quote:

Originally posted by Zentac_75 *waiting for an astronomy major to relieve my worries*

here I am...

don't worry...you and yours are waaaaaaay more likely to die in a car crash.

We've detected 90+ % of Near Earth Objects larger than 1km...Those would be bad no matter when or where they hit. Objects that are small can still cause global, regional, or local catastrophes, but in those cases, it starts to depend on where and how it hits. In the end rest assured knowing this:

1) the objects that are big enough to wipe us out wont pop out of nowhere and hit us within 10 days, a la armageddon. we'd have years, probably decades or centuries to plan and try to do something about it (i.e. orbital modifications)
2) if the object is too small to be detected easily, then it's too small to do any significant damage. in this case you can start to reassure yourself that there's alot of surface area across the globe, and the odd of it hitting the surface where you're clubbing that night are low.

And last thing. Dont freak out when you hear these reports initially. these arent heading straight for us, these NEOs are orbiting the sun just like us. The way this kind of thing works is like this- first astronomers look at pictures taken from observatories, and see a new "star". they take more pictures and if they see that its moving across the sky, they realize its not a star, but an asteroid in orbit. then based on literally 3 pictures (locations in space), they determine the orbit, but this has lots of error. They feed that orbit into their simulations, and see if sometime down the line where it is going to be coincides with where we're going to be. At this point alarm bells go off and CNN gets the story. What you dont hear is that as soon as this happens, astronomers go back into their records and look for the object in archived exposures from past sky urvey/pictures/etc. this gives them more data points, and reduced the error in the object's orbit. then they feed this newer, more accurate orbit into the sims, and see that its not going to collide after all.

I was just explaining this to family over christmas dinner. we astronomers get excited when things go crash in the sky. if this thing does hit mars, It'll be awesome.

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quote:

Originally posted by Dr. DAS 1 in 75 odds is pretty good considering... What scares me is this thing is 50 Meters across, moving at 13.5 Kilometers per SECOND and nobody noticed it until it was within 7.5 Million Kilometers of Earth. Had it hit Earth, it would have released energy equal to 3 Million Tonnes of TNT and created a crater 1Km wide - about the same as the crater in Arizona. Best estimates are that it will miss Mars by only 50 000Km. SOURCE: CNN SOURCE: NASA How cool would this be to watch on the 6 o'clock news?!?!

Haha! Take this Martians!

You won't get me with your fancy death rays!

PS: Dave, check your PM

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quote:

Originally posted by chinamon not true. i say "ugh" but i am a tranny.

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Originally posted by kotsy lol colour me retarded

quote:

Originally posted by catinthehat (i.e. orbital modifications)

Ah...which object's orbit, the earth's or the NEO? Is the modification of earth's orbit every discussed, even as a remote, crazy possibility?

quote:

Originally posted by catinthehat here I am... 1) the objects that are big enough to wipe us out wont pop out of nowhere and hit us within 10 days, a la armageddon. we'd have years, probably decades or centuries to plan and try to do something about it (i.e. orbital modifications) 2) if the object is too small to be detected easily, then it's too small to do any significant damage. in this case you can start to reassure yourself that there's alot of surface area across the globe, and the odd of it hitting the surface where you're clubbing that night are low. And last thing. Dont freak out when you hear these reports initially. these arent heading straight for us, these NEOs are orbiting the sun just like us. The way this kind of thing works is like this- first astronomers look at pictures taken from observatories, and see a new "star". they take more pictures and if they see that its moving across the sky, they realize its not a star, but an asteroid in orbit. then based on literally 3 pictures (locations in space), they determine the orbit, but this has lots of error. They feed that orbit into their simulations, and see if sometime down the line where it is going to be coincides with where we're going to be. At this point alarm bells go off and CNN gets the story. What you dont hear is that as soon as this happens, astronomers go back into their records and look for the object in archived exposures from past sky urvey/pictures/etc. this gives them more data points, and reduced the error in the object's orbit. then they feed this newer, more accurate orbit into the sims, and see that its not going to collide after all. if this thing does hit mars, It'll be awesome.

Thanks...I wasn't 'freaking out' I just like hearing the probablity of impact is relatively innaccurate from someone who knows what they are talking about (hopefully ). I know it is a science...I just find it hard to believe that we can accurately estimate the course of an immense object travelling at unimaginable speeds along a previously uncharted orbit. Finding it in an infinity sky is accomplishment enough. ANYWAY....

Are there projections of what it may look like in the sky if said collision does occur ??? Do you and your astronomer buddies have a pool going of some sorts lol ??? Will the impact even be visible on our side of the planet ???

Thanks for answering (not in a googling mood this week)

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quote:

Originally posted by catinthehat 1) we'd have years, probably decades or centuries to plan and try to do something about it (i.e. orbital modifications)

do you have a source for this? the sky is very big (understatement of the year) and i've read that we have the observational capacity to see only a small fraction of it at a time.

in the grand scheme of things, an asteroid hitting one of the planets in our solar system is a non-event. just in '94 astronomers captured 20+ consecutive impacts on Jupiter which were fragments (up to 2KM in diameter) of the same COMET.

also, has anyone seen pictures of the far side of our moon (which is obviously much closer to us than mars), it's covered in craters from asteroid/meteor impacts.


regardless, we have bigger problems to worry about.

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Originally posted by rabbitjoker The odds are much better that it collides with Uranus...

LOL @ uranus, how immature of me i know but i cant help laugh when i read a sentence like that. I mean come on, who else pulled a smirk??

quote:

Originally posted by Zentac_75 I just find it hard to believe that we can accurately estimate the course of an immense object travelling at unimaginable speeds along a previously uncharted orbit.

Yeah, math IS pretty hard thing to believe.

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quote:

Originally posted by phlog do you have a source for this? the sky is very big (understatement of the year) and i've read that we have the observational capacity to see only a small fraction of it at a time. in the grand scheme of things, an asteroid hitting one of the planets in our solar system is a non-event. just in '94 astronomers captured 20+ consecutive impacts on Jupiter which were fragments (up to 2KM in diameter) of the same COMET. also, has anyone seen pictures of the far side of our moon (which is obviously much closer to us than mars), it's covered in craters from asteroid/meteor impacts. regardless, we have bigger problems to worry about.

Jupiter and the Moon don't have existing lifeforms...

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quote:

Originally posted by chinamon not true. i say "ugh" but i am a tranny.

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Originally posted by kotsy lol colour me retarded

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Originally posted by Cosmic Fur Yeah, math IS pretty hard thing to believe.

ha ha...jackass.

phlog knows what I meant with my skepticism.

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Originally posted by EvilTree Jupiter and the Moon don't have existing lifeforms...

whats your point? mars doesn't either to our knowledge.

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If there is life on Mars, which is belived to exist in ice under the surface if it exists anywhere, the impact from an asteroid would create a fresh crater and stir up all kinds of dust. I doubt anything would survive the impact at ground zero, but it would give our rovers an excellent place to explore the underlying layers of the martian environment.

...or a bunch of Marvin the Martians will come running out of the crater screaming "oh noes!"

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