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Hear ye, hear ye! I have updated my model, and I hereby bring you the most accurate predictions that will be proven wrong in the next few hours:- Spain: A 1 in 5 chance of winning. According to the Excel gods, they will presumably win the tournament by completing 43,000 passes in midfield until the opposition full-back forgets why he is even there and lets them through. Sí, pasarán.
- Argentina: Knicks in 7. Lionel Messi may be elderly by football standards but is still apparently classified by my model as a weather event, although I'm not sure the 14% makes much sense. Either way, not my call, so.
- France: A 1 in 10 shot at victory, lurking in the background like a luxury car with military applications. Sort of Lupin if France cast Idris Elba as James Bond. Should anyone steal my dreams, let it be France.
- The late United Kingdom of Portugal, Brazil and the Algarves: A 1 in 10 chance of triumph. Actually 1 in 20 for either Brazil or Portugal, but I'm making these victories interchangeable because I want to give us a bump up the list.
- Colombia: 1 in 20, with a little rounding up of the percentages. They used to be so fun to watch in the good old Higuita days that I kind of hope Colombia will go down in football history for something other than Shakira's "Waka Waka Eh Eh".
- England: A 7.2% probability of ultimate success, which means the model has boldly predicted three weeks of national euphoria followed by frantic revisions to chants about World Wars and World Cups. Doo dah, doo dah.
- The Netherlands: 3.4%. Roughly the same as the heavyweights Germany and Ecuador, who have, on average, two World Cups each. Am I torturing the figures so they say what I want? Kind of. Am I doing it now just to annoy Mid? Kind of also yes. Do I really hope the world will finally be painted orange? Definitely yes. The dream begins, Dutchly putting the "van" in mild statistical vandalism, a dusty orange jersey, and Hup Hup Holland!
- Japan or South Korea: A 2.7% probability that either might win, which is wonderfully dangerous. Fine, Japan is actually doing the heavy lifting here, but please let me dream. I know South Korea still have just a 0.4% chance of pulling off their greatest upset since 2002 and their win over Germany. But this is, mathematically, a number. A tiny number. A number that looks like it should be printed on the side effects leaflet for a medication. But it is not zero, and therefore it is legally binding emotional evidence that Son Heung-min might lift the World Cup. I refuse to let this go.
May the chips fall where they may.
| quote: | Originally posted by 72hrpartyanimal
(Mexico vs Elon). |

Mexico will likely win, so get ready for a great evening!
Edit: Wait, why do I have a cousin on the pitch? 
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Last edited by Lira on Jun-11-2026 at 19:52
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