.3%, Other 0.6%, Undecided 8%. In a two-man matchup, Bush leads Kerry by 2%. I just learned that Zogby is the house pollster for the New York Post, an extreme right-wing tabloid owned by Rupert Murdoch. Having the Post and the WSJ as clients doesn't attest to Zogby's accuracy but it does attest to his not being biased in favor of Kerry. Zogby is also the pollster for Reuters, the largest news agency in the world.


www.electoral-vote.com

Looks Like Kerry is getting back in the lead.. Aaah Crap how could that happen!! Bush was leading a stunning 10 point digit number just days ago!!



As you can read through, Rasmussen is a based republican, alongside with the more prestigious as Zogby.


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Last edited by LiquidX on Sep-11-2004 at 14:49

Old Post Sep-11-2004 13:15  Chile
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Shakka
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Feb 2003
Location:

quote:
Originally posted by LiquidX
Ooohh Mec!! CRAAAP!!! It looks like the plates and tables are turning around!! OMFG! How could that be!! I thought Kerry's Campaign was down the throat and hole!! heh..



www.electoral-college.com

Looks Like Kerry is getting back in the lead.. Aaah Crap how could that happen!! Bush was leading a stunning 10 point digit number just days ago!!



As you can read through, Rasmussen is a based republican, alongside with the more prestigious as Zogby.


I love that the writer calls the Post "Extreme Right-Wing". A bit of an extreme comment I'd say. It's certainly to the right, but I don't know if it's quite "Extreme" enough for that description. It's no more extreme right than the New York Times is "Extreme Left". Criticises the WSJ too--that's a hoot. But alas, I digress.

First off, whatever you just quoted certainly didn't sound like a credible news source. Half of the whole article just sounded like a massive brain fart of a word jumble. But that aside, when I clicked on the linke you provided, I got whisked away to Here

Anybody else see this when they clicked the link?



Anyway, who cares. Polls are nothing more than polls. Don't go planning your life around them. As the old adage goes, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics."

Another funny quote: "The statistics on sanity are that one out of every four Americans is suffering from some form of mental illness. Think of your three best friends. If they are okay, then it's you. "


Old Post Sep-11-2004 14:33  United States
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LiquidX
It's All OvA!



Registered: Mar 2001
Location: In Ur Mind

HeH.. yea, I edited, it's electoral-vote.com .. I got too much of the electoral college running around my head heh.


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Old Post Sep-11-2004 14:49  Chile
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speedracer_mec
DeepHouse & Progressive



Registered: Oct 2001
Location: Greece, where the good progressive comes from.

quote:
Originally posted by LiquidX
HeH.. yea, I edited, it's electoral-vote.com .. I got too much of the electoral college running around my head heh.


We all do buddy.

Old Post Sep-11-2004 16:57 
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Trancer-X
mutatis mutandis



Registered: Jul 2001
Location: Shambhala
Talking

Old Post Sep-11-2004 22:15  United States
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torontotrance
I hath returned



Registered: Apr 2001
Location: Toronto

Don't believe the polls, they are rarely that accurate.

Old Post Sep-12-2004 03:50  Canada
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BadBadNeil
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Dec 2003
Location: CT, USA!

I'd say a more appropriate time to check out the polls would be after these dates

Debate 1:
University of Miami in Coral Gables, Florida, on September. 30, 2004.

Debate 2:
October 8th debate at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri,

Debate: 3
Arizona State University in Tempe, Arizona, on October 13th.

I think head to head matchups will really bring out the issues and give Americans a more clear idea on who the candidates really are.


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Old Post Sep-12-2004 04:18  United States
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icyhandofcrap
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Jan 2004
Location: Cali

Well, according to electoral-vote.com, the polls shifted back to Kerry in 2 days.


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Old Post Sep-12-2004 07:10  United States
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PhloTron
EJECT EJECT EJECT !!!



Registered: Jun 2002
Location: Isle of Spam

just want everyone to know that Montana's 3 Electoral votes are never in doubt...the 26 voters and 3 million sheep and cows stand firm in their decisions.


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Old Post Sep-12-2004 08:41  United States
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MisterOpus1
Grumpy Old Fart



Registered: Dec 2001
Location: Kansas City

I'm replying to you because, well, because I missed the hell outa ya! So here's my angry liberal reply bub!:

quote:
Originally posted by Shakka
D'oh!

Nice change of topic, Opus!


I changed the topic?

I thought I was just talkin' about one of the few topics given by that article - the polls?

Was I wrong to do so?

quote:
I agree, there's a long way to go. Kerry certainly is having his share of blowups recently. I'm sure Bush will have plenty more--it's all a question of timing in the end!


True, in fact it almost seems like a certain degree of luck is required in the end.

quote:
Thing is, Bush has never tried to run on his National Guard service and he's never made it an issue in his campaign.


True, though I tend to think that past history is open season on any candidate, regardless of whether or not they make it a part of their campaign. It doesn't help much with the desire to focus on present day issues, but that's politics for ya.


quote:
Kerry, on the other hand, has tried to make a 4 month stint in Vietnam the central focal point of his campaign and it is constantly blowing up in his face.


I dunno, I tend to see it a little different (I know, a real shocker from a partisan liberal ). I agree (yet again) that he overplayed his Vietnam record on the campaign trail after the Dem. Convention, but for things to blow up in his face on a factual level there has to be substantive evidence that he was lying about his record.

We know now that the group charging all that crud against his record has been riddled with a slew of inconsistencies and contradictions in their own account as well as Naval record and actual eyewitnesses to Kerry's actions.

Of course in the long run, it's not so much the factual evidence (or lack thereof) that sticks in the minds of undecided voters. Like I've said before, the Conservatives have the political mudslinging down to an art. Throw enough mud and see just how much will stick.

The Dems. are playing catch up in this regard.


quote:
If he actually had a record to run on from his senate service, he might be doing better.


Well see, I think he has quite a record to run on here. By that logic we would have to examine Cheney's record in the House and see just how effective he was. How many bills did he contribute to that passed? 4 was it? Vs. how many Kerry took part in?

Ahh hell, there were other affairs to be sure - Iran/Contra, BCCI, normalizing relations with McCain with Vietnam, supporting numerous defense bills post 1997 (prior to that many in Congress, including Cheney, as well as Bush I were interested in cutting defense for fiscal responsibility and deficit reduction), etc. etc.

It's incredibly easy to take apart a Senator or Representative's voting record and twist it upside-down and backwards on itself. As an example, take a look at how Bush and the Conservatives (oh yeah, Zell Miller too) twisted Kerry's vote on the $87 billion package for Iraq, which Occ did a splendid job outlining just how easy it was to twist around:

http://www.tranceaddict.com/forums/...87&pagenumber=4

So we have 2 bills here, and Kerry was trying to be fiscally responsible with how to spend the money. Bush used that against him, even though he threatened to veto the first bill because it didn't suit him. And this was the same guy who said that supporting our troops isn't complicated?

Twisting his Senatorial voting history is wonderful fodder for the Conservatives. It works too, unfortunately, because much of the public doesn't realize just how many stipulations and additions/subtractions go into 1 Bill trying to be passed. Nevertheless, I anticipate the Conservatives attempting to go after this regardless in the coming weeks.

I think, however, that the Conservatives need to be careful attacking Kerry's record on Defense. And here's why:

http://www.alternet.org/election04/19832/

Hypocracy anyone?

quote:
I find it funny that a guy who had a film crew with him in Vietnam doesn't have any footage of the so called "Daily attrocities" that were committed by he and so many thousands of other soldiers who were over there.


Now Shakka, if you've read Kerry's transcript, you'd realize that Kerry wasn't referring to his troops committing atrocities, nor did he himself state that he committed atrocities. Rather, he was reporting what other soldiers had told him from a previous event in Detroit:

http://www.factcheck.org/article.aspx?docID=244

He did participate in free fire zones, however, which he later stated that he found out that those were against the Geneva Conventions. His anger was NOT towards the troops, but from the Pentagon and our incorrect government policy that was passed down onto the troops.

And I hope you're not stating that atrocities in general weren't taking place. The My Lai massacres were well known prior to Kerry's testimony, thanks to one of the Conservatives' favorite authors, Seymor Hersh, and other massacres such as the Tiger Force and Son Thang were exposed afterwards (not by Hersh, mind you).

http://www.factcheck.org/article.aspx?docID=244

quote:
Like I said, there's a long way to go in this election(Hell, the debates don't even start for a few weeks), but it looks like Kerry needs to do something to save his dwindling momentum.


Are you sure you're not talking about your own party's leader? Isn't is true that Bush received the smallest gallop "bounce" in history AFTER the Repub. convention? And that huge 11 pt. Newsweek "bounce", why did it fall back down to 6 points IN ONE WEEK?:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5971162/site/newsweek/

How can an incumbent president who's so strong in the polls lose 5 points so quickly? That's staggering to me.

But I'm like you, nothing's interesting about these stupid polls until the final weeks. So I won't pay too much attention to them until then if you won't either.


___________________
Whence September dusk grows crisper still,
with leaves all crimson conquered,
I yearn to shout,
and dance about,
and stick pickles in my honker...

Old Post Sep-12-2004 18:31  United States
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TranceAddict Forums > Other > Political Discussion / Debate > Tough Week for Kerry/Demise of the Kerry Campaign
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