|
| quote: | Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN
yeah, its an interesting and miserable line theyre walking there. as i understand it there is definitely a measurable anti-hezbollah sentiment within the country & government, but i dont see how bombing the country back 20 years is going to weaken the organisation.
more likely, it will increase hezbollah's hold on the nation, in the sense that a government will be weakened by these tactics more so than a guerilla outfit. its not hezbollah's bridges or airports theyre bombing after all. and you dont need to experience mounting civilian deaths to forsee this action can and will swell hezbollah's ranks.
at the end of the day, regardless of fault, its a terribly sad state of affairs and we're gonna get to watch the UN parade its lack of significance yet again. |
Indeed, it is a very fine line that they're walking. The longer this goes, the more likely it becomes that the entire nation will rally behind Hizballah, because they almost have no choice at that point. That's precisely why I believe the Israeli campaign won't last past the end of this week, barring some completely unforseen circumstances. Now watch my prediction fall flat on its face.
As for Israel hurting the organization "materially", I think they already have and will continue to do so over the coming week. They're trying to target their strongholds in the South and in the suburbs of Beirut, and although they most definitely will not eliminate them, they will have inflicted some damage on their operational capabilities. In fact, according to the Israeli military, they believe they've already reduced their capabilities by 25% (click here).
As for the longer term effect of their actions, I think they're trying to simultaneously weaken Hizballah militarily by bombing them while providing the necessary pretext for the anti-Hizballah Lebanese factions to eventually disarm them, allowing the latter to point to the widespread destruction resulting from having allowed Hizballah to roam the South unchecked (so they'll claim). Whether this strategy will actually work or not is an entirely different matter, but no one ever claimed that IDF tactics were any good to begin with 
|