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TranceAddict Forums > Other > Political Discussion / Debate > Chrysler will not repay its "loans" even if it exits bankruptcy
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Capitalizt
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Feb 2005
Location: USA

quote:
Originally posted by jerZ07002
Let's revise your math and make it a little more realistic:

Government loan written off: 7B bailout - 1.45B equity stake = 5.55B lost

Rough estimate of wages: 30K employees @ 50K a year = 1.5B
Rough Estaimte of yearly tax revenue on wages: 1.5B * 20% (very low guess of fed ETR on wages) = 300M.

aggregate after tax income: 1.5B - 300M = 1.2B
estimate of wages used in consumption: 1.2B * 90% (1 - 10% generous savings rate) = 1.08B
estimate of profit margin on consumption: 1.08B * 15% (estimated profits made by 3rd parties on consumption) = 162M
estimate of taxes on profits: 162M * 35% = 57M

estimate of wages component of consumption costs: 1.08B * 30% = 324M
estimate of taxes on those wages: 324M * 20% (same estimate from above) = 65M

sum of estimate of taxes resulting from one year: 300M + 57M + 65M = 422M.

Take the 422M and divide it by a 6% discount rate results in a value of the income stream at 7.033B dollars. Add to that the 1.4M equity stake, and the result is 8.433B. Additionally, the costs incurred by chrysler would also be profits for another company that would be subject to tax as well as pay wages to employees who would pay taxes.

Obviously, I use some pretty unreliable guesses, but the point should be obvious.


k.

I have no idea what you did there..lol. But regardless of the secondary benefits and partial recoupment the government may get by keeping them zombified, Chrysler is still basically saying "FU" to taxpayers by refusing to pay back the $7+ billion. We are taking it up the @$$ and the government is letting it happen. I think a large portion of the "loans" made to banks and other bailout companies won't be paid back either. It's annoying but not surprising.

Old Post May-06-2009 18:50  United States
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jerZ07002
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Dec 2006
Location:

quote:
Originally posted by Capitalizt
k.

I have no idea what you did there..lol.


yeah you do (you even say mention secondary benefits in your next line). i just showed some the general concept of the secondary benefits with some really really rough guesses.


quote:
Originally posted by Capitalizt
But regardless of the secondary benefits and partial recoupment the government may get by keeping them zombified, Chrysler is still basically saying "FU" to taxpayers by refusing to pay back the $7+ billion. We are taking it up the @$$ and the government is letting it happen. I think a large portion of the "loans" made to banks and other bailout companies won't be paid back either. It's annoying but not surprising.


the 'loan' was not given to chrysler with the intent for it to be paid back. if you remember, the 'loan' was only to be paid back if the company couldn't agree to restructuring terms within a specified period, which they couldn't (thus, bankruptcy).

Old Post May-06-2009 18:58  United States
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pmoisse
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Oct 2001
Location: Amsterdam, NL (formerly Montreal QC)

quote:
Originally posted by jerZ07002
the 'loan' was not given to chrysler with the intent for it to be paid back. if you remember, the 'loan' was only to be paid back if the company couldn't agree to restructuring terms within a specified period, which they couldn't (thus, bankruptcy).


So either way, it should have been called a "gift" right from the start since there was never any intention to repay, bankruptcy or not


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Old Post May-06-2009 19:01  Canada
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Magnetonium
Dubstep = Douchestep



Registered: Sep 2001
Location: Port Burwell, Ontario, Canada



I wonder now - just for how long are they going to be giving out billions and billions in loans like they've been doing for the past few months. I dont see the end in sight. Plus, obviously the money is going down the shitter anyway. America is getting closer to bankruptcy - not just the faltering corporations.


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Old Post May-06-2009 21:03  Canada
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jerZ07002
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Dec 2006
Location:

quote:
Originally posted by Magnetonium


I wonder now - just for how long are they going to be giving out billions and billions in loans like they've been doing for the past few months. I dont see the end in sight. Plus, obviously the money is going down the shitter anyway. America is getting closer to bankruptcy - not just the faltering corporations.


how close do you suppose Japan is to bankruptcy? how about Belgium, Italy, Germany, of France? Japan has a much larger national debt as a percentage of GDP (smaller percentage external), and German and France both have a national debt that is comparable with the US when evaluated as a percentage of GDP. Nevertheless, no one says that germany is going bankrupt anytime soon. Multiply Germany's population by 3.5 and their national debt would likely be 11 trillion dollars also.

BTW - the chances of a country going bankrupt when it can print currency and issues debt denominated in its own currency are so remote it's nearly impossible. A country goes bankrupt when it can't pay its debt. Well, it should be obvious that regardless of how much debt the US issues it will always be able to pay its debt, as long as it is denominated in USD, because the government can print as much money as it wants (that obviously has adverse consequences, e.g., inflation, higher interest rates, investors may eventually require the debt to be issued in another currency). So, to be more precise, when debt gets to an unmanageable level, what actually happens is the value of the currency will depreciate against other currencies and the interest rate on the debt required by investors will increase.

Old Post May-06-2009 21:38  United States
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Groundhog Boy
Stupidity Offends Me



Registered: May 2005
Location: New York, NY

quote:
Originally posted by Capitalizt
Lets do some math. $7 billion bailout ($7,000,000,000.00) / 30,000 employees = $233,333 per employee.

I highly doubt the missing tax revenue from those lost jobs will ever approach this amount.

I think you're ignoring all of the impact that this has on non-Chrysler companies that support Chrysler (i.e. parts companies that are in jeopardy).


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Old Post May-06-2009 23:23  United States
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Groundhog Boy
Stupidity Offends Me



Registered: May 2005
Location: New York, NY

quote:
Originally posted by pmoisse
So either way, it should have been called a "gift" right from the start since there was never any intention to repay, bankruptcy or not


Ford never got bailout money


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"Go back to bed america your government is in control
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Old Post May-06-2009 23:27  United States
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Capitalizt
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Feb 2005
Location: USA

quote:
Originally posted by Groundhog Boy
Ford never got bailout money


not yet, but it's only a matter of time before more companies start groveling before the government.. We've got plenty of paper to waste, after all..

Old Post May-07-2009 12:04  United States
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pmoisse
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Oct 2001
Location: Amsterdam, NL (formerly Montreal QC)

quote:
Originally posted by Groundhog Boy
Ford never got bailout money


I know. I first saw this chop well before any of the bailout money was first handed out to any of the auto makers and thought it was pretty funny.


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Old Post May-07-2009 20:30  Canada
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Fir3start3r
Armin Acolyte



Registered: Oct 2001
Location: Toronto, ON, Canada

The hammer is coming down on the Canadian side...

quote:

UPDATE 2-CAW says Canada issued ultimatum on new GM pact
Thu May 7, 2009 10:14pm BST
* CAW says May 15 is deadline for new GM deal

* Says GM bankruptcy protection likely in Canada, U.S.

* Warns GM Canada plants could be liquidated if no deal (In U.S. dollars unless noted)

TORONTO, May 7 (Reuters) - Canada has warned the Canadian Auto Workers that General Motors (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) would get no government aid and would likely liquidate its operations in the country if the union fails to make more contract concessions, the head of the CAW said on Thursday.

GM, which earlier in the day reported a net loss of $6 billion in the first quarter, faces a May 15 deadline to reach a new deal with the union, CAW President Ken Lewenza said at a press conference.

Senior union members met with representatives of GM and the governments of Canada and the province of Ontario on Wednesday and were told that GM Canada's costs had to come down to the same level as Toyota Canada's (7203.T: Quote, Profile, Research).

"If we don't get a deal, and here's the ultimatum, the governments will provide no financial support, and GM Canada will be liquidated," Lewenza said.


If an agreement is reached, GM may qualify for billions of dollars in long-term loans.

Lewenza said government officials also assured the union that the company's Canadian operations would be protected if GM filed for bankruptcy protection in the United States and Canada. He said a bankruptcy filing seemed likely no matter what happened.

"It was very clear that General Motors is in serious trouble," Lewenza said.

Industry Minister Tony Clement was asked in Parliament on Thursday why he was putting heavy pressure on the GM workers.

"What will not work is if the union heads do not want to be part of the solution," he responded. "Then the choice of the workers is to have a job that's cost-competitive or to have no job at all."

GM and the CAW reached a new collective agreement in March that the automaker said would wipe nearly C$1 billion ($855 million) related to retirement costs off its books.

The Canadian government later said the GM-CAW cost savings plan did not go far enough.

Jim Stanford, the CAW's economist, said that the labor costs of GM Canada's active workers were already very close to the costs of Toyota Canada's active workers.

But GM, which has been in operation in Canada for nearly a century, has about five retirees for every worker, while Toyota Canada, which set up shop in 1987, has almost no retirees.

That means so-called "legacy costs" are far higher at GM than at Toyota, which otherwise has similar worker compensation.

"It is impossible to imagine that the 5,000 or 6,000 or 7,000 GM (Canada) employees that are left at the end of this process could somehow pay -- they'd be working for free and then some -- they'd have to take money out of their own pockets to pay back to GM."

GM Canada currently employs about 10,300 hourly workers but has said that number will fall substantially as planned plant closures take effect.

After the GM-CAW agreement in March the union moved on to Chrysler and reached a deal near the end of April to cut costs by about C$240 million annually, or C$19 an hour, based on the number of hours Chrysler Canada employees worked last year.

That helped Chrysler qualify for long-term funding in Canada and the United States, but the company was still forced to seek U.S. bankruptcy protection in order to get all of its costs in line.

The governments said they would provide Chrysler with so-called debtor-in-possession financing to help it emerge from Chapter 11 protection.

Chrysler has about 1.5 retirees for every active worker.

Chrysler Canada spokeswoman Mary Gauthier said on Thursday the company had recently received the final C$250,000 installment of its C$1 billion in Canadian short-term loans.

GM Canada also recently received some short-term funding in Canada, accepting a C$500 million of a possible C$3 billion in loans, to help it restructure in time to qualify for longer-term aid.

A GM Canada spokesman could not immediately be reached for comment.


>>Source<<


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Old Post May-07-2009 21:28  Canada
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TranceAddict Forums > Other > Political Discussion / Debate > Chrysler will not repay its "loans" even if it exits bankruptcy
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