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Originally posted by zig economically i wonder if it would be good for China to piss the western world off by even considering to invade at a serious level....

Do you really think the so-called West would stop selling goods to the world most dynamic economy because of Taiwan?

It'll be somewhat like Iraq - there was all this tension (I received a ridiculous amount of petitions asking to avoid the ward because it would trigger WWIII), but nothing happened other than the war itself. Japan and South Korea are not going to do anything to China.

If China annexes Taiwan, China's popularity may decrease but no side effects other than that.

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Originally posted by Fir3start3r Gotta love that Marxist wording...

Reuters is writing "Marxist" style now? Huh?

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The weapons were probably shipped from the States (via underground sources) but I highly doubt they had, "With Love, Washington" written on the crates. As for the U.S. they certainly are in a tight spot of over this situation. Everybody and their dog knows that China has a HUGE untapped market just waiting for someone, anyone to fill the void. Read this article and you'll see why the U.S are upset. Basically China just slapped them in the face... http://www.usaid.gov/policy/budget/cbj2005/ane/cn.html

And I do agree with your assessment with an interesting link to boot. Just thought your Marxist comment was a bit of a stretch, sorry.

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Last edited by MisterOpus1 on Mar-15-2005 at 15:32

I agree with you Lira, people would be pissed off, outraged even, and sanctions would happen.

But not a shot would be fired from the western side.

However if the west pulled the plug on trade with China we basicly wouldn't be able to buy anything(well not at the current price), clothes, electronics and so on would cost shit loads more.

Selfishness will always prevail.

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Originally posted by Dervish I agree with you Lira, people would be pissed off, outraged even, and sanctions would happen. But not a shot would be fired from the western side. However if the west pulled the plug on trade with China we basicly wouldn't be able to buy anything(well not at the current price), clothes, electronics and so on would cost shit loads more. Selfishness will always prevail.

everyone is right here, in a way. (well except for Capitalizt, he is freaking clueless on China)

Taiwan is *only* an issue since thats where the US led insurgency was run out of China before the CCPs rise. therefore its existence is based on the US's support, and the great and everpresent force that is nationalism.

On chinas side, they see Taiwan as less of a Chechnya than a bargaining tool. they have threatened violence for decades, but nothing so far.

it seems that neither China nor Taiwan can keep from posturing, certainly China has might, but Taiwan has the west - AND China still sees Taiwan as Chinese, which keeps them from blowing the ever living shit out of them, outside of Western support. eventually the two sides may agree, but expect more of the same.

now about the Uighur in Xian...thats a more Western problem facing China...luckily bordering on Central Asia means fundamentalist problems take awhile to materialize|

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Originally posted by Lira Do you really think the so-called West would stop selling goods to the world most dynamic economy because of Taiwan? It'll be somewhat like Iraq - there was all this tension (I received a ridiculous amount of petitions asking to avoid the ward because it would trigger WWIII), but nothing happened other than the war itself. Japan and South Korea are not going to do anything to China. If China annexes Taiwan, China's popularity may decrease but no side effects other than that.

i think its wrong to assume that nothing will happen to China economically as a result of an attack or an invasion...some obvious things standout..

Obviously the USA wont stand back and let China attack at will the least it will do is to impose economic sanctions..and these economic sanctions will be severe..and even if no other economic power were to impose sanctions only the USA it would still cause major difficulties for the Chinese economy

The Chinese have a 100 billion dollar trade surplus with the US this would dry up overnight

They also recieve about 50 Billion dollars of direct investment yearly most of this from US companies,due to sanctions this would also halt and the emerging vested interests in China would not be happy to see the inflows of money slowing.

But these are only obvious ones,there are many more...with its economy driving ahead the Chinese have a huge appetite for oil and only have a 20 day surplus on current estimates(and this also poses a military question mark for an attack)Russia is one of its main suppliers of oil and dont forget its neighbour,the Russians would not ignore a military attack by one of its neighbours(dont forget history)and may also impose sanctions of its oil exports...Russia is not desirious of of China developing into a superpower to quickly and this could be another reason to halt oil exports..in a nutshell..Russia has oil...China needs oil...

Also China has no desire to destroy its relationship with the USA and dont forget the public relations disaster the 2008 olympics would be if an attack took place before this

But these are only some reasons....and thats before even touching on military logistics and the scale of such an attack,because the Taiwanese have massive defence systems...but we shall have to wait and see...........

and if war broke out Disneyland China wouldn't open!

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Originally posted by biznology everyone is right here, in a way. (well except for Capitalizt, he is freaking clueless on China) Taiwan is *only* an issue since thats where the US led insurgency was run out of China before the CCPs rise. therefore its existence is based on the US's support, and the great and everpresent force that is nationalism. On chinas side, they see Taiwan as less of a Chechnya than a bargaining tool. they have threatened violence for decades, but nothing so far. it seems that neither China nor Taiwan can keep from posturing, certainly China has might, but Taiwan has the west - AND China still sees Taiwan as Chinese, which keeps them from blowing the ever living shit out of them, outside of Western support. eventually the two sides may agree, but expect more of the same. now about the Uighur in Xian...thats a more Western problem facing China...luckily bordering on Central Asia means fundamentalist problems take awhile to materialize|

Haha, the Uighur!!! Quite possibly the best name of a nationality ever. (Pronounced Wee-Gore). Just had to get that in.

But in all seriousness, yes, fundamentalism is starting to rise among the Uighur, who are actually among the most devout Islamicists in the world (Think: Wahhabism).


Also, sanctions would hurt Walmart more than they would hurt China.

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Originally posted by MisterOpus1 Reuters is writing "Marxist" style now? Huh? And I do agree with your assessment with an interesting link to boot. Just thought your Marxist comment was a bit of a stretch, sorry.

Sorry, I was referring to the quoteree, not the quoterer since Reuters didn't actually say it.

I hate Internet semantics...

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Originally posted by zig i think its wrong to assume that nothing will happen to China economically as a result of an attack or an invasion...some obvious things standout.. Obviously the USA wont stand back and let China attack at will the least it will do is to impose economic sanctions..and these economic sanctions will be severe..and even if no other economic power were to impose sanctions only the USA it would still cause major difficulties for the Chinese economy

In a worst case scenario, Taiwan would become another Tibet.

The US wouldn't be naive enough to impose major economic sanctions on China simply because other countries would have a broader access to the Chinese economy, and these countries wouldn't hesitate in expanding their business. Most likely, the US would whine to the Security Council they once ignored.

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Originally posted by zig The Chinese have a 100 billion dollar trade surplus with the US this would dry up overnight

Do you really think big companies like IBM would then withdraw from China, and lose a 1 billion people market? Not likely.

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Originally posted by zig They also recieve about 50 Billion dollars of direct investment yearly most of this from US companies,due to sanctions this would also halt and the emerging vested interests in China would not be happy to see the inflows of money slowing.

Since I said these sanctions wouldn't exist, this wouldn't happen either.

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Originally posted by zig But these are only obvious ones,there are many more...with its economy driving ahead the Chinese have a huge appetite for oil and only have a 20 day surplus on current estimates(and this also poses a military question mark for an attack)Russia is one of its main suppliers of oil and dont forget its neighbour,the Russians would not ignore a military attack by one of its neighbours(dont forget history)and may also impose sanctions of its oil exports...Russia is not desirious of of China developing into a superpower to quickly and this could be another reason to halt oil exports..in a nutshell..Russia has oil...China needs oil...

Russia has oil, China needs oil, Russia needs money, China buys oil. The Russian economy is still very fragile, and Taiwan doesn't threaten Moscow, and the Kremlin knows that.

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Originally posted by zig Also China has no desire to destroy its relationship with the USA and dont forget the public relations disaster the 2008 olympics would be if an attack took place before this

In three years, people wouldn't mind the invasion that much anymore. It's not like Iraq, where they're "fighting terrorism", but they're unifying the country. Most people wouldn't tell China and Taiwan apart anyway. Besides, by then people would be complaining about Tibet more than about Taiwan, unless they get themselves a Dalai Lama.

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Originally posted by zig But these are only some reasons....and thats before even touching on military logistics and the scale of such an attack,because the Taiwanese have massive defence systems...but we shall have to wait and see...........

Taiwanese have massive defence systems and the Chinese army is not only huge but, if anything at all, a high male death rate would finally balance the man:woman ratio

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I can't understand why we think that if China were to invade or otherwise harm Taiwan it would be a "China vs. USA," type situation. If China were to go into Taiwan it would be the world (or at least the majority) that would retaliate in some form or another.

If you want a parallel, don't look at the second Gulf War, look at the first. Iraq invades Kuwait and you have wide-scale retaliation from a broad spetrum of countries. If the US were to condemn China and impose sanctions, not only would they not be alone in their action, I believe it would "black list" China in the eyes of the rest of the world.

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Originally posted by Lira In a worst case scenario, Taiwan would become another Tibet. The US wouldn't be naive enough to impose major economic sanctions on China simply because other countries would have a broader access to the Chinese economy, and these countries wouldn't hesitate in expanding their business. Most likely, the US would whine to the Security Council they once ignored. Do you really think big companies like IBM would then withdraw from China, and lose a 1 billion people market? Not likely. Since I said these sanctions wouldn't exist, this wouldn't happen either. Russia has oil, China needs oil, Russia needs money, China buys oil. The Russian economy is still very fragile, and Taiwan doesn't threaten Moscow, and the Kremlin knows that. In three years, people wouldn't mind the invasion that much anymore. It's not like Iraq, where they're "fighting terrorism", but they're unifying the country. Most people wouldn't tell China and Taiwan apart anyway. Besides, by then people would be complaining about Tibet more than about Taiwan, unless they get themselves a Dalai Lama. Taiwanese have massive defence systems and the Chinese army is not only huge but, if anything at all, a high male death rate would finally balance the man:woman ratio

Agree to disagree i think....most people forget though that although China is a huge country with a huge population,the reality is that the GDP of China is only the equivalent of The United Kingdom,and the UK economy is not the largest in europe,several are larger.

Undoubtably China is growing fast albeit from a low base,China still faces many problems economically and socially and i dont think a hostile takeover of Taiwan would help them either way at this point in time.

I think the focus will now shift to the EU in the next few weeks as the EU is supposidly about to lift a 15 year embargo on arms sales to China after Tiananmen Sq......nice timing by the EU.....ow yeah and lastly the USA are bound by an agreement with Taiwan(The Taiwan Relations Act)to help Taiwan defend itself,but this probably means nothing at the end of the day unless the Americans dig their heels in.

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Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov Haha, the Uighur!!! Quite possibly the best name of a nationality ever. (Pronounced Wee-Gore). Just had to get that in. But in all seriousness, yes, fundamentalism is starting to rise among the Uighur, who are actually among the most devout Islamicists in the world (Think: Wahhabism). Also, sanctions would hurt Walmart more than they would hurt China.

yeah its a shame Wahabism is giving way to more fundamentalist views. a spiritual and less follow the dots version of Islam is what the world needs now.

then again the same is true of most religions and their fundamentalists|

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