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dennis
Senior tranceaddict
Registered: Aug 2004
Location: Forest Hills, Queens, NY
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| quote: | Originally posted by hardcore trancer
It is all about shifting attentions so that they can do their dirty works.God knows what type of massacre is happening in Gaza right now. |
I hope they get rid of enough to not casue any more problems.
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 Jul-17-2006 04:22 
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Epicurus
Dark Proggy House Beats
Registered: Feb 2004
Location: New Brunswick, NJ, US / Montreal, QC, Canada
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| quote: | Originally posted by Goashem
Epicurus, maybe you can shed light on this for me as a lebanese. israel has been targeting alot of civilian infrustructure, there was alot of civilian causulties. wouldnt that skew the lebanese opinion against israel? and see the hezbollah as heroes that stand up to the bully? |
You make a good point, and I'll try to explain my position with regards to this as best as I can. As I mentioned previously, Israel is hoping that a firm retaliation to the kidnapping is going to "send the message" to the Lebanese government and to the populace that an armed Hizballah patrolling the Southern Lebanese border with Israel is unacceptable, and that a very heavy price will be payed for any transgressions.
The Israeli operation is a delicate one, in that they must use only the necessary amount of force to make their point and avoid civilian casualties at all costs. As much as I despise the IDF, I doubt they're targeting civilians purposefully (although some may disagree with me and probably be able to put up a robust argument) as there is no strategic benefit to that whatsoever -- quite the contrary of course. In other words, the killing of civilians isn't part of their strategy. Bluntly, they're fucking up, and big time. And if they keep on fucking up, the reverse effect that you mentioned may indeed occur. The longer this operation drags on, the more this benefits Hizballah, and they know it. This is why I prefaced my earlier post with "If the situation does not escalate any further, and normalcy returns to Lebanon in the near future (i.e. one-two weeks)", because if this conflict spirals out of control and keeps on dragging, even the anti-Hizballah factions will have no choice but to grudgingly support them, at least temporarily.
As for the destruction of civilian infrastructure, that is part of the collective punishment policy that Israel adheres to, and is their way of "sending the message". I don't believe in the slightest the official "reason" given by the Israeli government, that of ensuring that the soldiers are not transported out of Lebanon. It makes no difference whether the soldiers are inside of Lebanon or not, because either way, they won't recover them. They won't find them inside of Lebanon or outside of Lebanon. If they couldn't retrieve the kidnapped soldier from Gaza, which is a fraction of land compared to Lebanon, do they seriously envision retrieving the kidnapped soldiers from Lebanon, assuming they're still there? Of course not. And to think that Hizballah will cower under pressure and simply hand the soldiers over because of the shelling is a pipe dream, and they know it. This is clearly a pretext by Israel to once again, "send the message" loud and clear, although if they keep this up, their strategy will surely backfire.
Finally, to everyone claiming that the Lebanese government should have rained Hizballah in a long time ago, please understand that such a proposition is simply impossible. First of all, Hizballah is more powerful than the Lebanese military. Lebanon barely has any military to speak of, while Hizballah is being helped militarily by Syria and Iran. Second of all, if you don't appreciate the fragility of the Lebanese societal fabric, you simply won't understand how delicate such a proposal is. Hizballah is supported by a large minority in Lebanon (over 40% of Lebanese in Lebanon are Shia, and wholeheartedly support Hizballah), and any faulty maneuvering by the majority anti-Hizballah government risks plunging Lebanon into a civil war. It's not as easy as simply claiming that the Lebanese government needs to disarm Hizballah. They would love to, but they simply can't, because of their military weakness, and because of the societal ramifications of such a move. Senora has been pleading on national television for a cease fire for the past few days, and attempting to establish his jurisdiction over Lebanon as acting prime minister, but to no avail. He's simply powerless to do anything. Think of him as Kofi Annan, and his government as the UN.
Here's a good article that lends credence to what I'm trying to say.
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Jul-17-2006 04:23 
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Fir3start3r
Armin Acolyte
Registered: Oct 2001
Location: Toronto, ON, Canada
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| quote: | Originally posted by Epicurus
You make a good point, and I'll try to explain my position with regards to this as best as I can. As I mentioned previously, Israel is hoping that a firm retaliation to the kidnapping is going to "send the message" to the Lebanese government and to the populace that an armed Hizballah patrolling the Southern Lebanese border with Israel is unacceptable, and that a very heavy price will be payed for any transgressions.
The Israeli operation is a delicate one, in that they must use only the necessary amount of force to make their point and avoid civilian casualties at all costs. As much as I despise the IDF, I doubt they're targeting civilians purposefully (although some may disagree with me and probably be able to put up a robust argument) as there is no strategic benefit to that whatsoever -- quite the contrary of course. In other words, the killing of civilians isn't part of their strategy. Bluntly, they're fucking up, and big time. And if they keep on fucking up, the reverse effect that you mentioned may indeed occur. The longer this operation drags on, the more this benefits Hizballah, and they know it. This is why I prefaced my earlier post with "If the situation does not escalate any further, and normalcy returns to Lebanon in the near future (i.e. one-two weeks)", because if this conflict spirals out of control and keeps on dragging, even the anti-Hizballah factions will have no choice but to grudgingly support them, at least temporarily.
As for the destruction of civilian infrastructure, that is part of the collective punishment policy that Israel adheres to, and is their way of "sending the message". I don't believe in the slightest the official "reason" given by the Israeli government, that of ensuring that the soldiers are not transported out of Lebanon. It makes no difference whether the soldiers are inside of Lebanon or not, because either way, they won't recover them. They won't find them inside of Lebanon or outside of Lebanon. If they couldn't retrieve the kidnapped soldier from Gaza, which is a fraction of land compared to Lebanon, do they seriously envision retrieving the kidnapped soldiers from Lebanon, assuming they're still there? Of course not. And to think that Hizballah will cower under pressure and simply hand the soldiers over because of the shelling is a pipe dream, and they know it. This is clearly a pretext by Israel to once again, "send the message" loud and clear, although if they keep this up, their strategy will surely backfire.
Finally, to everyone claiming that the Lebanese government should have rained Hizballah in a long time ago, please understand that such a proposition is simply impossible. First of all, Hizballah is more powerful than the Lebanese military. Lebanon barely has any military to speak of, while Hizballah is being helped militarily by Syria and Iran. Second of all, if you don't appreciate the fragility of the Lebanese societal fabric, you simply won't understand how delicate such a proposal is. Hizballah is supported by a large minority in Lebanon (over 40% of Lebanese in Lebanon are Shia, and wholeheartedly support Hizballah), and any faulty maneuvering by the majority anti-Hizballah government risks plunging Lebanon into a civil war. It's not as easy as simply claiming that the Lebanese government needs to disarm Hizballah. They would love to, but they simply can't, because of their military weakness, and because of the societal ramifications of such a move. Senora has been pleading on national television for a cease fire for the past few days, and attempting to establish his jurisdiction over Lebanon as acting prime minister, but to no avail. He's simply powerless to do anything. Think of him as Kofi Annan, and his government as the UN.
Here's a good article that lends credence to what I'm trying to say. |
Thanks Epicurus for the info. 
___________________
"...End? No, the journey doesn't end here. Death is just another path...one that we all must take.
The grey rain-curtain of this world rolls back, and all change to silver glass...and then you see it...
...white shores...and beyond...the far green country under a swift sunrise."
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Jul-17-2006 04:28 
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jonSun
Supreme tranceaddict
Registered: Dec 2003
Location: Chicago CTA #77
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| quote: | Originally posted by Epicurus
You make a good point, and I'll try to explain my position with regards to this as best as I can. As I mentioned previously, Israel is hoping that a firm retaliation to the kidnapping is going to "send the message" to the Lebanese government and to the populace that an armed Hizballah patrolling the Southern Lebanese border with Israel is unacceptable, and that a very heavy price will be payed for any transgressions.
The Israeli operation is a delicate one, in that they must use only the necessary amount of force to make their point and avoid civilian casualties at all costs. As much as I despise the IDF, I doubt they're targeting civilians purposefully (although some may disagree with me and probably be able to put up a robust argument) as there is no strategic benefit to that whatsoever -- quite the contrary of course. In other words, the killing of civilians isn't part of their strategy. Bluntly, they're fucking up, and big time. And if they keep on fucking up, the reverse effect that you mentioned may indeed occur. The longer this operation drags on, the more this benefits Hizballah, and they know it. This is why I prefaced my earlier post with "If the situation does not escalate any further, and normalcy returns to Lebanon in the near future (i.e. one-two weeks)", because if this conflict spirals out of control and keeps on dragging, even the anti-Hizballah factions will have no choice but to grudgingly support them, at least temporarily.
As for the destruction of civilian infrastructure, that is part of the collective punishment policy that Israel adheres to, and is their way of "sending the message". I don't believe in the slightest the official "reason" given by the Israeli government, that of ensuring that the soldiers are not transported out of Lebanon. It makes no difference whether the soldiers are inside of Lebanon or not, because either way, they won't recover them. They won't find them inside of Lebanon or outside of Lebanon. If they couldn't retrieve the kidnapped soldier from Gaza, which is a fraction of land compared to Lebanon, do they seriously envision retrieving the kidnapped soldiers from Lebanon, assuming they're still there? Of course not. And to think that Hizballah will cower under pressure and simply hand the soldiers over because of the shelling is a pipe dream, and they know it. This is clearly a pretext by Israel to once again, "send the message" loud and clear, although if they keep this up, their strategy will surely backfire.
Finally, to everyone claiming that the Lebanese government should have rained Hizballah in a long time ago, please understand that such a proposition is simply impossible. First of all, Hizballah is more powerful than the Lebanese military. Lebanon barely has any military to speak of, while Hizballah is being helped militarily by Syria and Iran. Second of all, if you don't appreciate the fragility of the Lebanese societal fabric, you simply won't understand how delicate such a proposal is. Hizballah is supported by a large minority in Lebanon (over 40% of Lebanese in Lebanon are Shia, and wholeheartedly support Hizballah), and any faulty maneuvering by the majority anti-Hizballah government risks plunging Lebanon into a civil war. It's not as easy as simply claiming that the Lebanese government needs to disarm Hizballah. They would love to, but they simply can't, because of their military weakness, and because of the societal ramifications of such a move. Senora has been pleading on national television for a cease fire for the past few days, and attempting to establish his jurisdiction over Lebanon as acting prime minister, but to no avail. He's simply powerless to do anything. Think of him as Kofi Annan, and his government as the UN.
Here's a good article that lends credence to what I'm trying to say. |
Nice post
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Jul-17-2006 04:32 
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