quote:

Originally posted by Spacey Orange u really think they are tough on bush and his cabal, post 9/11, pre-war, post-invasion? ok.

yea thats why Kerry is close to Bush in this race.


You thought people would vote for kerry based on who he is?? LOL
the media has boosted kerry so much it isnt even funny. He is a nobody extreme liberal running on events to carry him into office



The unbiased media would do well to speak the truth (since they spend so much time telling us they have no dog in this hunt) and just tell us that a vote for Kerry is primarily just a vote against Bush. How else can you explain all this Bush-hating propaganda that we have to listen to and read all day long now?

quote:

Originally posted by St_Andrew just a thought, wouldnt it be worse for a candidate to be in a slight lead? cause that would mean that people that support that candidate dont feel it is as important to go vote but the persons that supports the other candidate, will think it is much more important to go vote.

i also thought about that. the reverse psychological disadvatage tip.

depends, i guess, on the poll i.e. likely voters or registered voters or whatnot.

quote:

Originally posted by Spacey Orange That's the funniest line i've read here. R U kidding me? King George mentions 9/11 and the Iraq war every chance he gets to squeeze it into any discussion. Hello? What you call bush-bashing, i call putting the spotlight on his record (and media hardly does that enough), not under the admsintsration spin. Simple as that. Why do you think he was perceived to do so poorly in the debates? Because the public has a spinned perception of him so much, that they don't know him. When they saw him, they were utterly dissappointed. That's who he is, mumbler, confused, distracted, simple-minded.

Yea thats why the average American say Kerry Won Debate, But Voter Preferences Remain the Same....according to most polls. These polls remained tucked in away from the average American.
Yea Kerry certainly moved everyone to his side.

Why? Explain that to me?
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/poli...oll_040930.html

Last edited by speedracer_mec on Oct-18-2004 at 00:27

quote:

Originally posted by speedracer_mec Yea thats why the average American say Kerry Won Debate, But Voter Preferences Remain the Same....according to most polls. These polls remained tucked in away from the average American. Yea Kerry certainly moved everyone to his side. Why? Explain that to me? http://abcnews.go.com/sections/poli...oll_040930.html

it explains it in the article you just posted...

quote:

This kind of outcome is typical in presidential debates, which tend to reinforce viewers' preferences rather than change them. But the debates — an essential window on the candidates' styles as well as their substance — can affect the race more subtly as voters move toward their final judgments. The results of this survey are not among all registered or likely voters; instead they are among registered voters who watched the debate Thursday night. They are, however, similar to the race overall, 51 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in an ABC News/Washington Post poll earlier this week

quote:

Originally posted by Spacey Orange That's easy. Spin doctors and simple-minded, non-critical thinking americans. Bush has a much better politcal machine and americans, we'll just leave it as i wrote.

Also the media should also mention that Kerry has only led 4 times in the last 57 major Polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
Yup but its a deadlock heat.....never mentioning or highlighting a BUSH LEAD with the same effect as pushing a KERRY BOOST to the extreme

-_-;;

quote:

Originally posted by .montecarlo. it explains it in the article you just posted...

ahuh
Remember this gem dug deep withing the archives of CNN. Obviously they are not happy with Bush pulling ahead now. I posted it on pg 1 if you didnt see it

quote:

Poll: Presidential race still tight Kerry's debate showing not translating to popularity Sunday, October 17, 2004 Posted: 6:06 PM EDT (2206 GMT) The poll said 46 percent thought Sen. John Kerry did a better job in the third debate than President Bush. (CNN) -- Although Americans think Sen. John Kerry did the best job in the debates, the Democratic nominee appears to have lost some ground to President Bush in the popularity contest, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Sunday. The poll interviewed 1,013 adult Americans by telephone Thursday through Saturday, including 942 who identified themselves as registered voters and 788 who indicated they were likely to vote. In the previous Gallup poll, taken October 9-10 after the second debate on October 8, Kerry and Bush were tied at 48 percent among registered voters. (Full story) The latest poll, taken after the third and final debate last Wednesday in Tempe, Arizona, indicated an edge of 49 percent to 46 percent for Bush among the same group. That is still practically even -- given the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The October 9-10 poll had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. But among likely voters Bush had a larger spread -- 52 percent to 44 percent. That compared with a 49 percent to 46 percent edge for Bush in the previous poll. Independent candidate Ralph Nader had 1 percent among both groups in each poll. In the most recent poll, 46 percent of all those interviewed thought Kerry did a better job than Bush, who had 32 percent. Yet as Democrat Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into electoral votes. As in 2000, Bush's favorability ratings -- how Americans view him as a person -- went up after a debate that voters say he lost -- from 51 percent in the October 9-10 poll to 55 percent in the most recent poll. Kerry's favorability rating remained flat, at 52 percent in both polls. The question had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. One reason Kerry has not been able to translate his debate showing into a lead in the popularity contest could be that voters think he is too liberal. Bush emphasized that label at Wednesday's debate, and it seems to be sticking. Nearly half of all respondents -- 47 percent -- in the most recent poll said Kerry's political views are too liberal. Four in 10 said Bush is too conservative. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points. Kerry got one major advantage out of the debates. Fifty-seven percent of all respondents saw him as able to handle the job of commander in chief -- compared with 53 percent in an October 1-3 Gallup poll and 49 percent in a September 24-26 poll. Yet Bush is still seen as a better commander in chief and a stronger leader, by a 53 percent to 44 percent margin. The margin of error on those questions was plus or minus 5 percentage points. Bush also apparently picked up ground on education and health care in the third debate, which concentrated on domestic issues. In the most recent poll, 49 percent of all respondents said he would do a better job on education than Kerry, who had 46 percent. The October 9-10 poll had Bush at 43 percent and Kerry at 50 percent. On health care, 52 percent now say Kerry would do a better job, compared with 56 percent in the previous poll. Bush's percentages went up from 37 percent to 43 percent. Those questions had a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election (77 percent) than do Democrats (65 percent) and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in Gallup's likely voter model. Respondents who identified themselves a Bush voters were also nearly unanimous in thinking their candidate would win -- 88 percent. A quarter of Kerry voters said they think their candidate would lose. Regardless of how they are planning to vote, Americans appear to think this is the most important election in recent memory. When asked whether the outcome matters more than in previous elections, 72 percent of all respondents said yes, compared with 47 percent in 2000 and 41 percent in 1996. All those questions had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points

hehe the DNC activists' tactic of voting thousands of times on the online polls is now backfiring...Kerry is too liberal and America now knows it. Dark days ahead for the donkey party

quote:

Originally posted by AnotherWay83 and quit with the "liberal media bias". isn't sinclair broadcasting group airing a 90 minute anti-kerry documentary sometime soon? and that too on all of its 62 affiliated stations? there isn't a single - not one - station that's airing an anti-bush documentary of that length. still think the media has a liberal bias?

Yes. The majority do. I'm glad sinclair is airing that show, it will add some balance to the media's blatant bias towards Kerry this whole campaign. I'm also glad to see Fahrenhype 911 http://www.fahrenhype911.com to counter that idiots movie and prove he is a liar. I'm also still very pissed that Dan Rather still hasn't offered and official appology to our president for the mistake. Instead they just play the victim role. It's very uncourteous and unprofessional. time for Rather to retire.

quote:

Originally posted by speedracer_mec I already stated the margin of error nonsense. Acknowdledging who has a lead is different. If Kerry had the lead he will be hailed and have his dick sucked by the media. THis is the new poll out by CNN/GALLUP POLL BUSH UP BY 8 now... Is the media even reporting this or even showing it on their website without having to dig deep??? The media is ridiculous..Im glad Americans are not swaying to John skerry though. and http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-sr...4/charting.html

Hmmm...I wonder what happened. Did CNN run out of their favorite pollers in their pool?? Ya know, the one who are pro Kerry. Those ones?? Maybe they had to wing it with honest american voters.
I'm suprised they are even writing about it actually.

quote:

Originally posted by speedracer_mec Also the media should also mention that Kerry has only led 4 times in the last 57 major Polls. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html Yup but its a deadlock heat.....never mentioning or highlighting a BUSH LEAD with the same effect as pushing a KERRY BOOST to the extreme -_-;;

Gallop really does freak me out a bit. I really try not to pay too much attention to any of the polls, no matter which way it swings, but Gallop really does continue to astonish me. I think it's confusing a lot of other people as well. In fact, I might even go so far as to say it's sponsors - CNN and USAToday, are becoming more and more confused as well.

Keep in mind that this 8 pt. Bush lead came less than a week after Kerry moved into a one-point lead over Bush with likely voters. And what was it, 2 weeks prior to that, Gallop had Bush in a 13 pt. lead? So are we to believe that voters got swayed 14 points in less than 2 weeks towards Kerry, only to be swayed back 9 points for Bush?

Believe me, it's not just Kerry supporters who think Gallop is full of shit - there's plenty of Bush supporters who feel the same. I heard an earful once Kerry had that 1 point lead, and rightfully so.

We've discussed the discrepencies with Gallop in another thread, but I do want to point out this one in particular. Again, we see yet another leaning toward the right with Gallop:

RVs:
Total sample = 942

Republicans = 348 (37%)
Independents = 259 (27%)
Democrats = 327 (35%)

LVs:
Total sample = 788

Republicans = 296 (38%)
Independents = 211 (27%)
Democrats = 278 (35%)

So how is it possible that Kerry can do so well by Gallup’s own account in the three debates and lose ground?

Since we are talking about Gallup here, you already know the answer.

According to the internals from Gallup, they over sampled once again for Republicans in their latest poll. The LV sample they used for that hard-to-believe 8% lead for Bush sure enough had 3% more Republicans than Democrats, and the RV sample had 2% more Republicans than Democrats.

How likely is it that on Election Day the exit polls will reflect a 3% advantage for the GOP, given the registration gains that the Democrats have achieved, as well as the fact that such an advantage for the GOP has never existed in the last several decades? Again, the latest Gallup LV result is based on a sample that overstates GOP participation by 3% when compared to 2000 and understates Democratic participation by 4%.

Should you therefore pay a lot of attention to a poll that is swung 7% out of line with the 1996 and 2000 elections?

It’s Gallup. What do you think? But they sure managed to establish the "Kerry is losing ground" meme, didn’t they? See speedracer, the media can and always will cut both ways for both parties.

Keep in mind the reason that Gallup doesn’t weight for party ID in their samples is that they feel that party self-identification is too volatile to be used as a factor in constructing a sample. But is it? And again, what Gallup and other pollsters are trying to tell us with their polls are that if the election were held at that point in time, they predict with 95% certainty that the results would be as reported, plus or minus the MOE.

Yet take a look at the wild swings in self-identified party allegiance in the Gallup LV samples going back the last month or so, and ask yourself if it really is plausible that the electorate is this volatile:

October 14-16
GOP 38%
Dem 35%

October 9-10
GOP 38%
Dem 34%

October 1-3
GOP 35%
Dem 39%

September 24-26
GOP 43%
Dem 31%

September 13-15
GOP 40%
Dem 33%

Gallup wants you to believe that if the election was held at any time during the last four weeks, the GOP would constitute anywhere from a low of 35% up to 43% of those voting, and the Democrats would constitute anywhere from a low of 31% up to a high of 39% of those voting, again all of this happening in just one month. But if you factor out the one poll that resembled the 2000 exit polls, Gallup would have you believe that the GOP makes up between 38% and 43% of those voting, while the Democrats make up only between 31% and 35% of those voting.

First off, does anyone really believe that there are those kinds of swings in party self-identification in one month? And second, how can anyone conclude that Gallup’s likely voter sampling methodology, especially when compared to the 1996 and 2000 exit polls, isn’t biased in favor of the GOP?

---------------------

Now, in regards to the debates having an impact, well I tend to disagree, esp. if we take a look at the Newsweek poll:

1. Independents favor Kerry/Edwards by 11 points, 51-40.

2. First-time voters favor Kerry/Edwards by 21, 57-36.

3. Early voters favor Kerry/Edwards by 9, 52-43.

4. Young voters (18-29) favor Kerry/Edwards by 9, 50-40, and seniors (65+) favor Kerry/Edwards by 15, 54-39.

5. Men favor K/E by 50-46 and women favor Bush-Cheney by 49-43.


http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/m...TE=Oct+16,+2004


Of course it's Newsweek, so take it for what it's worth. But it does fall in line with what most pundits, even Conservative pundits agree with what's occurring with the campaigns - Kerry is talking more to the undecideds and independents, while Bush is banking on firing up his base voters, probably in hopes that they will do the work of talking to undecideds for him.

Who's strategy will work is anyone's guess, but I do think it's interesting to note that the reverse was certainly true a little less than a year ago when Dean was the clear frontrunner for the Dems. - The criticism against Dean was that he was firing up his liberal base too much while Bush and the conservatives were talking more to the center. I dunno if that means much, but it is interesting the reversal of strategy for both parties.

___________________
Whence September dusk grows crisper still,
with leaves all crimson conquered,
I yearn to shout,
and dance about,
and stick pickles in my honker...

quote:

Originally posted by tecnolover Yes. The majority do. I'm glad sinclair is airing that show, it will add some balance to the media's blatant bias towards Kerry this whole campaign.

Demonstrate with specific evidence how the media has been specifically biased towards Kerry. I want specific instances.

And in regards to Sinclair, you do know the difference between public viewing on a major media network from which no one has to pay for, verses a movie or DVD that you MUST go pay for or rent, right?

Let me ask you the reverse situation - Sinclair, who owns 25% of the major media networks, decides to air on it's 62 stations nationwide Fahrenheit 9/11. No discussion, no good reason to do so, other than Sinclair calls it a "news" show.

There's a movie that was once out in paying theatres and is now out on DVD that's highly critical of the Democratic leadership. Now let me ask you, would you consider that situation, "fair and balanced"?

If you do, what brand of banana peels are you smokin', and can you please pass it around?

quote:

I'm also glad to see Fahrenhype 911 http://www.fahrenhype911.com to counter that idiots movie and prove he is a liar.

There's a number of sites that counter those sites as well. What does that demonstrate, exactly? That Moore has an agenda against Bush? You didn't already know that yet? Why would you give a shit about individuals who PAY to go see his movie then? You don't have to pay to watch it, so why would you give a shit?

quote:

I'm also still very pissed that Dan Rather still hasn't offered and official appology to our president for the mistake.

Why aren't you equally pissed off that our president cannot account and fully verify his whereabouts for those 6 months in question? Granted, I'm pissed at Rather too, but the content given during that 60 Minutes session is not in dispute - our President was unaccounted for, and somehow got into the National Guard on a 25% of his entrance exam, skipping over some 150 folks who likely had to fight and die in Vietnam.

Your Vice President also had 5 deferrments because he "had other priorities".

You like having chickenshits like that in office?

quote:

Instead they just play the victim role. It's very uncourteous and unprofessional. time for Rather to retire.

It was highly unprofessional for Rather not to verify the documents. I also find it highly unprofessional that the White House release this document 1 week after the CBS Rather bruhaha:

http://www.glcq.com/docs/(71-02-19)recognition_memo.pdf

Notice anything similar to the Rather documents? Proportionally spaced font? Strange how they waited 1 week to release this document that looks so eerily darn familiar, type-writing style to the Rather memos, ain't it? Strange how this White House has sworn that ALL Bush Guard files have been released OH so long ago, only to have them continue to trickle out every Friday night. Don't you find it strange that they keep releasing/finding more Guard files and release them every Friday night? Are you even paying attention?:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...h_guard_records

___________________
Whence September dusk grows crisper still,
with leaves all crimson conquered,
I yearn to shout,
and dance about,
and stick pickles in my honker...

In other news, the Reuters/Zogby poll has the race neck and neck - both at 45%:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm..._poll_monday_dc

Just yesterday Zogby had Bush up 2%. Some say that Zogby and the Rasmussen polls are the most reliable. I dunno - as I've said before, I can't take any polls too seriously anymore. I personally think we're in for a pretty big surprise with all the newly registered voters, provided that most of the new ones vote that is. That's a big IF, I know, but I just have a feeling there.

I hate polls. I'm gettin' to that point where I just want the damn thing to end.

___________________
Whence September dusk grows crisper still,
with leaves all crimson conquered,
I yearn to shout,
and dance about,
and stick pickles in my honker...

Bush is giving yet another "major address" on all the cable networks. This is the second time this slimy bastard has utilized that darn liberal media to give "major addresses" and "policy speeches", only for them to be more fucking campaign stump vitriol crap towards his opponent.

Equal time given to Kerry? Was there equal time given to him the 1st time Bush pulled this bullshit on the cable networks few weeks back?

Damn that liberal media.

___________________
Whence September dusk grows crisper still,
with leaves all crimson conquered,
I yearn to shout,
and dance about,
and stick pickles in my honker...