Ahh, just noticed this article by Zogby on my way out to lunch:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=859

quote:

have checked out Newsweek's poll. Their sample of registered voters includes 38% Republican, 31% Democrat and 31% Independent voters. If we look at the three last Presidential elections, the spread was 34% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 33% Independents (in 1992 with Ross Perot in the race); 39% Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 27% Independents in 1996; and 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents in 2000. While party identification can indeed change within the electorate, there is no evidence anywhere to suggest that Democrats will only represent 31% of the total vote this year. In fact, other competitors have gone in the opposite direction. The Los Angeles Times released a poll in June of this year with 38% Democrats and only 25% Republicans. And Gallup's party identification figures have been all over the place. This is no small consideration. Given the fact that each candidate receives anywhere between eight in ten and nine in ten support from voters in his own party, any change in party identification trades point for point in the candidate's total support. My polls use a party weight of 39% Democrat, 35% Republican and 26% Independent. Thus in examining the Newsweek poll, add three points for Mr. Bush because of the percentage of Republicans in their poll, then add another 8% for Mr. Bush for the reduction in Democrats. It is not hard to see how we move from my two-point lead to their eleven-point lead for the President.

Pretty much what I said, with some more detail.

___________________
Whence September dusk grows crisper still,
with leaves all crimson conquered,
I yearn to shout,
and dance about,
and stick pickles in my honker...

besides, warm up your television... the debates start tomorrow. i wonder if gallop will normalize it's data based on a expected ratio of "pity" votes for Bush.

Telephone polls are nonsense anyway. They disproportionately represent people with nothing better to do with their time than answer questions over the phone for someone else's benefit.

Ask anyone with telemarketing experience what group of people are most likely to stay on the line. I'll give you a hint: it also tends to be a group that typically votes Republican. No, it's not stupid people (good guess, though).

quote:

Originally posted by ResonantDrag i am but a lowly mortal, i would never knock the central limit theorem.

So long as we're on the same page

___________________
Retro ...

quote:

Originally posted by occrider So long as we're on the same page

I'm tryin', but the damn book keeps flipping chapters