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George Smiley
Supreme tranceaddict

Registered: Jan 2004
Location: 9 Bywater Street, Chelsea, London
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Good thread and good question! (Well, only cos I have loads of opinions on this!)
First of all I'll talk about Iraq and then the wider Middle East policy later.
On Iraq: Saddam needed to go, no question. The sanctions were working fine, stopping him from developing WMDs, but the people were suffering enormously. So leaving aside the bullshit about the "war on terror", there were three logical courses of action (the position taken by the British government who never equated Iraq with the "war on terror"). 1) Keep the status quo - Saddam gets no WMDs but the people keep dying. 2) Remove the sanctions - the people get 'better' but Saddam most certainly restarts his WMD program and his plans to conquer the Middle East and it's oil. 3) Remove Saddam by force - perfect! Get rid of Saddam and his nasty plans and save the people who will want a democracy, or so we thought...
A severe intelligence fuck up or lazy lazy analysis of Iraq and it's society meant that we have the mess we have today. IMO, the Iraq war should never have been equated to the "war on terror" as that is one of the reasons the insurgency has been so bad. What we should have done is sponsor Sadr's group to remove Saddam and install a government (obviously following a deal done over the inclusion of Sunnis and Kurds in the government).
On the wider Middle East: The timing of Iraq was all wrong. Whether America said it was part of the "war or terror" or not is irrelevant due to the timing cos the al-Qaida types would claim it was and act accordingly. IMO "we" should have done three things before we turned our attention to Iraq:
1) Finish what we started in Afghanistan. The world was united behind us due to the events on 9/11 (including the Arab states and probably the Arab street as well for a good part). We really could have routed al-Qaida and the Taliban for good. Instead troops were pulled out and sent to Iraq hampering our efforts there and the result is that al-Qaida/Taliban have been allowed to regroup and build their strength up.
2) Lebanon: Aid should be poured into Lebanon to make it as successful as it was in the early 70s. The neocons wanted a model democracy in the Middle East so it would be attractive to the rest of the Middle East population and they would demand similar (so the theory goes). Hariri's assassination led to the withdrawal of Syria which gave Lebanon a great chance to consolidate democarcy. It is vital Hizballah are included in this but America has a bee in it's bonnet since they killed all those Marines that led to America's withdrawal from Lebanon in the 80s.
3) Palestine: America has the power to enforce a settlement on Israel and Palestine, but domestic pressure states that they have to be anti-Palestine and rabidly pro-Israel. America (and EU) needs to use it's influence over Israel to come to some solution as this will go a long way to solving the rest of the Middle East's problems.
And then they could sort Iraq out!
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Jun-17-2007 15:21
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