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| quote: | Originally posted by Q5echo
not necessarily. youve presumed the "Messiah" has already been annointed. it may seem that way to you supporters of course but lets be honest, right?...he's not.
the race is now, going forward (b/c it's not over yet), for Obama to lose. which is completely plausible. |
From here, barring some unimaginable fuck-up, Obama really can't lose the pledged delegate count or the popular vote. He is leading her by 10 points in national polls. If all this holds - and there is little reason to suspect it won't - Hillary can't expect to win this without usurping the direct will of the people.
This is an email from the Obama team:
| quote: | Projections show the most likely outcome of yesterday's elections will be that Hillary Clinton gained 187 delegates, and we gained 183.
That's a net gain of 4 delegates out of more than 370 delegates available from all the states that voted.
For comparison, that's less than half our net gain of 9 delegates from the District of Columbia alone. It's also less than our net gain of 8 from Nebraska, or 12 from Washington State. And it's considerably less than our net gain of 33 delegates from Georgia.
The task for the Clinton campaign yesterday was clear. In order to have a plausible path to the nomination, they needed to score huge delegate victories and cut into our lead.
They failed.
[...]
The chatter among pundits may have gotten better for the Clinton campaign after last night, but by failing to cut into our lead, the math -- and their chances of winning -- got considerably worse.
Today, we still have a lead of more than 150 delegates, and there are only 611 pledged delegates left to win in the upcoming contests.
By a week from today, we will have competed in Wyoming and Mississippi. Two more states and 45 more delegates will be off the table. |
It's over. She's finished. Making this go all the way to the convention is only going to tear the party in half. I know that Hillary isn't particularly concerned about that, but Dean and the rest of the DLC should be. Like Opus said, if the Democrats are going to win in November, the superdelegates should start throwing their weight behind Obama and the DLC should be having a word in Clinton's ear right now. A protracted, spiteful contest from here isn't going to benefit anyone, not even Hillary.
| quote: | | if he manages to err enough, forced or unforced, we'll quickly see a tipping of the super-delegate scales and won't in any way be an illegitimate victory like youre suggesting. i'm not saying it won't be spun that way (i wouldn't expect anything less from the Messiah friendly press) but it would be a reflection or referendum on the Democrat party structure itself, not an abuse of it. |
Of course, but if Hillary were to win in such a way there would still be riots in the streets, whether it's within the rules of the Democratic primary system or not. If the Democrats want to lose in November, all they have to do is completely ignore the will of their supporters. That's what a Hillary win will necessarily amount to.
| quote: | | she'll also try her damnedest to get those votes counted in Flo-ri-da and Michigan in which again was a consequence of the Party structure and policy. |
I don't think any Obama supporters would begrudge Hillary a "do-over" in those states, but there is no way that she can expect to be given delegates from those contests when, you know, she was the only candidate on the fucking ballot.
You know what Q? I think I finally understand why you Republicans hate her so much...
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